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USA Africa Dialogue Series - [MUST READ] The Court of Public Opinion: Tinubu and Nigeria's Democratic Crossroads

[MUST READ] The Court of Public Opinion: Tinubu and Nigeria's Democratic Crossroads

https://thisdawn.com/court-of-public-opinion-tinubu-nigerias-democratic-crossroads/

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USA Africa Dialogue Series - What Uber’s exit says about Nigeria’s reform economy

What Uber’s exit says about Nigeria’s reform economy

Uber’s departure is neither proof that Nigeria’s reforms are failing nor an event Nigeria should dismiss as merely a corporate decision. It offers a useful window into the difficult transition from a large market to a genuinely investable economy.

John Onyeukwu | Policy & Reform Column, Business a.m. | Sept 07 –Sept13, 2026 | https://businessamlive.com/what-ubers-exit-says-about-nigerias-reform-economy/

Nigeria has spent the past two years asking investors to believe in its economic reform story. Uber’s decision to leave after 12 years therefore raises a broader question: what does that reform story look like from the balance sheet of a multinational company?

Uber ended its Nigerian operations on September 2, citing “evolving business priorities and investment focus” across Africa. It also exited Uganda while retaining operations in other African markets. The company is simultaneously restructuring globally and reallocating capital towards areas it considers strategically important. It has also said that its Nigerian exit was unrelated to the recent dispute involving the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) and e-hailing operations at airports.

That context matters. Uber’s departure cannot responsibly be presented as a verdict on Nigeria’s reforms. But neither should the Nigerian operating environment be treated as irrelevant simply because Uber has offered a broader corporate explanation.

My perspective, informed by my engagement with Agence France-Presse (AFP) on the decision, is that the more useful question is what the episode reveals about the interaction between economic reform, operating costs, regulation, consumer purchasing power and investment returns.

A multinational does not ordinarily decide whether to remain in a country because of one policy announcement or regulatory dispute. It assesses the cumulative economics of the market, competitive pressures, future prospects and the opportunity cost of deploying capital there rather than elsewhere. The question, therefore, is not simply whether Nigeria caused Uber to leave, but whether the conditions under which businesses operate are sufficiently attractive for them to remain, reinvest and expand.

Nigeria’s economic reforms were undertaken to correct serious structural distortions. The removal of petrol subsidies and reform of the foreign-exchange regime were intended to improve fiscal sustainability and restore greater functionality to markets.

There are also signs of improving macroeconomic performance. Real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 3.89 per cent in the first quarter. That does not settle the reform debate, but it makes it difficult to sustain the simplistic argument that the reform programme has produced nothing but economic deterioration.

Yet macroeconomic improvement and business-level hardship can exist simultaneously. A reform can be economically necessary at the macro level while imposing substantial adjustment costs at the micro level.

For a ride-hailing platform, fuel prices, vehicle maintenance, exchange-rate volatility and inflation are not abstract statistics. They affect the cost of every trip. Drivers need adequate earnings, passengers remain sensitive to fares, and platforms must generate sufficient margins to justify continued investment. This creates a difficult triangle between what passengers can afford, what drivers need to earn and what platforms need to make the business commercially sustainable.

The policy challenge is therefore not simply to remove distortions, but to ensure that the adjustment process does not undermine the productive activity that reform is ultimately intended to support.

Uber’s exit also exposes a persistent misunderstanding about market size. Nigeria’s population and urbanisation create enormous commercial potential. But potential demand is not the same as purchasing power, and purchasing power is not the same as sustainable commercial returns.

Population creates potential demand; purchasing power converts that potential into revenue; sustainable revenue retains investment.

Nigeria still has substantial demand for app-based transportation. Bolt, inDrive and local operators remain active, so Uber’s departure does not mean that the market has disappeared. The likely effect is greater competition among the remaining platforms for Uber’s riders and drivers. But the important question is whether those businesses can serve the market profitably.

Ride-hailing is particularly sensitive to economic conditions because platforms must balance consumer affordability against driver earnings and their own operating costs. When fuel, maintenance, and other costs rise while consumers resist higher fares, the commercial space available to the platform narrows. This is why Nigeria can be simultaneously a large market and a difficult market.

The same issue extends beyond ride-hailing. Manufacturers face energy and logistics costs; technology companies confront infrastructure and foreign-exchange pressures; retailers depend on consumer purchasing power. Across sectors, investors ultimately ask whether the expected return justifies the risks and costs of operating in the market.

The FAAN controversy provides another dimension. Because Uber’s exit occurred around the same period as regulatory uncertainty concerning e-hailing operations at Nigerian airports, speculation about a connection was inevitable. But timing is not causation. Uber has expressly rejected the FAAN dispute as a reason for its departure.

That explanation should be respected unless evidence emerges to establish otherwise.

There is nevertheless a broader regulatory lesson. Investors do not expect governments to eliminate regulation. They expect rules to be clear, proportionate, consistently applied and predictable enough to allow them to price risk.

Good regulation does not eliminate business risk; it makes that risk more predictable. For businesses operating on tight margins, uncertainty can itself become a cost. Regulatory agencies therefore need not choose between effective oversight and investment attractiveness. The objective should be a regulatory environment in which legitimate public-interest requirements coexist with transparency, coordination and predictability.

Nigeria’s reform conversation has understandably focused on fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilisation, foreign exchange, debt sustainability and GDP growth. These are necessary measures of macroeconomic health. But an economy ultimately exists through businesses, workers, households and consumers. The macro tells us whether the economy is becoming more stable. The micro tells us whether that stability is becoming economically usable.

A government can improve its fiscal position while businesses continue to struggle with high operating costs. Foreign-exchange reform can improve market functioning while businesses remain exposed to input-price volatility. Inflation can moderate while households continue to experience the purchasing-power losses accumulated during the inflationary period.

The ultimate test of reform is therefore what kind of productive economy emerges after the initial distortions have been removed. If subsidy reform strengthens public finances, the gains should eventually contribute to infrastructure and productivity. If foreign-exchange reform improves market functioning, businesses should progressively gain greater capacity to plan investment. If government revenues increase, citizens and businesses should see the benefits through better public services and lower transaction costs.

This is where reform moves from stabilisation to transformation.

Uber’s departure should neither be used as ammunition against the Tinubu administration’s reforms nor dismissed because competing platforms remain. Both responses would be too simplistic.

There is no evidence that Uber’s exit represents a generalised flight from Nigeria. Its stated rationale is broader, its simultaneous withdrawal from Uganda matters, and its global restructuring demonstrates that the company is making strategic decisions about capital allocation.

But Nigeria should also resist the assumption that its market size guarantees investor commitment. Every investor ultimately confronts a basic question: does the expected return justify the costs and risks of remaining in this market?

That calculation applies far beyond ride-hailing, to manufacturing, logistics, financial technology, telecommunications, technology and retail.

Nigeria therefore needs to think beyond investment attraction towards investment retention. Attracting a company is only the beginning. The more consequential achievement is creating conditions in which it expands, employs more people, reinvests profits and encourages additional capital to follow.

That requires credible institutions, reliable infrastructure, predictable regulation, manageable operating costs and an economy in which consumers have sufficient purchasing power to sustain demand.

Uber’s 12-year presence demonstrates that Nigeria can attract and sustain globally recognised businesses. Its departure demonstrates that attracting investment and retaining investment are different achievements.

A company can enter because an opportunity appears compelling and later reassess because its costs, competitive position, strategic priorities or expected returns have changed. That is not unique to Nigeria. Capital is mobile, and multinational companies constantly compare markets.

But precisely because capital is mobile, Nigeria must pay attention to the conditions that influence those calculations.

Uber’s exit is therefore neither a verdict on Nigeria nor an insignificant corporate footnote. It is a reminder that economic reform eventually has to be experienced in the real economy, in the cost of running a business, the purchasing power of households, the income of workers and the confidence of investors to commit capital for the long term.

Nigeria has the market. It has the people. It has considerable economic potential. It also has the entrepreneurial energy, natural resources and strategic importance to remain one of Africa’s most consequential investment destinations.

But potential does not automatically become investment and investment does not automatically become sustained economic value. The decisive issue is whether Nigeria can create the institutional and economic conditions that allow businesses to convert opportunity into predictable returns while creating jobs, expanding productive capacity and contributing to broader prosperity.

The challenge, therefore, is to convert Nigeria’s enormous advantages into an investment proposition strong enough not merely to attract capital, but to retain it, deepen it and multiply it. That means an economy in which investors can plan beyond the next policy announcement, businesses can manage their costs, consumers can sustain demand, and institutions provide sufficient predictability for long-term decisions.

The ultimate measure of reform is not simply whether Nigeria can persuade investors to come. It is whether the economy gives them compelling reasons to remain when the initial excitement of a new market has passed and the harder questions of cost, risk and return begin to matter.

Nigeria does not merely need investors to enter. It needs an economy in which staying, reinvesting, expanding and scaling make commercial sense, and in which the success of those investments translates into greater productivity, better jobs and rising prosperity for Nigerians.

 

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John Onyeukwu
http://www.policy.hu/onyeukwu/

 http://about.me/onyeukwu
“Let us move forward to fight poverty, to establish equity, and assure peace for the next generation.”
-- James D. Wolfensohn
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