Dear all,
There is too much hype about the effects of Brexit. Great Britain will eat its cake and have it back for two reasons: London and the Great Child. The Europeans need the UK much as the Uk needs the Europeans. It is in their mutual interest to insure that a minimal cost is paid for the exit on both sides. Excising London from the EU is like taking the heart out of the body. London is too important and they both know it. so, London will save the UK.
Then, the great child, the US. England will fall only if the US falls! and that will not be in our lifetime. England will consolidate its Anglo-saxon heritage with the US the same way the state of Israel has consolidated its Judeo-Christian connections. The US will be crucial to the future of the UK. the US will save the UK. All the players know this. but in the meantime, the UK would have regained control of its borders from "others". its "sovereignty" in a way, is never considered abrogated under the protection of its great child. The UK is no Japan. The people voting to leave are not mere fools. they know that when the dust settles, there will be nothing really to worry about.
Bode
On Sun, Jun 26, 2016 at 11:14 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
--Damned if you do, damned if you don;t....classical Hobbesian Choices after a Cameron post-Brexit "coup" of quitting, and refusing to steer the Brexit ship...
BREXIT UPDATE
An article ... From the Guardians comments section
June 25, 2016If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign._______________________________________________________________
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