Thursday, August 2, 2012

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog in the New York Times is considered the most authoritative forecasting model for elections in the US today. His forecast and modeling were deadly accurate in the last two election cycles. His forecast uses BOTH polling and objective economic data and even factors in other variables like historical patterns and unpredictable events. Below is his assessment of how the race stands and his forecasting, as of yesterday, of how the race will conclude in November.

August 2, 2012, 9:44 AM35 Comments

Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage

By NATE SILVER

Barack Obama's standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.

Three of the polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University in conjunction with The New York Times and CBS News. The polls gave Mr. Obama leads of 6 points in each of Ohio and Florida, and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.

In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.

Nevertheless, Ohio and Pennsylvania polls are part of a consensus of polls showing Mr. Obama ahead in these states by varying margins. Mr. Obama has led 11 of the 13 polls in Ohio since May 1, and he has led all 11 polls conducted in Pennsylvania during this period.

The Florida polls have been more equivocal: Mr. Obama has held 10 leads, versus six for Mitt Romney. Still, Florida is typically a somewhat Republican-leaning state. In an election that was truly even-money, you'd expect Mr. Romney to be leading in more of the Florida polls rather than the other way around. Read more…

August 1, 2012, 10:47 AM88 Comments

July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth

By NATE SILVER

President Obama's chances of winning the Electoral College improved slightly on Tuesday, to 69.0 percent from 66.9 percent one day earlier, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model. The change was because of new government data showing faster growth in personal income, one of the seven economic data series that our forecast model uses.

The sluggish growth in personal income — it was previously reported as having increased essentially no faster than the growth rate in the population for much of Mr. Obama's term — had been one of the better reasons to conclude that his re-election bid was in a great deal of trouble. Measures of personal income are popular in the forecast models of elections produced by political scientists and economists — in part because they potentially do a good job of measuring the economy as it is experienced by voters, and in part because the correlation between personal income and election outcomes has been reasonably high in the past.

There are also reasons to be wary of the personal income data. It is extremely noisy, for instance — with large fluctuations from month to month and from quarter to quarter — and it frequently undergoes significant revisions.

On Tuesday, however, those revisions worked to Mr. Obama's benefit. Data from recent previous months was revised upward to show more income growth. And the latest print of the data, describing the income growth in June, was also fairly strong.
Read more…


On Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 5:54 AM, Shola Adenekan <sholaadenekan@gmail.com> wrote:
Mwalimu Bangura,

By the way, here is the latest Real Clear Politics' electoral map: Obama is at 247 and Romney at 191. The toss-up states at the moment are :

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)


If Obama wins only Florida out of these 8 toss-up states, it's over for your man Romney!

I look forward to my cow leg come November 7, 2012!

Have a great day!

Olorunshola


On Wed, Aug 1, 2012 at 11:05 PM, <shina73_1999@yahoo.com> wrote:
Prof.,
I will remind and hold you to that promise.
November is nearby.

Adeshina Afolayan
Sent from my BlackBerry wireless device from MTN
From: "Abdul Bangura" <theai@earthlink.net>
Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2012 17:14:20 -0400
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

My Wonderful and Calm Mwalimu Jaye Gaskia, just a few weeks ago, the Electoral College difference was more then 50, yes? Today, it is about 30, yes?
 
Now, to all of you Obama supporters/Romney Haters, I will send you a whole cow, with all four legs for Nija style pepper soup, should Romney not win this presidential election. Let me know to whom I should send the cow. Mark my words: Romney is going to be our next POTUS come November 2012. So it is written and so it shall be done.
 
----- Original Message -----
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Sent: 8/1/2012 2:56:17 PM
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Dear Abdul,
How many times can this once huge electoral colldge lead possibly have evaporated? How long is it taking to evaporate?
Regards,
Jaye

From: Abdul Karim Bangura <theai@earthlink.net>
To: "USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com" <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>
Cc: leonenet <leonenet@lists.umbc.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 5:30 PM
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Obama's once huge Electoral College lead is evaporating very fast, Pennsylvania is not a swing state, Romney has a huge lead with white males whites comprise about 74% of the population), and NYT/CBS polls include those who will not vote.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Most voters under 40 prefer Obama while most over 40 support Romney. The gender gap is alive and well. Obama does about 14 points better among women than men. Among white voters, Romney leads 56% to 35%.  Obama has an overwhelming lead among black voters and leads by a two-to-one margin among other minority voters. All of these dynamics are similar to Election 2008.
In Missouri, Romney leads by six. The state is rated Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The projections  show that Obama is likely to win states with 201 Electoral College Votes while Romney is likely to win in states with 170. Thirteen states with 167 Electoral College Votes are either Toss-Ups or Leaners.

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--
There is enough in the world for everyone's need but not for everyone's greed.


---Mohandas Gandhi

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