Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Heavily skewed swing state polls
Some polls show a close race and some are increasingly more heavily skewed to create an illusion of a landslide. The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking Poll released today shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 46 percent each. Rasmussen's daily tracking poll of 11 key swing states likewise shows the race tied at 46 percent for each candidate. Rasmussen Reports is by far the most accurate among the well-established polling firms. But a series of swing state polls done at the state level by mainstream media outlets reported yesterday and the day before were so heavily skewed that they are raising questions about the credibility of the media outlets and polling firms involved in them.
The chart above, from UnSkewedPolls.com, which is a source of analysis done by this columnist to shed light on the nature of these skewed polls, lists the recent swing state polls that will be analyzed here and shows their result, the degree of skew in the sample in favor of Democrats, the state polled, and the result from unskewing the data from the poll.
Activists and partisans on the far left bitterly cling to these skewed polls because they are the only evidence they can cite that shows President Obama can be reelected. Some are so strident as to even suggest the specter of violence if they are not allowed to believe that Obama can win. Nearly all partisans on the right remained civil when the Republican nominee lost to Obama in 2008 and those on the left should be prepared to be civil should the voters choose Mitt Romney as the next president.
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac University released yesterday a series of polls of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania showing Obama leading by nine percent, 10 percent and nine percent in the three states respectively. But the samples used for these polls were skewed by eight to nine percent in favor of Democrats. When the data us unskewed for these polls, the result shows them tied or within the margin of error. That is far different than nearly double digit leads for Obama in all of them.
A Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania released yesterday shows a similar level of being skewed. It reported an Obama lead of 52 percent to 43 percent using a sample that was skewed in favor of Democrats by 11 percent. This poll, unskewed, shows the race tied at 47 percent for each candidate in Pennsylvania.
The Washington Post released, two days ago, polls of Florida and Ohio showing Obama leads of 51 percent 47 percent in Florida and 52 percent to 44 percent in Ohio. The Florida poll was skewed Democrats by four percent and the Ohio poll was skewed for Democrats by seven percent. Unskewed, the data from these polls indicated a 50 percent to 46 percent Romney lead in Florida and a 49 percent to 47 percent Romney lead in Ohio.
These polls are being heavily reported in the mainstream media, resulting in the creation of a perception that President Obama has an insurmountable lead in these key swing states and therefore has the race for president all but won already. This perception is driving the analysis and reporting of the state of the presidential race. The perception almost entirely creates the conventional wisdom that is focused too much on whether one campaign or the other is employing successful tactics and strategy rather than informing the voters of what the agenda and policy proposals are for the candidates and how they intend to address the major issues of concern to the voters.
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