Friday, January 28, 2011

USA Africa Dialogue Series - If ECOWAS Does Not Fulfill Its Mandate Of Legitimate Force Very Soon, Then War Is Inevitable

Ivory Coast Rivals Preparing for War, Kenyan Prime Minister Odinga Says

 
Ivory Coast's two rival administrations are preparing for war and concerted mediation is needed to avert conflict and a major regional crisis, Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga said.

Ivory Coast has been gripped by a political crisis since the Election Commission named Alassane Ouattara, 69, the winner of the Nov. 28 presidential election, and incumbent Laurent Gbagbo, 65, refused to concede defeat, alleging voter fraud.

"Ivory Coast stands on a knife's edge," Odinga, who was appointed by the African Union to mediate in the crisis, told reporters today in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, where he is attending a regional summit. "With preparations for armed conflict under way on both sides, a small spark could ignite a major conflagration."

The election was supposed to reunite the world's largest cocoa producer following a 2002 civil war, which divided the country into a rebel-held north and a government-controlled south.

"Ivory Coast symbolizes the great tragedy that seems to have befallen Africa, whereby some incumbents refuse to give up power if they lose," Odinga said. "In Ivory Coast's case, never has there been such internal, regional and international unanimity among independent institutions about the outcome of a disputed election in Africa."

Violent Clashes

At least 271 people have been killed in violent clashes that followed the vote, according to the United Nations, which has a peacekeeping mission in the country.

Several African heads of state are holding talks in Addis Ababa on Ivory Coast today and more meetings are scheduled tomorrow. The 53-nation bloc suspended Ivory Coast's membership on Dec. 9, calling on Gbagbo to transfer power to Ouattara "without delay."

The Economic Community of West African States, or Ecowas, said on Dec. 24 it may use force to oust Gbagbo if he refused to leave office. The group's 15 members include Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal and Ivory Coast.

"The declared African Union and ECOWAS positions are not about the use of force," Odinga said. "Both organizations are committed to a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Africa must stand ready to deploy other measures if a settlement cannot be agreed."

Odinga's warning of armed conflict echoed comments made yesterday by Ghana's Foreign Minister Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni said.

'Bloodbath'

"We don't want to see a bloodbath in the Ivory Coast," Mumuni said in an interview in Addis Ababa. "We certainly don't want to see the Ivorian people streaming out of their own country. We will be swamped. We have 1 million Ghanaians inside Ivory Coast. We are concerned for their safety. We are concerned that they will be compelled to come home."

Angola's President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said on Jan. 14 that the UN misled the international community when it validated Ouattara's victory and called for fresh elections.

"We respect what the regional bodies of Africa decide" and support the African Union's decision to suspend Ivory Coast's membership, Manuel Domingos Augusto, Angola's secretary of state for external relations, said today in an interview in Addis Ababa.

"We see people saying there is a dispute but there is one winner," he said. "There is recognition that the situation is not that simple. Who can guarantee that if Mr. Gbagbo steps down, there will be peace? We need dialogue."

Augusto denied news reports that Angola recently supplied Gbagbo's administration with weapons.

"It's not true at all," he said. "We know nothing about it."

The European Union has banned most trade with the Ivory Coast in a bid to cut off Gbagbo's access to funds.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mike Cohen in Addis Ababa at mcohen21@bloomberg.net; William Davison in Addis Ababa via Johannesburg at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net.

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