Friday, June 24, 2016

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - UNSTAR NEWS: UK exits the EU by 52% to 48% of votes, Pound Sterling falls in forex market; Bank of England's Carney speaks after UK votes for Brexit



My People:

This is precisely the Bode point:  that a PARTICULAR voting exercise outcome has DIFFERENT CONSEQUENCES to the different INDIVIDUALS and different GROUPS of people.  Now provided the vote is 

(1)  not BOUGHT - in which case the individual voters might have thrown away their own consideration of any consequences of the voting outcome (that an individual voter accepts a bribe does not mean he would not have voted that way anyway; it just makes the voting sweeter, in a perverse way).

(2)  not RIGGED - in which the most important issue is the consequence of the OUTCOME to the groups of riggers, irrespective of the group interest of those who would not have so voted (the group who would have voted along the outcome of the rigged vote often welcome the outcome, even when they know it has been rigged.)


the campaign leading up to the vote MUST deliberately target EACH of the matrix of groups identified for that particular voting exercise:

  (1)  Young and Old
  (2)  Male and Female
  (3)  Rich, Middle-Class and Poor
  (4)  Urban and Rural
  (5)  Working (Employed) and Non-Working (Unemployed)
  (6)  Muslim, Christian and "non-Muslian"/non-"Chrislim"
  (7)  Educated and non-Educated
  (8)  White-collar and Blue-Collar

At the heart of a particular successful campaign must be accurate class and sub-class demography - complete with census and geo-and communication-location,  and ability to send appropriate messenger and message to each of them.  Otherwise, every other thing is a crap-shoot, and you are left with the desperation of buying or rigging votes.  

Luckily, the Brexit election does not appear bought or rigged, but it appears that the Cameron group did (or did not) properly do their work with Sub-Class 1 enough  - with 75% of the Young voting to remain, the Old (who would soon disappear) voting overwhelmingly to leave the EU.  It is this aspect that the Obama campaign did quite well in 2008 and 2012, and which Hillary is borrowing.  And it is a lesson from a post-mortem of failure which the Republican Party is jettisoning...to their own peril.

And there you have it.



Bolaji Aluko

On Fri, Jun 24, 2016 at 8:44 PM, Bode <ominira@gmail.com> wrote:
To add to this : that one vote means different things to different voters who voted to leave. One vote, infinite voices,. What is the message in the end? Aggregation?

On Fri, Jun 24, 2016 at 3:28 PM kenneth harrow <harrow@msu.edu> wrote:

i get the point, but the people are not a single, unified mass entity. is there any country in which the population is not divided, and usually roughly 50-50? which side are the people on?

further, "the people" is often conflated with the less well-educated or less well-paid. the working class. the proletariat; the under-developed masses, etc. yet, all those groups are also divided, say, between traditionalists and modernist, young and old, etc.

other questions about the opinion of the people: is this opinion multiple? is it subject to media pressures?

etc

k


On 6/24/16 1:22 PM, Bode wrote:
He won the Scottish No vote. Maybe thought he could win brexit too. Everyone was betting on it. The problem with democratic rule is you can't ignore the opinion of the people even if you are convinced they are ill-informed and regressive. Sometimes you lose both ways whatever you do : either you tell the people they are ignorant or you put their agenda on the ballot.
On Fri, Jun 24, 2016 at 12:50 PM kenneth harrow <harrow@msu.edu> wrote:

moses uses the phrase "nativist pandering," which is precisely right and applies across the board, as everyone immediately recognized, to the rightwing, far-right wing parties in europe, and of course to trump...not to mention putin. why is it that in some cases this fearmongering works better than others? the link between a technologically driven economy, increased migration, and militant deployments of state power--all defining the globalization, neoliberal conjuncture--all this means that what happened in england is paralleled elsewhere, and is a feature of our current economic, political context. hard times for cosmopolitan types who actually want to celebrate otherness and diversity

ken


On 6/24/16 11:19 AM, Moses Ebe Ochonu wrote:
I was in the UK on a research trip two years ago during the run-up to the elections. The election campaign was all over British TV stations. That's all they talked about. Mr. David Cameron was campaigning aggressively on the referendum. He used the referendum to both pander to the far right of his tory party and to fend off challenges from nativist flank of UK politics, namely the UKIP folks. It worked and drove many nationalists/nativists to vote for him ahead of UKIP. The promise of a referendum was key to winning over folks on the far right. I remember thinking to myself while watching the campaigns that this guy may have unwittingly mortgaged his political future on a risky political maneuver and may win a short term victory and lose the long term war. What if the referendum favored leaving the EU, I remember thinking to myself. The gamble would have backfired, the nativist pandering would have exploded in his face. Now that is exactly what seems to have happened. Was being the prime minister for two years worth the nativist pandering of promising a referendum during the last elections against Cameron's own political convictions? Politicians should learn from this and know that they cannot have it both ways. They cannot pander to voters' base instincts in one moment and then try to disabuse them of those instincts in another moment--all for opportunistic political gains. Voters tend to see through it.

On Fri, Jun 24, 2016 at 4:35 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:

My People:


Democracy in the UK has spoken....the British people, Europe, UK's partners (Nigeria, Commonwealth, etc.) will have to face the consequences......both positive and negative....

The regional distribution of voting though shows that the United Kingdom is not quite united.....


Bolaji Aluko


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BBC


UK exits the EU by 52% to 48% of votes, Pound Sterling falls in forex market


The UK has voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union after 43 years in an historic referendum.


London and Scotland voted strongly to stay in the EU but the remain vote has been undermined by poor results in the north of England.


UKIP leader Nigel Farage hailed the result as the UK's "independence day".


The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results.


The referendum turnout was 71.8% – with more than 30 million people voting – the highest turnout at a UK election since 1992.


Wales and the majority of England outside London voted in large numbers for Brexit.


Labour's Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the Bank of England may have to intervene to shore up the pound, which lost 3% within moments of the first result showing a strong result for Leave in Sunderland and fell as much as 6.5% against the euro.


UKIP leader Nigel Farage – who has campaigned for the past 20 years for Britain to leave the EU – told cheering supporters "this will be a victory for ordinary people, for decent people".


Mr Farage – who predicted a Remain win at the start of the night after polls suggested that would happen – said Thursday 23 June would "go down in history as our independence day".


He called on Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum but campaigned passionately for a Remain vote, to quit "immediately".


A Labour source said: "If we vote to leave, Cameron should seriously consider his position."


But pro-Leave Conservatives including Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have signed a letter to Mr Cameron urging him to stay on whatever the result.


Labour former Europe Minister Keith Vaz told the BBC the British people had voted with their "emotions" and rejected the advice of experts who had warned about the economic impact of leaving the EU.


He said the EU should call an emergency summit to deal with the aftermath of the vote, which he described as "catastrophic for our country, for the rest of Europe and for the rest of the world".


Germany's foreign minister Frank Walter Steinmeier describes the referendum result as as "a sad day for Europe and Great Britain".


But Leave supporting Tory MP Liam Fox said voters had shown great "courage" by deciding to "change the course of history" for the UK and, he hoped, the rest of Europe.


And he called for a "period of calm, a period of reflection, to let it all sink in and to work through what the actual technicalities are," insisting that Mr Cameron must stay on as PM.


Exit process


Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that the EU vote "makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union" after all 32 local authority areas returned majorities for Remain. BBC


_______________________________________________________________





The full text of the statement delivered by Prime Minister David Cameron after British voters in a referendum elected to leave the European Union:


The country has just taken part in a giant democratic exercise — perhaps the biggest in our history. Over 33 million people — from England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar — have all had their say.

We should be proud of the fact that in these islands we trust the people with these big decisions.

We not only have a parliamentary democracy, but on questions about the arrangements for how we are governed, there are times when it is right to ask the people themselves, and that is what we have done.

The British people have voted to leave the European Union, and their will must be respected.

I want to thank everyone who took part in the campaign on my side of the argument, including all those who put aside party differences to speak in what they believed was the national interest.

And let me congratulate all those who took part in the "Leave" campaign — for the spirited and passionate case that they made.

The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered. It was not a decision that was taken lightly, not least because so many things were said by so many different organizations about the significance of this decision.

So there can be no doubt about the result.

Across the world people have been watching the choice that Britain has made. I would reassure those markets and investors that Britain's economy is fundamentally strong.

And I would also reassure Brits living in European countries, and European citizens living here, that there will be no immediate changes in your circumstances. There will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.
 
We must now prepare for a negotiation with the European Union. This will need to involve the full engagement of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland governments to ensure that the interests of all parts of our United Kingdom are protected and advanced.

But above all this will require strong, determined and committed leadership.

I am very proud and very honored to have been prime minister of this country for six years.

I believe we have made great steps, with more people in work than ever before in our history, with reforms to welfare and education, increasing people's life chances, building a bigger and stronger society, keeping our promises to the poorest people in the world, and enabling those who love each other to get married whatever their sexuality.

But above all restoring Britain's economic strength, and I am grateful to everyone who has helped to make that happen.

I have also always believed that we have to confront big decisions — not duck them.

That's why we delivered the first coalition government in 70 years to bring our economy back from the brink. It's why we delivered a fair, legal and decisive referendum in Scotland. And why I made the pledge to renegotiate Britain's position in the European Union and hold a referendum on our membership, and have carried those things out.

I fought this campaign in the only way I know how — which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel — head, heart and soul.

I held nothing back.

I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union, and I made clear the referendum was about this and this alone — not the future of any single politician, including myself.

But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path, and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.

I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

This is not a decision I have taken lightly, but I do believe it is in the national interest to have a period of stability and then the new leadership required.

There is no need for a precise timetable today, but in my view we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the start of the Conservative Party conference in October.

Delivering stability will be important, and I will continue in post as prime minister with my cabinet for the next three months. The cabinet will meet on Monday.

The governor of the Bank of England is making a statement about the steps that the bank and the Treasury are taking to reassure financial markets. We will also continue taking forward the important legislation that we set before Parliament in the Queen's Speech. And I have spoken to Her Majesty, the Queen, this morning to advise her of the steps that I am taking.

A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister, and I think it is right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger Article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the E.U.

I will attend the European Council next week to explain the decision the British people have taken and my own decision.

The British people have made a choice. That not only needs to be respected — but those on the losing side of the argument, myself included, should help to make it work.

Britain is a special country.

We have so many great advantages.

A parliamentary democracy where we resolve great issues about our future through peaceful debate.

A great trading nation, with our science and arts, our engineering and our creativity respected the world over.

And while we are not perfect, I do believe we can be a model of a multiracial, multifaith democracy, where people can come and make a contribution and rise to the very highest that their talent allows.

Although leaving Europe was not the path I recommended, I am the first to praise our incredible strengths.

I have said before that Britain can survive outside the European Union, and indeed that we could find a way.

Now the decision has been made to leave, we need to find the best way.

And I will do everything I can to help.

I love this country — and I feel honored to have served it.

And I will do everything I can in future to help this great country succeed.


_______________________________________________________________



TEXT-Bank of England's Carney speaks after UK votes for Brexit

Reuters - UK FocusReuters - UK Focus –

LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made a statement after voters decided in a referendum that Britain should leave the European Union.

Here is his full statement:

The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave the European Union.

Inevitably, there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment following this result.

There will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.

And it will take some time for the United Kingdom to establish new relationships with Europe and the rest of the world.

Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfolds.

But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the Chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning.

The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward.

These adjustments will be supported by a resilient UK financial system - one that the Bank of England has consistently strengthened over the last seven years.

The capital requirements of our largest banks are now ten times higher than before the crisis.

The Bank of England has stress tested them against scenarios more severe than the country currently faces.

As a result of these actions, UK banks have raised over 130 billion pounds of capital, and now have more than 600 billion pounds of high quality liquid assets.

Why does this matter?

This substantial capital and huge liquidity gives banks the flexibility they need to continue to lend to UK businesses and households, even during challenging times.

Moreover, as a backstop, and to support the functioning of markets, the Bank of England stands ready to provide more than 250 billion of additional funds through its normal facilities.

The Bank of England is also able to provide substantial liquidity in foreign currency, if required.

We expect institutions to draw on this funding if and when appropriate, just as we expect them to draw on their own resources as needed in order to provide credit, to support markets and to supply other financial services to the real economy.

In the coming weeks, the Bank will assess economic conditions and will consider any additional policy responses.

A few months ago, the Bank judged that the risks around the referendum were the most significant, near-term domestic risks to financial stability.

To mitigate them, the Bank of England has put in place extensive contingency plans.

These begin with ensuring that the core of our financial system is well-capitalised, liquid and strong. This resilience is backed up by the Bank of England's liquidity facilities in sterling and foreign currencies.

All these resources will support orderly market functioning in the face of any short-term volatility.

The Bank will continue to consult and cooperate with all relevant domestic and international authorities to ensure that the UK financial system can absorb any stresses and can concentrate on serving the real economy.

That economy will adjust to new trading relationships that will be put in place over time. It (Other OTC: ITGL - news) is these public and private decisions that will determine the UK's long-term economic prospects.

The best contribution of the Bank of England to this process is to continue to pursue relentlessly our responsibilities for monetary and financial stability. These are unchanged.

We have taken all the necessary steps to prepare for today's events.

In the future we will not hesitate to take any additional measures required to meet our responsibilities as the United Kingdom moves forward. (Reporting by Estelle Shirbon)

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--   kenneth w. harrow   professor of english  michigan state university  department of english  619 red cedar road  room C-614 wells hall  east lansing, mi 48824  ph. 517 803 8839  harrow@msu.edu
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