Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's Boko Haram President Elect

Oga IBK: your tribute is fitting. Baba Kadiri's energy, as well as his abilities, are humbling. About 40 years ago, he was instrumental to getting Nigerians in Sweden to form a functional socio-cultural group; the only Nigerian embassy in Scandinavia is today - and has always been - located in Stockholm. Baba ("His Majesty"; re: the irrepressible Cornelius Hamelberg), will be 75 next year; his memory and agility are then no less than profoundly humbling. When Baba emerged here, one of our shinning lights regrettably insinuated that Baba was fictional; yet, none of anything above is privileged information...


Prof. Zalanga: There's a wealth of insight lurking in the data from this and past elections. INEC has been challenged to provide online all the data starting from the 2003 elections; they will have the time when the paperwork for the current elections are completed. Credible data is sacred; it unburdens from 'arriving' at conclusions unsupported by the facts; it could also help with thinking deeply about premises that may be misleading.

You wrote: "For instance if the shift in Southwest vote is "ethnic and malicious" how can that framework account for a dramatic shift in Bauchi State politics where the governor is PDP and all key officials are PDP?"

The 2011 and 2012 data could be employed to show that the "IF" part of the above statement is suspicious, and profoundly so, and certainly not in the context of the (existing, basic) data from the South East and South South. The "shift" could also be contextualised: some states (all in the same region) have voter turnout rates of 60% to 68%; the average for the country is about 45%...


Oga Bode: Here, one must resort to an old trick: if management appears rather unhappy with the "answer", then the data must be provided as clearly as possible... Here are the arithmetic results of the interesting "what if" scenarios you suggested:

(To be read as, for example: "Had the South East given exactly the same number of votes to Buhari and Jonathan as in 2011, then Jonathan wins with 126,494 or 0.44% of 2015 TVV (total valid votes) ", etc etc)

South East: Jonathan wins with 126,494 or 0.44% of 2015 TVV
North West: Jonathan wins with 146,018 or 0.51% of 2015 TVV
South West: Jonathan wins with 504,826 or 1.77% of 2015 TVV

North Central: Buhari wins with 355,641   or 1.25% of 2015 TVV
South South:  Buhari wins with 799,264   or 2.80% of 2015 TVV
North East:    Buhari wins with 2,311,966 or 8.10% of 2015 TVV

Buhari won in 2015 with a margin of 2,571,759 votes.

To a report like this: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/buhari-victory-is-northyoruba-gang-up-against-n-delta-igbo-middle-belt-groups/ one could respond that in 2015, the two largest improvement margins ("shifts"?) for Buhari were in the SE & SS:

(1) the South East gave Buhari 9.8 times the # of votes he got in 2011 (and gave Jonathan 51% less)

(2) the South South gave Buhari 8.4 times the # of votes he got in 2011 (Jonathan got 23% less)

(3) while the South South returned 77% of the votes to Jonathan in 2011, the South West returned 65%, and the South East returned only 49%. 

These are admittedly preliminary/elementary inferences from the data - the dynamics of the APC coalition would necessarily complicate the arithmetic, as will the introduction of Card Readers - but they are nonetheless illuminating. And, of course, these numbers are useful only to the extent that we remain open-minded regarding their interpretive value.

Leke Olalemi




On 1 April 2015 at 19:23, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:

Salimonu Kadiri,

I do not know who you are or what and where you descended from. I  met you on this virtual world and you have restored my faith in Nigeria.

You are one fantastic and patriotic guy who is a blessing to Nigeria and a shining star of Nigerian industry. Throughout this campaign when the spin doctors came out with their panoply of lies you stepped in and with clinical accuracy punctured their balloons of lies.

What beat me hollow is your ability and speed. While I was still mulling the lie and articulating the best way to burst the bubble you are way out there with startling articulation put a needle to there bubble and with your razor sharp intellect shred their tissue of lies. I congratulate you and praise you to the high heavens.

I wish you know how many times I copied and pasted your posts and interventions to thrash the liars, forgers, and the fabricators of lies and misinformation. You are indeed a patriot and a great person.

God bless you and God bless Nigeria.

Cheers.

IBK

On 1 Apr 2015 15:00, "Salimonu Kadiri" <ogunlakaiye@hotmail.com> wrote:
15,416,221 Nigerians voted for Buhari to become President of Nigeria. Are the 15,416,221 electorates Boko Harams?
 

From: lekeolalemi@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2015 13:54:30 +0200
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's Boko Haram President Elect
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com

Below are the percentages of the total votes won by this "Boko Haram President" in 2011 and 2015:

2011 2015
 FCT Abuja  34% 48%
 North Central  31% 59%
 North East  62% 78%
 North West  60% 84%
 South East  0.4% 7.3%
 South South  0.8% 8.1%
 South West  7% 56%

Do not let the data  - nor common decency - influence your prejudice... "Boko Haram president" indeed.

Leke Olalemi


On 1 April 2015 at 13:26, olugbenga Ojo <olugbenga.ojo@gmail.com> wrote:
The main participant has accepted defeat I wonder what you want to achieve by calling names. Lets join hands to repair and rebuild Nigeria. Constructive criticism should follow the election declared results moreso when the contestant who lost had even reached out to the winner. I do not know the extent you would have gone if president Goodluck Jonathan did not accept defeat and congratulate GMD. We all should learn from whatever the mistakes of the incumbent president are to guide ourselves when in any position of authority.

Regards 

On Wed, Apr 1, 2015 at 11:20 AM, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:

Toying,

You are a sore loser!  You continue with your lies in your campaign of calumny after elections!

Cheers.

IBK

On 1 Apr 2015 11:06, "Oluwatoyin Adepoju" <toyindanteifa@gmail.com> wrote:
                                                                                                                                  


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RE: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Beyond the Narrative of Change: the Symbolism of Jonathan's Defeat

What does "kind of democracy" really mean?

The problem as I see it is not the "Kind of democracy" or system but the people who practice it and their culture. Any other "kind of democracy" would be expensive if the players and culture are the same. Could it be the case that  "waste" is embedded in the DNA so to speak, of Nigerians politics?

 

oa

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Moses Ebe Ochonu
Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2015 10:31 AM
To: USAAfricaDialogue
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Beyond the Narrative of Change: the Symbolism of Jonathan's Defeat

 

The kind of democracy we practice is way too expensive and extremely divisive, especially for a country already divided by historical ethno-religious fault lines. This time around we dodged the bullet of post-election violence, and violence during the elections was minimal--thank God. But the rhetoric and exchanges between supporters of the two main camps in the run-up to the elections were the most bigoted, hateful, and bitter I have seen and read in my lifetime. We will be healing and rebuilding shattered relationships and solidarities to the extent possible until the next presidential elections in 2019. Which forces me to ask: can we literally afford to have billion dollar (that's about how much INEC requested for these elections) elections that create deep enmities and deepen our familiar fissures every four years? I don't know if this is sustainable and I suspect that the financial and sociopolitical costs of our "democracy" will be the subject of debate in the coming years. For how can one justify going through an exercise that is injurious to our lean finances and frail body politic every four years? Four years is a short time, and it means that the country is in perpetual campaign and political mode, leaving little time and room for governance and the construction of national bridges of solidarity. While we heal from the division of one election, the next one is upon us, unleashing its divisive fury that will consume and occupy us till the next election. And on an on it goes, taking a toll on the sociopolitical fabric of the country, or what's left of it. It's a fast turnaround that costs much in treasure, blood, and peace. 

 

However, while we have this "democracy," while we continue to search for a democratic model that suits our peculiar sociopolitical and fiscal anxieties, and for what it's worth, the idea of voters sending a clear message, now and then, to political incumbents (and ascendant oppositions) is important. That message is that there is a consequence for poor, indifferent, and callous governance--for complacency and abuse of power. For the past sixteen years, the PDP has serially abused Nigerians and shown scant regard for the anxieties and aspirations of the people. This approach to politics and governance deserves to be rejected and it has. 

 

This is the overarching message of this election, not the hysteria about change. This message was articulated brilliantly and simply by my friend, Enoch Obeto, during a roucous discussion on the elections by a group of Nigerians in my neck of the woods. His assessment was beautiful in its simplicity: Buhari or no Buhari, change or no change, let Jonathan and other elected officials know that if you disregard the needs of the people, or cozy up to corruption, Nigerians' favorite bete noire, you should not expect to be rewarded with continuation in office. 

 

If you believe that substantive change is about to come or that the fantastical promises in the APC presidential manifesto is realistic in light of depressed oil crude oil prices, falling Naira value, and ongoing insurgency, you will be disappointed. 

 

But if you believe, like Enoch Obeto does, that what was at stake in the election was the imperative of punishing the profligacy, incompetence, and indifference of the PDP dynasty, whose latest face is Jonathan, then you will not be disappointed no matter what happens in the Muhammadu Buhari era. You will see the election only as a point of departure for struggles of accountability. You will see it as a clear message to the APC too, which will do well to learn from the errors of the PDP. And if Buhari manages to find a way to manage the sharks and rogues around him well enough to fulfill SOME of his promises, that would be gravy on the steak, icing on the cake.

 

--

There is enough in the world for everyone's need but not for everyone's greed.


---Mohandas Gandhi

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Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - President Jonathan Issues Official Statement On 2015 Presidential Elections

My wife called my attention to the fact that we did not have the kinds of
high profile political assassinations that characterized previous
administrations. One must not forget this. It is also a great tribute to
Goodluck Jonathan.

On 4/1/15, 10:11 PM, "Anunoby, Ogugua" <AnunobyO@lincolnu.edu> wrote:

>Congratulations to Buhari and his APC for their victory in the recently
>concluded presidential elections. The job they applied for and have been
>elected to do, they must now do faithfully. Nigerians are already looking
>to cash the "promissory notes" they issued to them. All the best to them.
>Jonathan has done what Buhari after each of three presidential elections
>defeats, was not honorable and man enough to do. Yes, Jonathan could have
>led Nigeria better than he did. One may argue therefore, that Buhari did
>not win the election; Jonathan lost it. The presumption must be that
>Jonathan gave his opportunity to lead Nigeria, his best shot. The
>election results suggest that for a majority of Nigerians, his best
>effort was not enough to persuade them to re-elect him which I might add,
>is okay.
>It is both exemplary and instructive that Jonathan did not seem to be
>hesitant in accepting the election verdict of fellow citizens. Jonathan
>has demonstrated boldly and elegantly that elections, even presidential
>elections, should never be matters of life or death. He has saved Nigeria
>and Nigerians, the drama and embarrassment of the horrid dances that
>usually takes place in election tribunals and the courts after hotly
>contested election. This dance took place after the last three
>presidential elections.
>The indications presently, are that Jonathan will vacate the office of
>president, without threatening like some before him, to rain fire and
>brimstone on the country. One can only imagine the intolerable pressure
>he must have endured from all comers, not to concede victory to Buhari
>without a fight. There was after all always enough complaints about the
>conduct of the elections, to support a challenge of INEC's certified
>results. He is the incumbent. Jonathan successfully resisted the pressure
>and did the right and honorable thing in a timely manner, as would be
>expected of an educated, patriotic, and peace-loving man and politician
>of integrity. For this brave, graceful, and noble act of patriotism, all
>is forgiven and his service more appreciated. He has cut his name in the
>stone of Nigeria's political history.
>The hope must now be that Jonathan:
>i) will not be the last defeated presidential or other election
>candidate who will not threaten to make
> the country ungovernable,
>ii) will retire from active partisan politics, respectfully allow his
>successor to govern, help to keep the
> peace, and restore and enhance the deserved dignity of the position
>of former president, that a recent
> former president who continues to dance naked in the public square,
>has disgustingly and shamelessly
> refused to do.
>
>Enjoy your earned retirement sir.
>
>oa
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
>[mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of
>udoguei@appstate.edu
>Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2015 12:57 PM
>To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
>Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - President Jonathan Issues
>Official Statement On 2015 Presidential Elections
>
>
>
>Dear all,
>
>I would like to join others in expressing my appreciation to the
>President for his brilliant and soothing concession speech after the
>result of March 28, 2015 presidential election. His victory speech to the
>country in 2011 was also a tour de force.
>
>We count on Mr. President to work collaboratively with all Nigerians and
>the President-elect to move our country forward before and after he
>leaves office.
>You can rest assured that political scientists (including this one) and
>political historians are taking special notes on the political
>developments in the republic.
>
>Many thanks are extended to compatriots for exercising their franchise so
>impressively. I extend my Kudos to you for deepening democracy in the
>process.
>
>It is my hope that the best our country has to offer Africa and the world
>is yet to come.
>
>Congrats Nigeria!
>
>Ike Udogu
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Victor Okafor <vokafor@emich.edu>
>Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2015 11:35 am
>Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - President Jonathan Issues
>Official Statement On 2015 Presidential Elections
>To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
>
>> What a great irony!
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>>
>> From: "Bode" <ominira@gmail.com>
>> To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
>> Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2015 10:44:39 AM
>> Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - President Jonathan Issues
>> Official Statement On 2015 Presidential Elections
>>
>>
>> It is a great irony that Buhari himself has never conceded any
>> election in which he lost. He always made inflammatory and belligerent
>> statements that always led to loss of lives.
>>
>>
>>
>> On 4/1/15, 10:34 AM, "John Mbaku" < jmbaku@weber.edu > wrote:
>>
>>
>> Well done Mr. President. Posterity will remember you well.
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Apr 1, 2015 at 7:07 AM, kenneth harrow < harrow@msu.edu >
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> i wish all african leaders would follow this admirable example and
>> statement by goodluck jonathan. can we not help but think of mugabe,
>> followed by many others. not all cases are egregious or turn to
>> violence, but many involve intimidation. i am thinking of museveni,
>> kagame, nkurunziza, kabila, obiang nguema, bongo, deby, and others,
>> who believe in their indispensability, and who are willing to see
>> blood shed or lives destroyed to maintain themselves and their
>> followers in power.
>> i am old enough to remember nixon, too, wanted to change the rule
>> about 2 term limits, and initiated legislative moves, until watergate
>> undid him look at the monstrous results of mubarak staying in power,
>> with the american supplied gun, or of khadafi, ben ali, etc.
>> power pass power, said saro-wiwa, power without the consent of the
>> people, power of the gun and the whip and the torturer.
>>
>> we can say goodluck back to jonathan, and think of diouf as another
>> good example of a president who enabled elections and bowed to the
>> results. i will miss jonathan's fedoras and broad smile, but remember
>> this election as a positive move for the continent. it sets a positive
>> stage for buhari, and i hope he will move forward ken
>>
>> On 4/1/15 6:45 AM, Samuel Zalanga wrote:
>>
>> <blockquote>
>>
>> As I have always affirmed, nobody¹s ambition is worth the blood of any
>> Nigerian. The unity, stability and progress of our dear country is
>> more important than anything else.--goodluck jonathan
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> kenneth w. harrow
>> faculty excellence advocate
>> professor of english
>> michigan state university
>> department of english
>> 619 red cedar road
>> room C-614 wells hall
>> east lansing, mi 48824
>> ph. 517 803 8839
>> harrow@msu.edu
>>
>>
>>
>> --
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>> </blockquote>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>>
>> JOHN MUKUM MBAKU, ESQ.
>> J.D. (Law), Ph.D. (Economics)
>> Graduate Certificate in Environmental and Natural Resources Law
>> Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Attorney &
>> Counselor at Law (Licensed in Utah) Brady Presidential Distinguished
>> Professor of Economics & Willard L. Eccles Professor of Economics and
>> John S. Hinckley Fellow Department of Economics Weber State University
>> 1337 Edvalson Street, Dept. 3807
>> Ogden, UT 84408-3807, USA
>> (801) 626-7442 Phone
>> (801) 626-7423 Fax
>> --
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>
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