Thursday, July 4, 2013

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Another 4th of July in Egypt?

Egypt's Atypical Military Coup

Egypt: Military Coup Bodes Ill for Future Stability

Egypt: Persistent Issues Undermine Stability

Egypt: Persistent Issues Undermine Stability

In the Iran of '79, it was all over for the Shah from around the time that his Savak agents and his military got tired of the shoot- to-kill of their own people, and especially so after Imam Khomeini (r.a.) said, "The people is the army and the army is the people!"

It was then all over, since from thereon the two were almost indistinguishable in aspiration and unity of purpose.

I noticed that when al-Sisi read out his military decree, purportedly in the name of the people, he was being bolstered  on all sides by people carefully chosen from Egypt's civil society and that he was flanked by both the Chief Imam of al Azhar ( one of Orthodox Sunnism's grand ayatollahs) and the Pope of Egypt's Coptic Brotherhood, both lined up, sitting comfortably in their respective chairs – and thus giving the impression that they were testifying to their followers, "We are with this latest military move in the name of the bebble"

 In reality - in a democracy the bebble express themselves through the ballot box and not through decrees made by the military or impossible 48 hours ultimatums to fix what cannot be fixed in 48 hours. A military which ignored Morsy's last ditch commitment to forming a more inclusive coalition – and thus no matter which way you look at it or which kind words you use, a democratically elected government was turned upside down by a barrel of a gun named al-Sisi.

Some people say that the desert Arabs are simply not yet ripe for democracy, that they simply just can't handle it. That since they are mostly Muslims and the Prophet Muhammad ( S.a.w) and no one else is the leader of the Muslim caravan , maybe they could all be better off and therefore for their own sakes had better go back to strict Sharia law and Islamic government – that otherwise they'll be needing at least another 48 years within which short time to grow and establish the required democratic institutions that will guarantee the democracy/ crazy demo experiment long-term success. And yes, Cairo is in the middle of the desert – and hot – Alexandria is a beautiful city by the Mediterranean Sea…

In the case of this temporary demise of Morsy and The Brotherhood, it can hardly be said to be "Good riddance to bad rubbish". The Brotherhood has an important future in an Islamic and Christian Egypt which will be more inclusive and more united - otherwise its polarization will continue and the divide and rule will ensure that Egypt will continue as a house divided more by religion and less by class – and class it is if more than 80% of the people live on less than $2 a day or $ 15 a month, unchanged since my half year in Alexandria and Cairo in 1991 (in quest of knowledge and understanding)

The Muslim Brotherhood is and will continue to be a well-organized force to reckon with in Egypt , second only to the military (the king maker) – and to some extent the lifeblood of the nation, the  presently disgruntled business community which has been suffering because of a lack of more direct foreign investments in the country…

A BBC commentator talking to Magdi Abdelhadi, described the military coup  as "A sweet moment for the Constitutional Court" – which Morsy had challenged in November last year – and downsized the judiciary after the siege of that court and the referendum that followed, since he wanted to get rid of some of the judges deemed to be Mubarak appointees and therefore Mubarak's old regime loyalists and sycophants. So,  there we have it: the crunch of the matter: the sine qua non of Western Democracy: the separation of the Executive from the judiciary - apart from high youth unemployment, fuel shortages etc. with only one word missing from the vocabulary of discontent , namely corruption which has usually been the chief cause that  has motivated military coups in Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Gambia, Guinea etc. But Emeka Ojukwu once famously said that the military usually takes over for one reason and one reason alone: for profit –  and that could also include their being bribed to do so. Consider this : The Egyptian military controls 40% of Egypt's economy

To begin with, the Egyptian army would be nothing without the massive financial aid coming from the US of A – and they know it. This suggests that they would not dare to act the way they did in deposing Morsy, without the tacit approval if not connivance of the US, no matter the carefully timed, stage managed public relations utterances that the world has heard through media releases during the on-going drama that Morsy should be more attentive to what his people are saying. Such utterances coming from the White House that was fully informed even as Obama made such statements, knowing fully well that Morsy was under House arrest.

On this date , 4th July, a day the Egyptian people will always remember the new interim President of Egypt was sworn in, the first democratically elected president Mohamed Morsy is still spending his first day as the militarily deposed president under house arrest, whilst  a warrant for the arrest  of two of the Muslim Brotherhoods most senior figures and three hundred other Muslim Brotherhood Brothers has been issued. Goodness knows if the order is merely for all of them to report to the nearest police station as if they were common criminals or  traitors or fugitives from the law of the land or if, more ominously, they are wanted dead or alive as potential trouble-makers who – although the Brotherhood renounced violence some time ago, would nevertheless in these more extreme circumstances be inclined to stand up and fight for their loss of democratic power, their personal freedom and their rights to breathe the Egyptian air as free men and women.

So a Swede, and one not born in Lumumba's Congo for that matter, may well ask, what kind of interim Egyptian democracy is this, when members of the former democratically elected government are under house arrest like common criminal or have to report to the nearest police station (maybe for their own safety) or to protect them for retributive mob violence and rape?

As the author of " William Wilberforce", the UK's Foreign Minister William Hague summed it up on behalf of all the people with democratic credentials in their genes, "We don't support military intervention as a way to resolve disputes in a democratic system, If one president can be deposed by the military then of course another one can be in the future. That's a dangerous thing."

Of course there have been worse case scenarios: Chief Moshood Abiola was unlawfully thrown in jail by a demonic military, after winning a free and fair democratically held presidential election in Nigeria and there he died – in prison   - reminiscent of these lines about "The American Century betrayed by a mad Senate which no longer sleeps with its wife" – so let us pray that Mohamed Morsy does not die in custody for then there may be hell to pay. FIS also won an election in Algeria – some people didn't like that and declared them losers: what happened after that is a history still being played out.

 About what's just happened in Egypt, Turkey is NOT HAPPY !

It remains to be seen how Qatar one of the region's new great players who has invested billions of dollars on and in Egypt will be re-acting over the interim period of at least six months.

As to be expected, Saudi Arabia, the custodian of the two holy places of Mecca and Medina have never been happy with anyone as revolutionary as Sayyid Qutb or Hassan al-Banna or anyone in the Muslim Brotherhood   - at least they are not being neutral or playing " wait and see"  like Israel.

And the Islamic Republic of Iran ?

Finally, what says another Muslim Brotherhood Organization HAMAS of GAZA the Rafah Crossing?

Stay tuned :

http://www.thelocal.se/blogs/corneliushamelberg/

 

ed

 

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