Thursday, August 2, 2012

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Mwalimu Adenekan, I don't know who this Jeffrey Anderson is, but he must be The Father of All BOZOS. Rasmussen has no such nonsense. Rasmussen's latest Electoral College Numbers that came out yesterday has a 31 vote difference.The following is today's Rasmussen poll---the most reliable daily poll, not drawn-out, that is based on actual voters, not including those who do not vote. Romney leads Obama by 2% and Obama is also at a very high -21% nationally. With the bad economic news that came out again today, Obama is on a downward spiral. He needs an economic miracle to save his job.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

in Politics

Thursday, August 02, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Fifty-one percent (51%) consider Romney's views to be in the mainstream while 37% say they're extreme. Voters are more evenly divided on the president. Forty-four percent (44%) say Obama's views are mainstream while 47% consider them extreme. Forty-six percent (46%) say Election 2012 offers a choice between the lesser of two evils. 

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) believe the country is generally heading in the right direction.  Sixty-two percent (62%) believe the US is still in a recession.  Overall, for the full month of July, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level of the year.

Thirty-three percent (33%) give the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy.  Forty-nine percent (49%) say he's done a poor job in this area. Not surprisingly, 82% of Republicans give the president poor marks on the economy. So do 16% of Democrats.

On national security matters, the president gets positive reviews from 45% and negatives from 35%.

Missouri's Democratic U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill still trails in her bid for re-election. However, she has closed the gap against three Republican hopefuls. The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power  ratings suggest that the Republicans are likely to end up with 48 Senate seats while the Democrats are likely to have 47. Five races are pure Toss-Ups.

The number of people who consider themselves Republicans slipped in July. The GOP partisan identification advantage is now the smallest it's been in 2012.

(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)

A president's Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president's Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats approve and 89% of Republicans disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 44% approve and 54% disapprove.

In his weekly newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen concludes that for Obama to win, "he will need to improve his own job approval rating between now and Election Day. For that to happen, perceptions of the economy will have to reverse their current downward trend." If you'd like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.

Confidence in the labor market has fallen to the lowest level of 2012. Twenty percent (20%) of workers report their employers are hiring while 22% report layoffs.  These are the weakest hiring expectations in nine months.

Thirty-four percent (34%) believe the Supreme Court is doing a good or an excellent job while 22% say poor. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters believe the Supreme Court is too liberal, while 27% say it is too conservative.  Voters tend to see the balance between individual rights and national security concerns as appropriate.

However, 68% believe there are too many laws in the United States.  Half (50%) say there are too many people in jail for minor, non-violent crimes. On the balance between individual freedom and government power, 66% believe that there is too much government power and too little individual freedom.  Just eight percent (8%) believe the opposite to be true.

In Missouri, Romney leads by six. The state is rated Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The projections  show that Obama is likely to win states with 201 Electoral College Votes while Romney is likely to win in states with 170. Thirteen states with 167 Electoral College Votes are either Toss-Ups or Leaners.

(Approval Index data below)

Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21 (see trends).

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration's policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.

To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.

(More below)

Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service  and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show--What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012.

Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.



-----Original Message-----
From: Shola Adenekan
Sent: Aug 2, 2012 4:38 PM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Dear All,

The brain-trust of American conservatism, Weekly Standard, which is also a sister news organisation of Rupert Murdoch's Fox News just confirmed what many politicos already know - Obama is more likely to win re-election!

 http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rasmussen-obama-284-romney-235_649241.html

And here you have it!

Olorunshola

Rasmussen: Obama 284, Romney 235

3:16 PM, Aug 2, 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
Single Page Print Larger Text Smaller Text Alerts

A new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll, which shows President Obama handily beating Mitt Romney among likely voters in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, has sparked justifiable concern among some Republicans.  In the wake of that poll, it's worth comparing the state-by-state polling from Rasmussen Reports, whose polling is perhaps viewed with less skepticism in conservative circles. Unfortunately, only three months and four days away from the most important election at least since the Civil War, Rasmussen confirms that Obama is in the lead. 

obama and romney

If we look at all Rasmussen polling taken in the past month in the ten key swing states (Fla., Ohio, Va., Wis., Penn., Nev., Mich., Colo., Iowa, and N.H.) and fill in the rest of the states as they would be expected to go, the tally as of today would be as follows:  284 electoral votes for Obama, 235 for Romney.  That, of course, would be enough to give Obama another four years. 

Rasmussen's polling shows Obama leading Romney by 1 point in Virginia, 2 points in Ohio, 3 points in Wisconsin, 4 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Nevada, and 6 points in Michigan.  It shows Romney beating Obama by 1 point in Florida.  Rasmussen hasn't done any polling in the past month in Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire.  (This 284-235 tally assumes a Romney victory in North Carolina, where he led by 3 points in Rasmussen's polling in late June, and Obama victories in New Mexico and Minnesota.) 

Related Stories

More by Jeffrey H. Anderson

If Romney's tenuous 1-point lead in Florida were to swing the other way, the tally would be Obama 313, Romney 206.

So far, Romney has largely failed to emphasize that this election is about a choice of two futures for America.  When the election is characterized in that way, Americans don't like the choice being offered by Obama — and particularly by Obamacare.  But if voters largely base their choice on image or personality — or on whether the party of Bush or the party of Obama is better suited to deal with the economic plight of the middle class — all bets are off. 

On the cusp of the most important exercise of leadership that Romney will have the chance to showcase prior to November — his selection of a running mate — he has the perfect opportunity to emphasize, through his pick, that this election is about a choice of two futures for America:  liberty and prosperity, or coercion and decline.  He needs a running mate who would both symbolize that choice and help him give voice to it.









On Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 7:31 PM, kenneth harrow <harrow@msu.edu> wrote:
plus, nate silver is from our home town, east lansing, michigan; and we know his parents.
he was a smart kid too
ken



On 8/2/12 6:31 PM, Moses Ebe Ochonu wrote:
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog in the New York Times is considered the most authoritative forecasting model for elections in the US today. His forecast and modeling were deadly accurate in the last two election cycles. His forecast uses BOTH polling and objective economic data and even factors in other variables like historical patterns and unpredictable events. Below is his assessment of how the race stands and his forecasting, as of yesterday, of how the race will conclude in November.

FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver's Political Calculus
August 2, 2012, 9:44 AM35 Comments

Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage

By NATE SILVER

Barack Obama's standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.

Three of the polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University in conjunction with The New York Times and CBS News. The polls gave Mr. Obama leads of 6 points in each of Ohio and Florida, and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.

In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.

Nevertheless, Ohio and Pennsylvania polls are part of a consensus of polls showing Mr. Obama ahead in these states by varying margins. Mr. Obama has led 11 of the 13 polls in Ohio since May 1, and he has led all 11 polls conducted in Pennsylvania during this period.

The Florida polls have been more equivocal: Mr. Obama has held 10 leads, versus six for Mitt Romney. Still, Florida is typically a somewhat Republican-leaning state. In an election that was truly even-money, you'd expect Mr. Romney to be leading in more of the Florida polls rather than the other way around. Read more…




August 1, 2012, 10:47 AM88 Comments

July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth

By NATE SILVER

President Obama's chances of winning the Electoral College improved slightly on Tuesday, to 69.0 percent from 66.9 percent one day earlier, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model. The change was because of new government data showing faster growth in personal income, one of the seven economic data series that our forecast model uses.

The sluggish growth in personal income — it was previously reported as having increased essentially no faster than the growth rate in the population for much of Mr. Obama's term — had been one of the better reasons to conclude that his re-election bid was in a great deal of trouble. Measures of personal income are popular in the forecast models of elections produced by political scientists and economists — in part because they potentially do a good job of measuring the economy as it is experienced by voters, and in part because the correlation between personal income and election outcomes has been reasonably high in the past.

There are also reasons to be wary of the personal income data. It is extremely noisy, for instance — with large fluctuations from month to month and from quarter to quarter — and it frequently undergoes significant revisions.

On Tuesday, however, those revisions worked to Mr. Obama's benefit. Data from recent previous months was revised upward to show more income growth. And the latest print of the data, describing the income growth in June, was also fairly strong.
Read more…





On Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 5:54 AM, Shola Adenekan <sholaadenekan@gmail.com> wrote:
Mwalimu Bangura,

By the way, here is the latest Real Clear Politics' electoral map: Obama is at 247 and Romney at 191. The toss-up states at the moment are :

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)


If Obama wins only Florida out of these 8 toss-up states, it's over for your man Romney!

I look forward to my cow leg come November 7, 2012!

Have a great day!

Olorunshola


On Wed, Aug 1, 2012 at 11:05 PM, <shina73_1999@yahoo.com> wrote:
Prof.,
I will remind and hold you to that promise.
November is nearby.

Adeshina Afolayan
Sent from my BlackBerry wireless device from MTN
From: "Abdul Bangura" <theai@earthlink.net>
Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2012 17:14:20 -0400
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

My Wonderful and Calm Mwalimu Jaye Gaskia, just a few weeks ago, the Electoral College difference was more then 50, yes? Today, it is about 30, yes?
 
Now, to all of you Obama supporters/Romney Haters, I will send you a whole cow, with all four legs for Nija style pepper soup, should Romney not win this presidential election. Let me know to whom I should send the cow. Mark my words: Romney is going to be our next POTUS come November 2012. So it is written and so it shall be done.
 
----- Original Message -----
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Sent: 8/1/2012 2:56:17 PM
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Dear Abdul,
How many times can this once huge electoral colldge lead possibly have evaporated? How long is it taking to evaporate?
Regards,
Jaye

From: Abdul Karim Bangura <theai@earthlink.net>
To: "USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com" <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>
Cc: leonenet <leonenet@lists.umbc.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 5:30 PM
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Obama's once huge Electoral College lead is evaporating very fast, Pennsylvania is not a swing state, Romney has a huge lead with white males whites comprise about 74% of the population), and NYT/CBS polls include those who will not vote.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Most voters under 40 prefer Obama while most over 40 support Romney. The gender gap is alive and well. Obama does about 14 points better among women than men. Among white voters, Romney leads 56% to 35%.  Obama has an overwhelming lead among black voters and leads by a two-to-one margin among other minority voters. All of these dynamics are similar to Election 2008.
In Missouri, Romney leads by six. The state is rated Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The projections  show that Obama is likely to win states with 201 Electoral College Votes while Romney is likely to win in states with 170. Thirteen states with 167 Electoral College Votes are either Toss-Ups or Leaners.

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There is enough in the world for everyone's need but not for everyone's greed.


---Mohandas Gandhi
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--   kenneth w. harrow   distinguished professor of english  michigan state university  department of english  east lansing, mi 48824-1036  ph. 517 803 8839  harrow@msu.edu

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