Sir,
As always, a sound analysis. It's said that they (the Brotherhood) have not learned from their Brothers in Turkey who kept mum about religion and took the economic problems by the horns. However, methinks that thou dost underestimate or misunderestimate (good George Bush word) the opposition's enmity towards the Muslim Brotherhood - and that the opposition has many allies in and out of Egypt.
Secondly, admittedly more than 90% of Egypt has been feeling the economic pinch since the days of Pharaoh Mubarak. I know for a fact that in 1991 a qualified trainee doctor earned something like $45 (forty five) a month – I managed to get a job in Egypt for $250 a month and free meals at a restaurant - but where is your evidence that "Morsi seems to have lost favor with a majority of Egyptians"? The crowds of demonstrators that still brave it and come out in the streets in their great numbers, to support him? I don't for a minute believe in that fantasy figure they gave about having collected "22 million signatures".22, 000,000 signatures my foot! You can be sure that even the illiterates must have signed, with their blood or sweat or tears…
Thirdly (of course) Morsi could not have "discounted" the Military's own economic interests and the fact that they would not like feeling the pinch themselves as a threat to their already endangered business interest.
The other day I listened to Marwan Bishara 's brilliant analysis of the age and generation factor and the part being played by the youths in contemporary Egyptian politics; that the Revolution was carried forth on the wings of the youths – that it is and was and will be their revolution and that whoever is in power will have to recognize this and address their issues too. 70 % of Egypt's population is below the age of 35!
Finally, I'm a little uncomfortable with the military's dislike for the Brotherhood being sufficient reason for them to violate the Egyptian Constitution in order to oust him - and in this I would be equally distressed if some Nigerian Brigadier-General or other were to take the same extreme, unconstitutional measures against President Goodluck Jonathan. It's time that the soldiers learn that they should stay in their barracks and stop interfering in politics….
On Saturday, 6 July 2013 17:21:36 UTC+2, Anunoby, Ogugua wrote:
--Is the Egypt style uprising possible in Nigeria? Yes it is. Is it likely to happen? I doubt that it is. Nigeria is not a country as Egypt is a country. The political differences in Egypt are ideological for want of a better word. The differences in Nigeria are ethnic. Morsi seems to have lost favor with a majority of Egyptians, including the coalition that elect him president, because he was seen as being mostly interested in implementation of the near century old agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and not the bread and butter- security and employment needs of a majority of today's Egyptians. Egypt is a more secular country that many people realize. The MB know this , deny it, and believe than they can reverse this state of affairs. Morsi sadly shared this delusion. He misjudged his people, under-estimated their determination to move their country forward as a secular modern country, over-estimated the power of the public support of the MB, discounted the Military's dislike for him and the MB.
From: usaafric...@
googlegroups.com [mailto:usaafric...@googlegroups.com ] On Behalf Of Cornelius Hamelberg
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2013 4:36 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com
Cc: abicke...@googlemail.com
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Theory of a Nigerian uprising
I should also like to observe a little further that Egyptians have now discovered the power that they can exert through mass (massive) protests. Whereas Nigeria I s still lagging behind in that respect. Nigeria is very much a different country and it's difficult to imagine that a few weeks of mass demonstrations in the nation's capital would have succeeded in dislodging someone like Sani Abacha. But people are learning from the demonstrations they see on TV, so it's possible that someday (one fine day) disgruntled Nigerians will join forces to demonstrate their disgust with e.g. the rise in fuel prices or the never expect power always syndrome and the idea of Suffer, suffer, suffer, suffer, suffer Suffer for world na your fault be that
On Thursday, 4 July 2013 17:21:48 UTC+2, Cornelius Hamelberg wrote:The immediate problem facing Egypt is the instability that will inevitably follow deposing Morsy and the Brotherood by a military decree.
It is not the sort of instability that will be conducive to foreign investments, or tourism or economic development.
The only hope I can see is the sort of power-sharing in which the Brotherhood gets a large chunk of the Power and of course the military continues to enjoy controlling 40% of Egypt's economic empire
On Thursday, 4 July 2013 13:04:25 UTC+2, Augustine Togonu-Bickersteth wrote:My Theory is that not until Nigeria achieves a life expectancy of about 75 years would we have the kind of protests in Algeria, Libya,Syria,Egypt and Turkey. These countries suprisinly have better standards of living than Nigeria.In Turkey life expectancy is 73-9 years,Libya 77.88,Syria 75.84,Egypt 73.20 Algeria 73.0 Causes cited by the protestors in Algeria include unemployment, the lack of housing, food-price inflation, corruption, restrictions on freedom of speech and poor living conditions. We have all these and more in Nigeria where life expectancy is a mere 51.86 years. No Nigeria leader would love to be unseated by popular revolt and so what our leaders would do is keep life expectancy to a minimum. Thats my theory
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