Sir,
About your saying that, "That constitution neither spoke to the concerns nor the interests of non-Morsi supporters " I should like to explain that The Muslim Brotherhood are not the only Islamists in the Egyptian parliament and that the second and third biggest parties are also Islamists. Egypt is a predominantly Muslim country with a highly vocal non-Muslim, secularist and Christian minority. I should also like to point out that the el Baradei who the military wanted to make their prime minister is the presidential candidate who polled the least number of votes in the last presidential elections. He was last. It's possible that the military dictatorship would like to reverse the order of things by decree of course and replace the people's choice with a new undemocratic doctrine of "the first shall be the last" by which the one who polls the least number of votes ( el Baradei) should be appointed the new Prime Minister as decided by El Sisi ?
Breaking news: Egyptian Military orders the arrest of Muslim Brotherhood Leaders
Thanks for the red line!
There's a logic of inevitability to the thinking of any military dictatorship, especially the one in Egypt just now : the so called " Interim President" – the puppet that the Egyptian military has imposed on the Egyptian people is not in charge – he has been put there, backed not by ballots but by the threat of bullets. In any contest between the Egyptian Military and the Islamists we should not loose sight of this reality: that it's the military that has the guns with which they have just overthrown a democratically elected government – and now with lawful president Morsi under house arrest, under lock and key, of course from the professional soldiers point of view - especially now that they are in charge of politics, even as the "interim President" calls for the inclusion of Islamists it would be best to arrest the rest of the Muslim Brotherhood leadership in addition to the warrants of arrest issued for over three hundred leading Muslim Brotherhood members throughout the Arab Republic of Egypt. Of course they have imposed travel restrictions on all of them. This they say is phase two of the Egyptian Arab Spring, on the straight and everlasting path to democracy, for which they probably pray, five times a day, ihdina sirat al mustaqim
It should not come as total surprise since in most of modern Egypt's history it's the military that's been in charge: Nasser; Sadaat, Mubarak, all military cats…
There's this suspect narrative which suggest the genesis of Morsi's woes. You ask yourself the question, how could Morsi be so unwise as to act in this manner:
"Then, after a few months had passed, it became quite clear that the demon wasn't quite as bad as they had imagined. The Muslim Brotherhood stepped back from everything to do with Israel. Once Morsi was elected president, he transferred responsibility for Israel to the army. Having recognized their limitations — the "Brotherhood" could never maintain direct contact with Israel because of a religious prohibition — the movement's leadership decided to act like they didn't and feel like they did. They gave former Defense Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi — and later Gen. Abdul Fatah al-Sisi — total freedom when it came to managing affairs along the border with Israel, while they went about dealing with their own business"
Ostensibly el -Sisi ( sounds like the name of a tornado) is in charge. But who is he taking orders from?
The main question about Egypt's future looms large: by harassing the top members of the Muslim Brotherhood, how does the military power talk about inclusiveness? Is this to be achieved by them trying to downsize the Brotherhood?
There's a great deal more waiting to be said in response to your anticipated reply.
http://www.thelocal.se/blogs/corneliushamelberg/
On Tuesday, 9 July 2013 12:01:26 UTC-7, Anunoby, Ogugua wrote:
--"I'm a little uncomfortable with the military's dislike for the Brotherhood being sufficient reason for them to violate the Egyptian Constitution in order to oust him..."chThank you CH.Which constitution do you refer to" Do you mean the Morsi and his supporters' constitution which was rammed through parliament without the support of the opposition? That constitution neither spoke to the concerns nor the interests of non-Morsi supporters. It was always going to be discarded or radically ammended. It has been announced for example, that a new constitution will replace it.Morsi was elected president in a presidential election that had less than twenty-five percent participation of qualified voters. This causes me to believe that his mandate though acceptable was always questionable? All reports out of Egypt that i know of, have been that the anti-Morsi protesters have significantly outnumbers pro-Morsi supporters. This differnce however imperfect is some quantitative indication of Morsi's unfavorableness with a majority of Egyptians. The differntial means more when one takes into fuller account that Morsi is a member and is sponsored by the Muslim Brotherhood which according to all reliable reports, has been the most politically conscious and organized group in Egypt for decades now.My position happens to be that a government is not a democracy simply because it was "elected" to power. Its agenda and process should be democratic and be inclusive of diverse concerns and interests in the country.Morsi read the election tealealeaves' text seems not to have understand it. His mandate did not justify the radical agenda that he dived into soon after his election. Morsi and his radical drivers may have forgotten that Morsi was as dictatorial as he needed not to be so soon after Egyptians threw out a dictator. Morsi reminds us that "reckless" pursuits are more oftentimes the preference of unthinking and unfeeling extremists. My hunch is the Egyptian military in ousting Morsi, may have saved liberal democracy and worse violent conflict in Egypt.oa
From: Cornelius Hamelberg [cornelius...@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2013 7:14 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com
Cc: abicke...@googlemail.com; Anunoby, Ogugua
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Theory of a Nigerian uprising
Sir,
As always, a sound analysis. It's said that they (the Brotherhood) have not learned from their Brothers in Turkey who kept mum about religion and took the economic problems by the horns. However, methinks that thou dost underestimate or misunderestimate (good George Bush word) the opposition's enmity towards the Muslim Brotherhood - and that the opposition has many allies in and out of Egypt.
Secondly, admittedly more than 90% of Egypt has been feeling the economic pinch since the days of Pharaoh Mubarak. I know for a fact that in 1991 a qualified trainee doctor earned something like $45 (forty five) a month – I managed to get a job in Egypt for $250 a month and free meals at a restaurant - but where is your evidence that "Morsi seems to have lost favor with a majority of Egyptians"? The crowds of demonstrators that still brave it and come out in the streets in their great numbers, to support him? I don't for a minute believe in that fantasy figure they gave about having collected "22 million signatures".22, 000,000 signatures my foot! You can be sure that even the illiterates must have signed, with their blood or sweat or tears…
Thirdly (of course) Morsi could not have "discounted" the Military's own economic interests and the fact that they would not like feeling the pinch themselves as a threat to their already endangered business interest.
The other day I listened to Marwan Bishara 's brilliant analysis of the age and generation factor and the part being played by the youths in contemporary Egyptian politics; that the Revolution was carried forth on the wings of the youths – that it is and was and will be their revolution and that whoever is in power will have to recognize this and address their issues too. 70 % of Egypt's population is below the age of 35!
Finally, I'm a little uncomfortable with the military's dislike for the Brotherhood being sufficient reason for them to violate the Egyptian Constitution in order to oust him - and in this I would be equally distressed if some Nigerian Brigadier-General or other were to take the same extreme, unconstitutional measures against President Goodluck Jonathan. It's time that the soldiers learn that they should stay in their barracks and stop interfering in politics….
http://www.thelocal.se/blogs/
corneliushamelberg/
On Saturday, 6 July 2013 17:21:36 UTC+2, Anunoby, Ogugua wrote:Is the Egypt style uprising possible in Nigeria? Yes it is. Is it likely to happen? I doubt that it is. Nigeria is not a country as Egypt is a country. The political differences in Egypt are ideological for want of a better word. The differences in Nigeria are ethnic. Morsi seems to have lost favor with a majority of Egyptians, including the coalition that elect him president, because he was seen as being mostly interested in implementation of the near century old agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and not the bread and butter- security and employment needs of a majority of today's Egyptians. Egypt is a more secular country that many people realize. The MB know this , deny it, and believe than they can reverse this state of affairs. Morsi sadly shared this delusion. He misjudged his people, under-estimated their determination to move their country forward as a secular modern country, over-estimated the power of the public support of the MB, discounted the Military's dislike for him and the MB.
From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafric...@
googlegroups.com ] On Behalf Of Cornelius Hamelberg
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2013 4:36 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com
Cc: abicke...@googlemail.com
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Theory of a Nigerian uprising
I should also like to observe a little further that Egyptians have now discovered the power that they can exert through mass (massive) protests. Whereas Nigeria I s still lagging behind in that respect. Nigeria is very much a different country and it's difficult to imagine that a few weeks of mass demonstrations in the nation's capital would have succeeded in dislodging someone like Sani Abacha. But people are learning from the demonstrations they see on TV, so it's possible that someday (one fine day) disgruntled Nigerians will join forces to demonstrate their disgust with e.g. the rise in fuel prices or the never expect power always syndrome and the idea of Suffer, suffer, suffer, suffer, suffer Suffer for world na your fault be that
On Thursday, 4 July 2013 17:21:48 UTC+2, Cornelius Hamelberg wrote:The immediate problem facing Egypt is the instability that will inevitably follow deposing Morsy and the Brotherood by a military decree.
It is not the sort of instability that will be conducive to foreign investments, or tourism or economic development.
The only hope I can see is the sort of power-sharing in which the Brotherhood gets a large chunk of the Power and of course the military continues to enjoy controlling 40% of Egypt's economic empire
On Thursday, 4 July 2013 13:04:25 UTC+2, Augustine Togonu-Bickersteth wrote:My Theory is that not until Nigeria achieves a life expectancy of about 75 years would we have the kind of protests in Algeria, Libya,Syria,Egypt and Turkey. These countries suprisinly have better standards of living than Nigeria.In Turkey life expectancy is 73-9 years,Libya 77.88,Syria 75.84,Egypt 73.20 Algeria 73.0 Causes cited by the protestors in Algeria include unemployment, the lack of housing, food-price inflation, corruption, restrictions on freedom of speech and poor living conditions. We have all these and more in Nigeria where life expectancy is a mere 51.86 years. No Nigeria leader would love to be unseated by popular revolt and so what our leaders would do is keep life expectancy to a minimum. Thats my theory
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