USA Africa Dialogue Series - RE - Nigerian Unity: In the Balance, June 2013 Assessment by the US Army

Two immediate questions ( more to follow):

Some of the diction in this analysis, whilst true e.g. the use of the word "blessed" is also designed for Nigerian consumption, to resonate with the sentiments and perception of the masses and to alert us all to the seriousness of the matter, for  in unity is strength and divided we fall:

 "Nigeria is an Afri­can powerhouse blessed with a large growing economy, huge reserves of oil and natural gas, and the largest popu­lation in Africa, a rich cultural diversity, and powerful regional influence."

Some questions arising from the analysis

Nigerian Unity: In the Balance, June 2013 Assessment by the US Army

1.     In the context of the Boko Haram insurgency, the analysis needs updating, since it does not seem that it has yet taken into consideration the Boko Haram's response/s so far, to President Goodluck Jonathan's offer of amnesty, which was a more successful strategy with his tribesmen, the Delta rebels, whereas it would seem that the Boko Haram people are in no hurry to surrender to offers of amnesty or compassion. Has there been a  corresponding "jobs program" offered in the Boko Haram territories?

 The underlining is mine:

"The United States should also consider more fully supporting the counterinsurgency oriented approach President Jonathan has taken in the Delta. His amnesty and jobs program has seriously weak­ened existing rebel groups. This is in contrast to the more counterterrorism oriented approach taken by the Nigerian government with respect to Boko Ha­ram. For instance, seizing the close relatives of alleged members clearly seems to have produced actionable intelligence for further raids on Boko Haram cadre. However, it has not addressed the causes for Boko Ha­ram's rise and will likely spur more revenge attacks. Boko Haram itself grew out of the forcible suppres­sion of an earlier, similar movement.

Nevertheless, Boko Haram has increased the level of sophistication in its attacks and expanded the range of attacks southward despite the fact that it has little appeal to non-Northerners.223 If this trend continues, the United States should consider using its own in­telligence capabilities to better target Boko Haram's leadership. However, the elimination of Boko Haram's leadership by any element could have permanent ef­fects only if there is a corresponding effort to address the more fundamental centrifugal forces outlined herein that create the political space in which Boko Haram and any likely successor organization operate. "

 

The report states that "The United States has already become Sub-Saharan Afri­ca's second-largest industrial supplier, with American businesses exporting over $6 billion worth of goods to Africa in 2010 and importing goods from Africa worth more than $16 billion.3."

 

"Nigeria is the single most important Sub-Saharan 3 African source of oil for the United States. It supplies 11 percent of U.S. oil imports, making it America's fourth-largest supplier in 2011.6 Nigeria ranks 10th in the world in proven oil reserves with 37.2 billion bar­rels, 10th in production, and eighth in exports "

 

In the section entitled CORRUPTION:" and Nigeria's anti-cor­ruption chief reporting "70% of Nigeria's oil wealth was wasted or stolen in 2003, however, by 2005 the number dipped to 'only' 40%."142"

One cannot avoid being alarmed at oil piracy in Nigeria. In his introduction to that Hardtalk programme with Governor Rotimi Amaechi, Shaun Ley tells us, that oil accounts for 20% of Nigeria's revenue "yet more than $1 billion a month is being lost to thieves who siphon it off from remote pipelines". That's a colossal national loss! Something like $12 billion annually –more than the value of the total US exports to sub-Saharan Africa! Where does all that oil go? Who buys it? Who profits? That kind of Delta oil banditry is also a matter of national security that has to be addressed immediately!

 

 

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin.
For current archives, visit http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
For previous archives, visit http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue-
unsubscribe@googlegroups.com
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.