REVISED....
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SUNDAY MUSINGS: On the Matter of Update on PVCs - and the Unnecessary-ness of Election Postponement
by
Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
February 1, 2015
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My People:
At last February 2015 is here....the election month that all have been waiting for - or have we?
Well, five good pieces of news have emanated from Jega's INEC recently since the first release of their PVC distribution on January 9 to give some breathing relief:
(1) The PVCs for all the 68,833,735 eligible voters have now been printed - and presumabely received at HQ at Abuja - up from only 54,341,610 PVCs received by that January 9.
(2) So far, 42,867,410 eligible voters have now picked up their PVCs, up from 38,774,391 back on January 9. That is an uptick of 4,093,019, with a new pick-up rate of 62.28%.
(3) INEC has pledged to leave the PVC collection lights on ( i.e. extended the deadline on collection) until February 8 rather than yesterday January 31.. That requires approximately 3.3 million PVC pickups per day for completion - or about 4,300 pickups per local government per day, or 400 per ward per day, which are quite attainable.
(4) If all fails, INEC is prepared to enable collection of PVCs up until the eve of elections. That is commendable, except that it introduces the uncertainty of knowing the total actual number of voters beforehand, with its attendant heightened "rigging" possibilities. A banana peel to watch out for...
(5) electronic PVC card readers will be used to read official PVCs and to transmit total number of voters - and results (?) - so that cloned PVCs will be of no use. However does that not amount to electronic voting, currently banned by legislative order? What happens if the electronic readers break down - deliberately or in-deliberately? Will manual admission of voters and/or of voting be done and/or admissible as backup? Besides, can we please see samples of the ballot papers, and more importantly, a PUBLIC demonstration of these electronic readers - and "voting" - so that there are no confidence-shattering surprises on Election Day?
All in all, with all these latest INEC announcements, postponing the February 14-28 elections will absolutely not be necessary - all the kites being flown are not aloft at all, and that window of postponement by a Senate resolution is over. Like childbirth, we should just get the "pain" over with, no matter its outcome. My colleague Prof. Attahiru Jega should resist all pressures for postponement, and should retire in peace back to BUK immediately thereafter as he has promised.
Finally, I have been looking at the details of the new PVC distributions from January 9 to January 27. There are some strange results, particularly with respect to some states - for example, absolutely zero additional pick-ups for three weeks (Imo, Rivers, Ondo, Yobe,Jigawa, Sokoto and Benue), and even NEGATIVE pick-up for Ogun state (672,017 on January 9, 666,752 on January 27) and Kano (2,771,185 and 2,612,400 respectively) - very strange!
All in all, there are still a lot of apprehensions about February 14 and 28 in terms of process and outcome. The interesting matter is that whoever wins among the top two presidential contenders will be a miracle...no more than two million votes on either side of a win in a tight race, fueled by presently uncertain geo-political re-alignments - but miracles do happen.
And there you have it. Let us pray....
Bolaji Aluko
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TABLE 1: Update on PVCs Distributed by INEC – by Geo-Zone
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received By INEC by Jan 7 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| SW | 13,731,349 | | 10,602,164 | | 6,270,736 | 6,403,530 | 132,794 | 46.35% | |
| SE | 7,665,859 | | 6,082,994 | | 3,915,241 | 4,378,329 | 463,088 | 57.11% | |
| SS | 10,059,347 | | 8,360,814 | | 5,756,018 | 6,214,977 | 458,959 | 61.78% | |
| TOTAL SOUTH | 31,456,555 | | 25,045,972 | | 15,941,995 | 16,996,836 | 1,054,841 | 53.89% | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| NW | 17,620,436 | | 14,155,693 | | 12,013,961 | 12,784,880 | 770,919 | 72.56% | |
| NE | 9,107,861 | | 6,403,291 | | 4,886,499 | 6,678,148 | 1,791,649 | 73.32% | |
| NC | 9,767,411 | | 7,886,294 | | 5,520,001 | 5,947,633 | 427,632 | 60.89% | |
| TOTAL NORTH | 36,495,708 | | 28,445,278 | | 22,420,461 | 25,410,661 | 2,990,200 | 69.63% | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| FCT | 881,472 | | 850,360 | | 411,935 | 459,913 | 47,978 | 52.18% | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| TOTAL COUNTRY | 68,833,735 | | 54,341,610 | | 38,774,391 | 42,867,410 | 4,093,019 | 62.28% | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
TABLES 2: Updates on PVCs Distributed by INEC – by State
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received By INEC by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remark | |
| Ekiti | 732,021 | | 732,166 | | 481,198 | 492,869 | 11,671 | 67.33% | | |
| Lagos | 5,822,207 | | 4,000,000 | | 2,159,091 | 2,267,039 | 107,948 | 38.39% | | |
| Ogun | 1,829,534 | | 1,175,244 | | 672,017 | 666,752 | -5,265 | 36.40% | | |
| Ondo | 1,524,655 | | 1,303,237 | | 824,715 | 824,715 | 0 | 54.09%) | | |
| Osun | 1,407,107 | | 1,406,147 | | 992,310 | 995,562 | 3,252 | 70.75% | | |
| Oyo | 2,415,825 | | 1,985,370 | | 1,141,405 | 1,156,593 | 15,188 | 47.88% | | |
| TOTAL SW | 13,731,349 | | 10,602,164 | | 6,270,736 | 6,403,530 | 132,794 | 46.35% | | |
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remarks | |
| Abia | 1,396,162 | | 1,241,257 | | 1,020,601 | 1,020,997 | 396 | 73.13% | | |
| Anambra | 1,963,173 | | 1,665,342 | | 862,747 | 1,222,002 | 359,255 | 62.25% | | |
| Ebonyi | 1,074,273 | | 918,503 | | 687,402 | 714,351 | 26,949 | 66.50% | | |
| Imo | 1,803,030 | | 1,252,307 | | 682,046 | 682,046 | 0 | 37.24% | | |
| Enugu | 1,429,221 | | 1,005,585 | | 662,445 | 738,933 | 76,488 | 51.70% | | |
| TOTAL SE | 7,665,859 | | 6,082,994 | | 3,915,241 | 4,378,329 | 463,088 | 57.11% | | |
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distrib. Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remark | |
| Akwa Ibom | 1,680,759 | | 1,468,780 | | 1,177,910 | 1,328,714 | 150,804 | 79.05% | | |
| Bayelsa | 610,373 | | 465,902 | | 370,062 | 386,125 | 16,063 | 63.26% | | |
| Cross River | 1,175,623 | | 1,025,760 | | 763,436 | 776,977 | 13,541 | 66.09% | | |
| Delta | 2,275,264 | | 1,909,291 | | 1,260,728 | 1,422,595 | 161,867 | 62.52% | | |
| Edo | 1,779,738 | | 1,534,098 | | 930,276 | 1,046,960 | 116,684 | 58.63% | | |
| Rivers | 2,537,590 | | 1,956,983 | | 1,253,606 | 1,253,606 | 0 | 49.40% | | |
| TOTAL SS | 10,059,347 | | 8,360,814 | | 5,756,018 | 6,214,977 | 458,959 | 61.78% | | |
1.
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remark | |
| Jigawa | 1,831,276 | | 1,551,831 | | 1,460,620 | 1,460,620 | 0 | 79.76% | | |
| Kaduna | 3,407,222 | | 3,219,994 | | 2,643,517 | 2,976,628 | 333,111 | 87.36% | | |
| Kano | 4,975,701 | | 3,198,859 | | 2,771,185 | 2,612,400 | -158,785 | 52.50% | | |
| Katsina | 2,827,943 | | 2,379,766 | | 1,965,840 | 2,245,303 | 279,463 | 79.40% | | |
| Kebbi | 1,470,648 | | 1,306,405 | | 1,035,780 | 1,232,357 | 196,577 | 83.80% | | |
| Sokoto | 1,611,929 | | 1,398,010 | | 1,211,717 | 1,211,717 | 0 | 75.17% | | |
| Zamfara | 1,495,717 | | 1,100,828 | | 925,302 | 1,045,855 | 120,553 | 69.92% | | |
| TOTAL NW | 17,620,436 | | 14,155,693 | | -12,013,961 | 12,784,880 | 770,919 | 72.56% | | |
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remark | |
| Adamawa | 1,559,012 | | 1,529,636 | | 912,312 | 1,239,820 | 327,508 | 79.53% | | |
| Bauchi | 2,054,125 | | 1,799,952 | | 1,509,255 | 1,745,441 | 236,186 | 84.97% | | |
| Gombe | 1,120,023 | | 982,423 | | 802,959 | 873,698 | 70,739 | 78.01% | | |
| Borno | 1,934,079 | | 0 | | 0 | 999,470 | 999,470 | 56.18% | | |
| Taraba | 1,340,652 | | 1,180,950 | | 921,637 | 1,079,383 | 157,746 | 80.51% | | |
| Yobe | 1,099,970 | | 910,330 | | 740,336 | 740,336 | 0 | 67.31% | | |
| TOTAL NE | 9,107,861 | | 6,403,291 | | 4,886,499 | 6,678,148 | 1,791,649 | 73.32% | | |
1.
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remark | |
| Benue | 2,015,452 | | 1,641,694 | | 1,132,187 | 1,132,187 | 0 | 56.18% | | |
| Kogi | 1,350,883 | | 1,189,621 | | 755,775 | 773,197 | 17,422 | 57.24% | | |
| Kwara | 1,142,267 | | 1,032,970 | | 670,694 | 711,920 | 41,226 | 62.33% | | |
| Nasarawa | 1,242,667 | | 1,135,403 | | 799,991 | 850,619 | 50,628 | 66.45% | | |
| Niger | 2,014,317 | | 1,526,801 | | 1,089,002 | 1,250,379 | 161,377 | 62.07% | | |
| Plateau | 2,001,825 | | 1,359,805 | | 1,072,352 | 1,141,260 | 68,908 | 57.01% | | |
| TOTAL NC | 9,767,411 | | 7,886,294 | | 5,520,001 | 5,859,562 | 339,561 | 60.89% | | |
.
| State | No. of Reg. Voters NRV | | PVCs Printed And Received by Jan 9 | | PVCs Distributed by Jan 9 | PVCs Distributed by Jan 27 | Diff. in PVCs Jan 27 minus Jan 9 | New % PV Distributed Of NRV by Jan 27 | Remark | |
| FCT | 881,472 | | 850,360 | | 411,935 | 459,913 | 47,978 | 52.18% | | |
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