CVL 2012 Annual Lecture by Prof. Peter M. Lewis, Director, African Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Delivered on February 7, 2012.
I would like to first extend my deep appreciation to Professor Pat Utomi for honoring me with the invitation to deliver this year's lecture for the Centre for Values in Leadership. I have counted Pat Utomi as a friend for more years than we would like to acknowledge and I have always marveled at his intelligence, energy, insight, dedication and integrity. I continue to learn from his ideas and from his example. He personifies a special resource for Nigeria: an "age grade" of citizens with the vision, education, experience, and global perspective to move the country toward better governance, social equity, and economic dynamism. The Centre for Values in Leadership is a welcome project that offers us an occasion each year to reflect on the nature of leadership, the challenges of leadership in Nigeria, and the possibilities of leadership in Africa's most populous state.
Nigeria's Contradictory Paths
This past year has left many of us with a great sense of contradiction. Just twelve months ago, Nigerians and international friends looked expectantly toward elections that would be more transparent, competitive and fair. The administration promised electoral reform that was long overdue, backed by fresh leadership in the Independent National Electoral Commission, and a national mobilization to ensure acceptable polls. During the April election period, many people took encouragement from the orderly and open conduct of the voting. Domestic observers, the Nigerian media, and international observers commended the process, along with many average Nigerians, and a clear winner emerged.
Yet as we know, the elections were shadowed by some irregularities and considerable violence. Many presidential voters believed that their candidate had been unfairly defeated, and a number of state and local elections were marred by conflict. The new administration faced great challenges of managing regional tensions, securing public trust, and meeting long-standing aspirations for shared economic development.
Less than a year later, the nation is being severely tested by dilemmas of security and economic direction. The rapid escalation of the insurgency in Northern Nigeria, and the wave of social protest that answered the government's initiative to remove the fuel subsidy, have incited widespread feelings of uncertainty and popular frustration. These are very different challenges, arising from distinctive agendas and social foundations. Boko Haram is a narrow, violent sectarian group. By contrast, the civic response to the fuel subsidy issue has been inclusive, peaceful and broadly popular. Still, the unsettling events of this season leave many Nigerians asking whether their government can keep them safe, whether politicians have the capacity to manage the economy, whether elites have the empathy or interest to reduce poverty and inequality, whether Nigeria's diverse people will retain their general civility or succumb to violence.
The concerns of the moment reflect greater questions about where Nigeria is heading. Not long ago I had the opportunity to speak at a lecture series convened by the Abuja Investments Company. I sketched two visions of Nigeria that we often find in the media and in popular discussion. One vision is the "emerging Nigeria" that aims to be among the world's largest 20 economies in the next decade. It is the Nigeria of 70 million cell phones, 40 million internet users, a strengthened banking system, initiatives in electrical power, a vibrant media and entertainment industry, reform governors in Lagos and elsewhere, a rising middle class, global presence and a seven percent economic growth rate. It is also a Nigeria of elections and competitive parties, rambunctious politics, a respected judiciary, and a federal arrangement that maintains a rough stability in a plural society.
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