the North could eventually wipe out the South.' Hamelberg
A thoughtful piece, but maybe you have to worry about the west.
This is not the classic north-south scenario. Have a look at the Ivorian
electoral map.
More recently, Dr. Gbagbo and numerous close aides lost
a great deal of their assets abroad, and his ambassadors have been kicked out of
numerous countries. Two major ports have now been completely sealed, affecting
his major export commodity, cocoa.
The issue here is whether the sanctions would bring down the
regime in time to save more lives. Yes there are mass graves- contrary to your
suggestion sometime ago that it was all made up- a veritable insult
to the relatives of the tortured and maimed.
The minority apartheid South African regime mutilated and tortured
tens of thousands of people- even though it was outnumbered 5 :1 .....
so this is not primarily a numbers game.The Gbago regime utilizes
Duvalier- styled 'tonton macoute' units consisting of masked
assassins, sneaking around and dragging people from their beds
in the middle of the night.
This is not child's play.
Mediation is always preferred....assuming you have someone to mediate with
in good faith.
Sanctions can be powerful but could take a while.
Gloria Emeagwali
www.esnips.com/web/gloriaemeagwali<http://www.esnips.com/web/gloriaemeagwali>
www.africahistory.net<http://www.africahistory.net>
GE
www.africahistory.net
www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali.com
________________________________________
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Cornelius Hamelberg [corneliushamelberg@gmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, January 29, 2011 3:04 PM
To: USA Africa Dialogue Series
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: If ECOWAS Does Not Fulfill Its Mandate Of Legitimate Force Very Soon, Then War Is Inevitable
War. Africa: Naturally, a man is worried. In political Africa, the
majority is not necessarily always morally right – even if we were to
agree on a definition of what is "morally right". I know that in
Judaism we are directed to follow the majority of our scholars.
The immediate background atmosphere is about what's just happened in
Tunisia and - should the US say they are going to take the Egyptian
army off their payroll, what implications that would have on peace in
the Middle East:
http://www.israpundit.com/archives/33128
Latest news about the Ivory Coast:
http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&=&q=+The+Ivory+Coast
This is a long held view that most of the democracy & election
problems could be solved by re-writing the Constitutions of most
African states. One of Sierra Leone's best legal practitioners Berthan
Macaulay (later relocated to Jamaica) got £50,000 to draw up Senegal's
Constitution. (When I know something, that thing is always true)
http://www.google.se/search?q=Berthan+Macaulay
Perhaps not such a difficult job for Mr. Macaulay, since Senegal is
almost mono-ethnic - mostly Wolof and Muslim and society is more or
less structured on the rungs of the Sufi Brotherhoods which exert
tremendous political, economic and social influence in Senegal. You
can't be president if the Sufis are against you – or call in Mandinka
troops from Mali to help you if you're not.
Unfortunately it's not so with many African countries where many
nations are welded together into one nation – and come election it's
winner takes all – whereas, Africa – African/ international Think
Tanks could be creative enough to take a realistic look at the
demographics of the post-colonial entities and come up with
Constitutions through which power could be distributed regionally –
this could pre-empt things falling apart due to that unending vicious
cycle of violence erupting , due to ethnic and religious divisions.
Everybody knows this, yet we don't implement this theoretical
knowledge that would solve the kinds of problems that we have always
had in Nigeria, and are now seeing in the Ivory Coast.
It would seem that the idea - and justification of what some call "
legitimate force" has already been established and has been put into
practice in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The legal definition, justification and application of this
"legitimate force" is still being questioned. The post-mortem about
the decision to go to war in Iraq has not been shelved or laid to
rest. I watched the full four hours of Tony Blair's last testimony "
The Iraq Inquiry" on TV, haven't read the transcript yet and even
remember ( on TV) when he breezed into the British Houses of
Parliament and told the assembled MPs , all their mouths hanging open,
all agape, and even I almost jumped out of my armchair in Stockholm -
it was like a current through an electric chair when heard Tony
Blair the Alarmist say, something like "You guys sitting here in peace
and quiet, do you know that Saddam cam deploy and wipe us out within
45 minutes?"
http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&=&q=Lord+Goldsmith++-+war+act
The vote was taken a few minutes later - to do something about the
threat – to go to war – all those who say "Aye", "Aye" and shortly
thereafter Lord Goldsmith appended his signature to the war Act,
giving Great Britain the legal right to kick Saddam's ass.
Naked self-interest. As simple as that. Of course Colin Powell had
done the groundwork. We all saw him at the UN, with his walking stick
pointing out Saddam's mobile launchers for all to see on the UN
Whiteboard….
http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&=&q=The+Iraq+Inquiry
"The use of this potent "Legitimate Force" could be an unfortunate
precedent if applied in all circumstances in which - in the name of
"Winner takes all" democracy, such military solutions should be
applied and in this case, to for example "solve" the impasse in post –
election Ivory Coast where the structural problem to democracy is not
being addressed and will not be solved by outside military forces
taking one side against another side in a civil war in which the
country is evenly divided – and that this action should be advocated
"in the name of democracy" even if at the end of the day , when the
dust of battle dies down, one side of the conflict ( the one which
could be weaker, militarily speaking) could be decimated to the extent
that " government of the people, for the people, by the people" could
be guaranteed for some foreseeable eternity when either the North or
South or whoever it is that's standing in the way of the winner's
slender majority is genocided, for all eternity… and then indeed,
winner takes all for another mandate period. Like cowboys versus the
Indians.
Everybody is giving their credentials? As a common sense layman – and
true pan-Africanist (since the times of the late Emperor of Ethiopia –
after Dr. Eric Williams addressed us in secondary school when I was
in the second form, and after coming in contact with the ideas of
Edward Wilmot Blyden and the great Brother man Marcus Garvey and Mr.
I. T. A Wallace Johnson and a few of my great Yoruba and Creole
relatives during my secondary school days - and of course Chief
Obafemi Awolowo, Zik of Africa, the Osagefo Dr. Kwame Nkrumah – and
we could have gone to the States, but that's why my wife and I chose
the Institute of African studies in Ghana – Nkrumah had made it one of
the best centres of research in African studies – be it politics or
history or African Literature – in which in my opinion it was second
to Ife and Ibadan – and may I add that education and acculturation
in Ghana was also environmental - everybody was there, and it was not
just a question of post-graduate seminars but actually meeting and
mingling and discussing and arguing - ideas with some of the
eminents in the field whether they were from Harvard or UCLA or
Cambridge - and may I add, that there was no totalitarianism in
the seminar rooms or in the library - it's an atmosphere that's
quite foreign to my mentality - and I am not about to experience it
here - from any "authority" who says to me " I am right, you are
dead, I'm a doctor, do you know more than me? "
During our time in Ghana, the US department of strategic studies also
hosted some kind of conference there – and that's the difference
between much of the academic research that's pursued by lone,
ambitious individuals who may be inclined to specialise in
Shakespeare's bawdy for some academic title/ degree/ decoration in
literature whilst some of those in e. g. the UK or the US are funded
by their governments to make specific studies in the anthropologies,
history, sociology, communication, Economics, Trade Unions , the
Military etc even the study of the Roman Empire, for strategic
reasons.
Now the solution to the problem is the Ivory Coast is not achieved by
a war of extermination (that's what it is) of those who support
Gbagbo.
C'mon Africa, you can do better than that!
And the precedent set now ( military intervention / no military
intervention) could be dangerous one, whereby if misused, the strong
will always rule the weak of the North, the South, the East or the
West of Africa and Africa's various interest groups. Well, Africom is
already there.
http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=1G1GGLQ_ENUK257&=&q=Africom
I wonder what the Chinese will come up with. In time perhaps their
own military bases in Africa, Chinacom. Who's side will they be on?
After writing the above I felt some major dissatisfaction with my
lack of details so I decided to call Besserwisser Abdul Karim Bangura
in Washington; he was affable enough and we had a pleasant 20 minutes
conversation during which he chuckled to himself a couple of times. He
says that eighteen (18) elections will be taking place in Africa this
year and that Africa will be a sorry scene if those incumbent
presidents and prime ministers refuse to leave the scene after their
defeat at the polls.
He strikes me as being very knowledgeable about the Ivory Coast,
having visited the country over ten times and having been engaged in
some kind of developmental efforts there, from time to time, but the
question of how to avoid bloodshed remains unsolved - his only ray of
hope being that Gbagbo's men are militarily weak and just as when in
May 1997 the former Commander-in-Chief of the Sierra Leone military
forces, the Alhaji President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah of Sierra Leone heard
the first gunshots of the insurgent rascal Johnny Paul Koroma's men
outside the State House, he jumped into the first helicopter that
could fly him to safety in Guinea Conakry , so too Abdul Karim
repeated his prophetic mantra on the phone about what would happen
should Gbagbo's men hear the first shots of the invading
armies :"When the first contingent of invasion troops land, most of
them will be running to hide under their mothers' beds"
He did not make any prophetic statement about the probable personal
fate of Laurent Gbagbo – nor did we discuss the resistance of Ghana,
Liberia, Uganda, South Africa and a few others, to the idea of
military intervention, which is more easily said than done.
The conversation concluded with the headline that I'm responding to:"
If ECOWAS Does Not Fulfill Its Mandate Of Legitimate Force Very Soon,
Then War Is Inevitable"
Should Abdul Karim give the same explanations that he gave me, the
reasons for what he thinks could be the humanitarian catastrophes of
minor bloodshed + refugees would be more understandable and even
appear to be a more humanitarian alternative to the Ivory Coast
descending into the abyss of internal or eternal civil war in which
the North could eventually wipe out the South….
I still believe in the possibility of mediation….
On Jan 29, 4:44 am, "Abdul Bangura" <th...@earthlink.net> wrote:
> Ivory Coast Rivals Preparing for War, Kenyan Prime Minister Odinga Says
> By William Davison an Mike Cohen - Jan 28, 2011 11:52 AM ET Fri Jan 28 16:52:13 GMT 2011
>
> Ivory Coast�s two rival administrations are preparing for war and concerted mediation is needed to avert conflict and a major regional crisis, Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga said.
> Ivory Coast has been gripped by a political crisis since the Election Commission named Alassane Ouattara, 69, the winner of the Nov. 28 presidential election, and incumbent Laurent Gbagbo, 65, refused to concede defeat, alleging voter fraud.
> �Ivory Coast stands on a knife�s edge,� Odinga, who was appointed by the African Union to mediate in the crisis, told reporters today in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, where he is attending a regional summit. �With preparations for armed conflict under way on both sides, a small spark could ignite a major conflagration.�
> The election was supposed to reunite the world�s largest cocoa producer following a 2002 civil war, which divided the country into a rebel-held north and a government-controlled south.
> �Ivory Coast symbolizes the great tragedy that seems to have befallen Africa, whereby some incumbents refuse to give up power if they lose,� Odinga said. �In Ivory Coast�s case, never has there been such internal, regional and international unanimity among independent institutions about the outcome of a disputed election in Africa.�
> Violent Clashes
> At least 271 people have been killed in violent clashes that followed the vote, according to the United Nations, which has a peacekeeping mission in the country.
> Several African heads of state are holding talks in Addis Ababa on Ivory Coast today and more meetings are scheduled tomorrow. The 53-nation bloc suspended Ivory Coast�s membership on Dec. 9, calling on Gbagbo to transfer power to Ouattara �without delay.�
> The Economic Community of West African States, or Ecowas, said on Dec. 24 it may use force to oust Gbagbo if he refused to leave office. The group�s 15 members include Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal and Ivory Coast.
> �The declared African Union and ECOWAS positions are not about the use of force,� Odinga said. �Both organizations are committed to a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Africa must stand ready to deploy other measures if a settlement cannot be agreed.�
> Odinga�s warning of armed conflict echoed comments made yesterday by Ghana�s Foreign Minister Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni said.
> �Bloodbath�
> �We don�t want to see a bloodbath in the Ivory Coast,� Mumuni said in an interview in Addis Ababa. �We certainly don�t want to see the Ivorian people streaming out of their own country. We will be swamped. We have 1 million Ghanaians inside Ivory Coast. We are concerned for their safety. We are concerned that they will be compelled to come home.�
> Angola�s President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said on Jan. 14 that the UN misled the international community when it validated Ouattara�s victory and called for fresh elections.
> �We respect what the regional bodies of Africa decide� and support the African Union�s decision to suspend Ivory Coast�s membership, Manuel Domingos Augusto, Angola�s secretary of state for external relations, said today in an interview in Addis Ababa.
> �We see people saying there is a dispute but there is one winner,� he said. �There is recognition that the situation is not that simple. Who can guarantee that if Mr. Gbagbo steps down, there will be peace? We need dialogue.�
> Augusto denied news reports that Angola recently supplied Gbagbo�s administration with weapons.
> �It�s not true at all,� he said. �We know nothing about it.�
> The European Union has banned most trade with the Ivory Coast in a bid to cut off Gbagbo�s access to funds.
> To contact the reporters on this story: Mike Cohen in Addis Ababa at mcohe...@bloomberg.net; William Davison in Addis Ababa via Johannesburg at pmrichard...@bloomberg.net.
> To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at bar...@bloomberg.net.
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin.
For current archives, visit http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
For previous archives, visit http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue-
unsubscribe@googlegroups.com
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin.
For current archives, visit http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
For previous archives, visit http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue-
unsubscribe@googlegroups.com
No comments:
Post a Comment