Zimbabwe's future
A new road map for Zimbabwe?
Robert Mugabe's neighbouring leaders may at last be turning against
him
Jun 23rd 2011 | HARARE | from the print edition
NOT since Morgan Tsvangirai entered a power-sharing government with
President Robert Mugabe two-and-a-half years ago has the mood within
his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), formerly the main opposition
party, been so upbeat. The Southern African Development Community
(SADC), which guarantees the power-sharing pact, may at last be
willing to tighten the screws on Zimbabwe's ageing despot. At a summit
in Johannesburg earlier this month, the often feckless and invariably
deferential 15-member regional club issued a report that condemned the
dogged refusal of Zanu-PF, Mr Mugabe's party, to honour the pact. It
also agreed to set out a "road map" for violence-free and fair
elections to be held, probably some time next year.
Mr Mugabe has been left isolated, humiliated and fuming. He lobbied
hard to get the report, drawn up by Jacob Zuma, South Africa's
president and SADC's "facilitator" on Zimbabwe, rejected by his
regional colleagues. Though the report did not mention him or his
party by name, it was obvious who was being singled out. Lamenting the
"continuous backtracking and lack of implementation" of the power-
sharing pact, Mr Zuma said the situation in the country could no
longer be tolerated. The anti-government uprisings in north Africa had
shown the need to unblock the Zimbabwean impasse speedily and "in a
way that will not just satisfy the SADC region but also that would be
acceptable to the entire world."
Rejecting Mr Mugabe's call for fresh elections this year, Mr Zuma said
a poll in the prevailing atmosphere of "violence, intimidation and
fear" would lead the country back to the dreadful violence during the
last elections three years ago or even to "a far worse situation".
That is why clear conditions for a new poll, including outside
observers and the unfettered access of all parties to print and
broadcast media, were needed.
Negotiators from SADC and Zimbabwe's three main parties adopted a
first draft on June 2nd. Despite furious opposition from Zanu-PF's
leaders, who claimed that it was all a Western-backed plot to rig the
elections and impose "regime change", the negotiators have been told
to draw up a final road map, along with timetables, ready for adoption
at SADC's next summit, in August.
It is far from certain that Mr Mugabe will ever accept such a
document, let alone stick to its conditions. "We will not brook any
dictation from any source," he stormed when Mr Zuma's report (which
has only just become public) was initially endorsed in March by a SADC
"troika" that deals with politics and security. "We are a sovereign
country. Even our neighbours cannot dictate to us." The facilitator's
job, he said, was simply to facilitate dialogue. "He cannot prescribe
anything. We prescribe what we do in accordance with our own laws." He
now claims that the report was rejected at this month's full summit,
pointing out that the final communiqué merely said it had been "noted"
rather than "endorsed". SADC officials say this means the same thing
and that it has been annexed to the summit's official report.
The MDC has lost quite a lot of support because of its patchy
performance in the unity government. All the same, if free and fair
elections were held, the odds would favour an MDC victory. But would
Mr Mugabe ever accept losing power? The heads of the security forces,
which fall under his direct control, have sworn never to accept Mr
Tsvangirai as president. Some watchers fear that Zimbabwe could become
like Côte d'Ivoire, where an incumbent president clung to power for
many months after his election defeat, plunging his country into civil
conflict. Others hope that Mr Mugabe, now 87 and in failing health,
might, along with his generals, be persuaded to retire peacefully if
all were guaranteed immunity from prosecution, the removal of targeted
sanctions by the West, and the retention of their riches.
Many Zimbabweans, grown sceptical over the years, shake their heads in
disbelief. In power since independence 31 years ago, Mr Mugabe seems
to regard himself as a kind of monarch who must reign until his death.
Not so long ago, he could have counted on the support of SADC leaders,
many of them fellow veterans of anti-colonial struggles. But they are
being replaced by a less respectful younger generation with more
awareness of the link between good governance and their countries'
prosperity. SADC's leaders, especially its younger ones, are
increasingly loth to see their region dragged down by an ageing
autocrat. South Africa, already home to more than 1m Zimbabwean
refugees, does not want to suffer yet another influx. Mr Zuma may at
last really mean to get tough with his recalcitrant neighbour to the
north.
from the print edition | Middle East & Africa
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