Sunday, July 23, 2017

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Toyin:



Toyin:

Clearly you dont know the meaning of schizophrenia in the clinical sense.
Melodrama is not the goal of politics even though politicians indulge in it; certainly not the goal of intellectual analysis.

Everyone has been pointing fingers at northern politician backers of Boko Haram; trouble is no one has been able to name names backed by evidence!

A cardinal axiom of Law on which western educated Nigerian intellectual elites rely upon is: accused are presumed innocent until proven guilty.  When we cant even clearly identify the accused (backers) where do we go from here?  Intimidation wont work!




Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.


-------- Original message --------
From: Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com>
Date: 23/07/2017 10:24 (GMT+00:00)
To: usaafricadialogue <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Toyin:

Olayinka,

One becomes schizophrenic when one is unable to develop a perception of reality that is reasonably in accord with conventional fact, as you consistently  demonstrate.

You keep insisting on keeping yourself in this cage, a self created trap you may share  with some die hard delusionists about Nigerian politics.

If you were to be more balanced in your effort to create a picture of Nigerian politics as proceeding on a path of inevitable progress like a machine devoid of human agency, your reasoning would be more helpful.

How do your latest postulations contribute to the discussion?

The discussion is not abut the relationship between Nigeria and the Israeli/Palestinian crisis, where Israel has the upper hand, nor is about Islamic terrorists in London or the Korean effort to flex muscles in their region, but about a nation whose very identity is at stake. No amount of critical universalising will eliminate that.

As for your triumvirate proposal, the challenge of Nigeria goes beyond that to issues you are determined to ignore.

How valid is your suggestion abut the Middle Belt's voting capacity in the legislative houses? Is the arithmetic clear cut as you claim?

I dont think so.

thanks

toyin






On 23 July 2017 at 05:51, Olayinka Agbetuyi <yagbetuyi@hotmail.com> wrote:
Toyin:

You seem to still be on the war path describing all and sundry as suffering from psychosis.  This is hysteria.

I have acknowledged some of the issues you refer to and still maintain that if all of the Middle Belt put their money where their moth is and all the other zones apart from the core North vote en mass in the same direction no amount of veto power and local government creations in the core North will overturn the will of the rest of Nigeria.  This is simple arithmetic.

Intellectualism has to be displayed with responsibility.

As Ayo Olukotun maintained last week Nigeria is not unique in this climate od democractic vortex. 

From Washington to London to Brussels  to Pyongyang its a dicey period.  I watched last night a resurgence of crisis over the temple mount i n Jerusalem.  Its an age old problem.  It is still intractable. It has not led to the end of the world. By yhe grace of all the Orisa the Nigerian problems will not lead to the end of the world.

Yes, there are some of Buharis handlers blowing hot and cold like the Biafranists desperate not to be left out of the power calculus we must continue to pray for the recovery of Buhari rather than his demise so the crisis does not deepen.  

Do you now see the advantages of a triumviral presidency over a one man presidency?  If the chair of a triumvirate (who is merely a primus inter pares) is this sick in the term of office would there be this much ballyho?

This is why the structure of governance at the centre needs reform.



Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.


-------- Original message --------
From: Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com>
Date: 21/07/2017 20:35 (GMT+00:00)
To: usaafricadialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Toyin:

Boxbe This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (toyin.adepoju@gmail.com) Add cleanup rule | More info
Olayinka, 

May one not see your position and that of those holdouts, particuarly in the SW, who, in defense of their effort to reach Aso Rock through the Buhari allegiance,  still insist that : 

"The fact that northerners fill up the security agencies now doesnt mean much. The Acting President and the Senate Presidency can make adequate changes by working together to achieve the desired goals seeing by the demographic details of that map that the core North does not constitute the majority in Nigeria"

as tat of people  suffering from  a collective psychosis, a disconnection from reality?

Are you referring to Acting President Osinbajo whom the world world can see is existing between a rock and a hard place, the rock being  the proponents of 'power must return to the North',  who did everything possible, from fanning Boko Haram embers and possibly funding the group, to enabling the Chibok kidnap saga through Borno state governor Kassim Shettima's keeping the Chibok school open agst the orders of the fed govt and the pleas of WAEC, people who, with Tinubu, did everything to rubbish GEJ and went to the great trouble of polishing Buhari who would otherwise have been unsellable in Southern Nigeria and who got their wish only to have the spectre of a Yaradua scenario looming over them, on account of which Buhari's condition remains a closely guarded secret, and whose representatives have warned that if Buhari passes away Osinbajo must not contest in 2019, with Osinbajo's mentor, Tinubu keeping a very low profile even as Buhari's cards, which he had played in disdain of the SW component of the APC alliance are now seen not to have been the wisest of cards after all, since no human is in control of all the possible configurations of history, a dicey situation in which  everyone is gingerly alert for the decisive outcome, is that the Osinbajo who will do anything decisive in terms of the control of the security agencies or other strategic issues?

Is it Saraki? Does his life go beyond  beginning and ending with political strategising? Do you see him as having any national vision? Can you point to significant no of initiatives from him, if any, that suggest he has a vision that embraces Nigeria? Is that the person who will do anything decisive about control of the army, a central source of power in many weak political systems like Nigeria?

You refer to the certainty that ' It is by the concerted effort of the Middle Belt, the South West, the South East and thr South South that the effort by the core North to truncate democracy through Sharia (if all such plans exist) can be successfully checkmated in both houses.'

Are you aware of the descriptions of the disproportionate voting power of Northern legislators on account of the disproportionate creation of local govts and other political blocs in the North by military leaders most of them Northern Muslims by way of coups, meaning they have practically veto power in the legislative houses?

Note, the Middle Belt elders and the Christian representatives did not state right wing Northern Muslims, whom they named Islamists,  are using the Nigerian political apparatus in a transparent manner or using that alone as  a strategy of domination. They described them as using a combination of deception and terrorism, represented by efforts to grant land belonging to other Nigerians for  use by the private business of Fulani herdsmen  and the military activities represented by Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen terrorism.

Should a group of people who are not perplexed by the ideological correlations between an Atiku threatening Nigeria with violent change bcs a Northern Muslim, namely himself, was not made PDP Presidential candidate for 2011, a position that wold have led to the Presidency and the 2011 anti-govt, anti-Christian  centred Boko Haram escalation and the sheer refusal to take action on the contemporary Fulani herdsmen militia terrorist  scourge as demonstrations of attempts at national domination not be be described as suffering from a group psychosis that makes accurate perception of reality difficult?

thanks

toyin



On 22 July 2017 at 01:04, Olayinka Agbetuyi <yagbetuyi@hotmail.com> wrote:
Toyin:

I share your concerns and I think given the patterns of violence people like you all over Nigeria can understandably come to your conclusion but such conclusions are not necessarily justified.

This is why we have in group psychoanalysis a condition known as group mass hysteria triggered by collective group disasters and distress (what in Yoruba psychoanalysis is referred to as 'boo lo koo yago')

Groups can react irrationally to past source of danger without clear analytical pattern.

It may be undeniable that some Fulani herdsmen see the presence of Buhari in the Statehouse as a cover to perpetrate illegalities and horrendous crime, that by irself does not mean Buhari deliberately wants to provide cover, or excuse crime.  The latter position has to be proven separately.

The danger of mass hystetia is that law abiding Fulani may be attacked in a tit for tat which may lead either to a Fulani targeted genocide nationally or an escalation ( with requisite defensive rrethorics) all out religious war nationwide.  That would be the result of a mutually antagonistic vicious circularity of mass hysteria.

I have seen the NECF  piece which you forwarded from the vanguard.  The reaction of the Christian body is an indication of infectious mass hysteria at its worst: when it affects otherwise rational leaders when the enormity of the scope of the source of hysteria seems overwhelming.

The zonal map shown in that write up indicates the most lasting method of redress: Insistence on tennets of democracy.  If that geo-political pattern is indeed true it follows that the whole of the North let alone the whole of Nigeria can never be ruled by Sharia  Law.  It shows the Sharia Law advocates in the core North to be the minority.  This group in the Murtala Muhammed junta had tried to reassert their control through  the overthrow of Gowon but were unsuccessful as the Middle Belt plotted an abortive return which propelled Obasanjo into office instead. (This was why I said the Military as an institution is the single most potent threat to Nigetias stability)
 This was why Obasanjo inaugurated the first prototype of triumviral rule in Nigeria by ruling with Danjuma (MiddleBelt and YarAdua core North)  With this he managed the stability needed to hand over power to democratic governance.

With the core North seeing that with the economic uncertainties of the early 80s they might lose power to Awo key northern elements in the military staged the coup to retain power in the core North until the economic climate improved.  This was the principal reason that although Asre Abiola won June 12 IBB refused to hand over power because the main goal of the take over had been defeated.  

The key think to note is that the Middle Belt which had been propping  up the core North since July 66 and under IBB in the name of one North seem to have decisively changed their allegiance - And that is the dividend of democracy.

Only through democracy can a lasting solution be found to the problem of Fulani herdsmen and Boko Haram.

The fact that northerners fill up the security agencies now doesnt mean much. The Acting President and the Senate Presidency can make adequate changes by working together to achieve the desired goals seeing by the demographic details of that map that the core North does not constitute the majority in Nigeria.  It is by the concerted effort of the Middle Belt, the South West, the South East and thr South South that the effort by the core North to truncate democracy through Sharia (if all such plans exist) can be successfully checkmated in both houses.



Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------
From: Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com>
Date: 21/07/2017 10:40 (GMT+00:00)
To:
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Toyin:

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With all due respect, an odd perspective.

So, instead of encouraging a group of business people to develop modern modern methods of running their business, you chose to pursue that business using the Nigerian army.

In the midst of a nationwide campaign of terrorism by the same group instead of investigating and prosecuting that terrorism, you chose to fortify the terrorists using the Nigerian army.

You are doing all this in favour of the very characters who belong to the same ethnicity as yourself in a polity in which ethnic identification is central above national interests, and in your  government which you have defined in terms of appointments defined by members of your ethnicity, and some are seeing you as operating dispassionately.

How logical is such perception?

Why should the cry be constantly invoked abt Nigerian national resources being used to establish ranches for Fulani herdsmen, all bcs the herdsmen have become a security scourge? What role is being played by the rich owners of those cows the herdsmen herd as well as the Northern Muslim elite who run the Miyetti Allah, the herdsmen's organisation?

A  response cannot be described as 'level headed' that dismisses as a petulant insistence on 'Fulani this Fulani that' an effort to map  a national campaign of terror working in tandem with politicians, a campaign that has generated outcries of pain and consternation across the nation in the face of thousands of murders by members of a particular ethnic group associated with a particular trade, with various state governors taking military and legislative action agst the specific perpetrators of this scourge, perpetrators  known as belonging to a specific  ethnic group and who thus identify themselves with this group, with various organisations in civil society like the Middle Belt elders warning of impending war in the face of this scourge .

As for this other escapist perspective:

'What is wrong is anybody trespassing and destroying any other person's property - and sometimes killing people   - while carrying out his or her business.  These are criminal herdsmen trespassers with murderous outcome,  not "Fulani herdsmen". '

Its an imaginary scenario from a person who wants to rewrite history. The incidence of property destruction and individual murder has become a national epidemic. It is not an issue of 'sometimes killing people'. The writer also chooses to pretend that the systematic campaign of massacre by Fulani terrorism, exemplified by the murdered thousands from the Middle Belt to Agatu to Nimbo is fiction.

The cattle rearing business is a monopoly  of the Fulani. The headship of the Miyetti Allah, the cattle rearers  organisation, is Fulani or Hausa-Fulani. Those who openly justified the Agatu massacre identified themselves as Fulani pursuing an ethnic agenda. Those who carried out the Nimbo massacre are Fulani as demonstrated by the peace talks the governor of Enugu state carried out in the face of news they were coming in to attack, efforts that failed in the face of collusion by govt security agencies. The politicians working to protect the interests of the herdsmen agst those of other Nigerians are not only Hausa-Fulani but even they identify their beneficiaries as Fulani herdsmen.

The only Hausa-Fulani politician making efforts to address the problem, but even then in a way that avoids the systemic massacre the terrorists are known for is senator Shehu Sani , holding meetings with fellow Fulani on the challenge. He does not pretend that the challenge is not a Fulani problem nor does he pretend those implicated are not from Nigeria, one strategy of obfuscation from the govt. 

So, why the struggle to pretend about the ethnicity of the terrorists?

Furthermore, how realistic is it to separate the Fulani herdsmen in general from  the terrorist  strategy they have become associated through their own actions and the concerted support of Hausa-Fulani politicians for those activities?

Is it not escapist to seek a clean dis-identification even as some rightly seek to separate bad from evil eggs?

Is what we are observing not a kind of warfare that blurs the distinction between a military wing, individual murderers and rapists  and the  group as a whole  by mobilising the entire demographic as a potential fighting force free to attack at will and with a strike force in wait to protect its interests, a military strike force that is recurrently activated in various contexts?

thanks

toyin






On 21 July 2017 at 14:59, Olayinka Agbetuyi <yagbetuyi@hotmail.com> wrote:
I thought it was being presented to the group yesterday when I sent it as usual.

So here goes:



Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.


-------- Original message --------
From: Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com>
Date: 21/07/2017 00:03 (GMT+00:00)
To: Olayinka Agbetuyi <yagbetuyi@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: Toyin:

thanks.

why not present this point in the group so i can respond publicly?

thanks

toyin

On 20 July 2017 at 23:22, Olayinka Agbetuyi <yagbetuyi@hotmail.com> wrote:
It seems to me that the real reason the FG drafted in the Nigerian Army to take charge of ranching is to de-ethnicize ranching and defuse tension yet you refuse to give credit where credit is due choosing instead to pillory southeasterners (like Gloria) who choose to be level headed rather than follow geo-political trend such as encapsulated in CAOs sweeping declarative "Im from the Southeast?"

Isnt it only when a trained disciplined national
military force accountable to the C-in-C is in charge ( rather than an ethnic band of armed herdsmen accountable to nobody) that war can be averted and state militias rendered unnecessary?

This Government seems to be responding to the hues and cries of its nationals yet it is damn them if they do and damn them if they dont!

I was among those who called on the Acting President not to sermonize his troops but assign them specific tasks in his vision of nation building. 

Here then is a crucial plank of the role of the Army in nation building.

The FG can build on the potential success of this strategy by investing a large part of recovered loot in paying off and resettling herdsmen in alternative trades while establishing modern national ranches across the country for the benefits of all.
 
 











Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.


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