David Smith in Cape Town
Friday May 6 2011
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2011/may/05/one-three-africans-middle-class
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2011/may/05/one-three-africans-middle-class
One in three Africans is middle class, a rising group of consumers to
rival those of China and India, researchers have found.
Record numbers of people in Africa own houses and cars, use mobile
phones and the internet and send their children to private schools
and foreign universities, according to the African Development Bank.
Mthuli Ncube, the bank's chief economist, said the findings should
challenge long-held perceptions of Africa as a continent of famine,
poverty and hopelessness.
"Hey you know what, the world please wake up, this is a phenomenon in
Africa that we've not spent a lot of time thinking about," Ncube
said. "There is a middle class that is driven by specific factors
such as education and we should change our view and work with this
group to create a new Africa and make sure Africa realises its full
potential."
Ncube said the study used an absolute definition of middle class,
meaning people who spend between $2 and $20 a day, which he believed
was appropriate given the cost of living for Africa's nearly 1
billion people.
The study found that, by last year, Africa's middle class had risen
to about 34% of the continent's population, or about 313m people ? up
from around 111m (26%) in 1980 and 196m (27%) in 2000.
The growth rate of the middle class over the past 30 years was about
3.1%, slightly faster than that of the total population. Tunisia,
Morocco and Egypt had proportionately the biggest middle classes in
Africa, while Liberia, Burundi and Rwanda had the smallest.
The Africa middle classes are more likely to have salaried jobs or
own small businesses. They tend not to rely entirely on public health
services, seeking more expensive medical care. The middle classes
tend to have fewer children and spend more on their nutrition and
schooling.
Sales of fridges, TVs and mobile phones have surged in virtually
every African country in recent years, the report said. Possession of
cars and motorcycles in Ghana, for example, has gone up by 81% in the
past five years.
"They own houses and they account for the bulk of housing ownership,"
Ncube said. "They own cars ? people are driving cars in Lagos, in
Kampala, in Harare, in Ouagadougou ? it's the same middle class. You
can even see it in the consumption of petrol. The bulk of them are
consuming ICT services and mobile telephony, although the poor are
also consumers of mobile telephone services.. They would also send
their children to school, preferably private schools, but also
schools outside the continent. The same class is sending their
children to universities outside their home country, in South Africa,
in Australia, in Canada, naturally Europe ? France is a bigger
absorber from the French-speaking countries ? and the US."
The middle class was responsible for at least half of Africa's GDP of
$1.6tn, he added. The trend reflected years of sustained economic
growth, with sub-Saharan Africa projected at 5.5% this year.
"This has implications," Ncube said. "How should the rest of the
world engage with Africa, given this middle class? I think it means
that those who want to invest should take the opportunity and look
for partners within Africa to invest jointly with."
The focus of aid and development assistance would also have to change
in the next 10 to 15 years, he argued. "It will have to concentrate
less on the bottom of the pyramid and move to the middle, which means
it has to be supportive of private sector initiatives, which then are
the way middle class people conduct their lives."
Africa has a relatively young population and has seen millions
migrate from rural areas to cities, where shopping malls with
designer labels and smart coffee shops are springing up across the
continent. Ncube acknowledged that a widening, internet-literate
middle class could pose a threat to autocratic leaders, as seen in
Egypt and Tunisia.
"The middle class is a source of democracy in Africa in a sense that
they are custodians of democracy. They are the people who are
educated, they know how to vote, they know what they want, they've
got interests to protect. Supporting this class in a way also helps
institution building in Africa.
But the research found that poverty remains deeply entrenched, with
61% of Africa's population living on less than $2 a day. An estimated
21% earn only enough to spend $2 to $4 a day, leaving about 180
million people vulnerable to economic shocks that could knock them
out of the new middle class.
At the top of the pyramid, an elite of about 100,000 Africans had a
collective net worth of 60% of the continent's gross domestic product
in 2008, the report said.
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