National Blackout Imminent Due To Activities Of Militants – Fashola Warns
SAN FRANCISCO, June 13, (THEWILL) -Babatunde Fashola, Minister of power, work and housing, has warned that the activities of the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) is s major threat to the nation's quest to stabilise electricity supply in the country and could lead to national blackout.
Speaking with journalists on the side-lines of the sixth monthly meeting of operators in the power sector, held in Kano, Monday, Fashola revealed that the group, since it started attacks on national assets from February 14 to date, has carried out destruction of 23 gas pipelines across the Niger Delta states.
"Let me say first time that the first major pipeline vandalised happened in Forcados on the 14th of February. Before, as at the 2nd of February, we were generating 5000 megawatts. When that pipeline was vandalised on the 14th of February, electricity generation dropped to 3000 megawatts," he said.
"Since then to the 2nd of June, there have been 14 attacks on oil pipelines; and so, as a result of that, the 23 gas pipelines that we have are not getting enough gas to fire their turbines. So, we are gradually and entirely dependent now on the hydropower, which is coming from the Kainji.
"So, the impact is quite significant; but I can assure you that it is temporary, and we are trying our best to restore the damaged pipelines. But more importantly, we are reviving our energy resources.
"If you remember the last time I spoke to the press, I talked about the energy mix. You know, Nigeria is lucky; we can generate power from hydro, solar, coal and gas. So, the energy mix has become more important now because of the risk in single reliance on gas towards our energy security.
"Now, building new power plants take nothing less than 18 to 24 months. So, as we are going forward, we will be using more coal, and more hydro, as well as solar, so that in the medium time, Nigeria will not be over-dependent on gas, which is what we are doing. So, that is why I say this is temporary.
"In the interim, we are working on to improve our capacity to transmit. I think by the end of August, when the impact on the project in the transmission begins to be felt, we should be able to improve power in Calabar, Ekot-Ekpeni, and from there evacuate some more power."
My People:And here is the major problem:QUOTEIn his opening remarks, Minister Fashola warned that we should not focus too much on rapid results but rather on sustainable results. He knows what he is talking about because at the beginning of the Buhari Administration, electricity supply had improved considerable only for it to embark on a rapid downward slide. It will be recalled that at the tail end of the Jonathan administration, Nigeria witnessed a decline in her power output, to an all-time low of 1,327MW in May 2015. On 29 July 2015, the management of Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that the national grid transmission has recorded an increase from 4,000MW in early July to its highest peak of 4,810.7MW as at 25 August. The crisis of the power sector, explains Fashola is that Nigeria has 26 power plants and 23 of them are gas fired so immediately gas supply was sabotaged, it became impossible to sustain a reasonable level of power supply. The problem speaks to a larger problem of lack of strategic thinking in our planning and development process.- by Jibrin Ibrahim in "Watching the President"UNQUOTESo not just do we have 88.5% of our power plants (in terms of number) as being gas-fired, but also 80% of the nameplate capacity (in terms of Megawatts) is also gas-fired. That is an unhealthy over-dependence that is similar to our financial dependence on oil and gas - 80% of our national income, 90% of our foreign earnings, and 40% of our GDP, which all expose us to serious dislocations when any unfavorable events beyond our control happen..In a June 2015 essay entitled" SUNDAY MUSINGS: The Case for an Energy Emergency in Nigeria - Again"I stated viz:QUOTE(6) Of the twenty-three (23) power plants in the country with a total nameplate of 10,644 MW (10.6 GW), three are hydroelectric (15% of total nameplate capacity), and the rest (85% of total nameplate capacity) are thermal. Of the twenty thermal plants, one (1) is a steam plant only (10% nameplate capacity), one (1) is combined steam and SCGT (each separate, 8%), three (3) are CCGT (17% of total nameplate capacity) while the remaining fifteen (15) are SCGT (about 50%). [See Figure 6 for a graph of the capacities and generations of power plants, and Figure 7 for their geographical disposition.] Last week, according to the following report, eighteen of these plants were shut down, with only 737 MW (roughly equivalent to availability of 210 MMcf/d if all were SCGT power generators) being generated country-wide – the lowest in recent history.... materials deleted....AND SO WHAT IS TO BE DONE ABOUT THE ENERGY CRISIS?
The solution has to be discussed in five parts;
(1) Gas infrastructure development, protection and pricing
(2) Power infrastructure development, protection and pricing
(3) Crude oil/Petroleum Product infrastructure development, protection and pricing
(4) Politics and Bureaucracy
(5) Legislation
Gas infrastructure development, protection and pricing
As already indicated above, if Nigeria is to have the same per capita power capacity as (say) South Africa, we would need to generate 120,000 MW of electricity. If 80% of this is to be driven by gas, then 100,000 MW of power requires at least about 30 bcf/day of gas of DELIVERY for electricity, not just total production. That figure is six times the present TOTAL production rate of 5 bcf/day. That means that we must be prepared to produce 300 bcf/day of gas if (as of today) only 10% of gas production is to be devoted to electricity – which amounts to almost two orders-of-magnitude increase in total production. All of this means more opening up of gas fields (both associated and non-associated), more gas and gas treatment plants, more pipelines from fields to LNG plants, and to users, (power plants and to industries and homes). More pipelines (by expanding the Eastern and Western Network Pipeline Systems, particularly the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS; ELPS is part of the WAGP West African Gas Pipeline system)), and linking the East and West systems (through the proposed Oben-Obriafu Obrikom Ob-Ob-Ob interconnect) will require greater readiness to MONITOR and PROTECT them 24/7 – via human protection and via technology (SCADA and GIS mapping) – with tampering of pipelines being declared a near-capital national security offence. All of this requires billions and trillions of Naira which Government by itself cannot afford, and so private investment must be encouraged. However, if gas is NOT to be ferried differentially to non-power uses, its pricing per mmBTU (or scf) to all users must be brought to cost-reflective par, and gas-to-power purchasing agreements firmed up and guaranteed.
Power infrastructure development, protection and pricing
With respect to power generation, despite the advantage of use of gas in power generation, clearly exposure to gas supply vagaries must be reduced if power is to be available, adequate and reliable. One quick way is to convert as many SCGT plants to CCGT plants, which, while capital intensive, almost doubles the power capacity of the plants for the same amount of gas. Another quick way is that favorable gas pricing for power can also lead to some LNG being re-diverted to power generation rather than being exported, a reverse path suggested in Fig. 4a. Most importantly, the mix of energy sources must be enlarged and regionalized to include coal, (crude) oil, solar, wind, biomass and even nuclear technology (see Figures 14 and 15), with both distributed/embedded generation (of 20-100 MW per plant or even less) being encouraged nation-wide. Distributing and reducing the average capacity of each power plant, and increasing grid transmission voltage from 330 V to 440-726V (to reduce transmission losses) are essential options to consider and implement. Again, power-line protection, like pipelines, must be given national priority using security personnel and technology, while competitive tariffs (eg Naira per kilowatt-hr kWh of energy supplied) must be set so that private investors can re-coup their money (capex recovery, opex and maintenance sustenance, and profit). However, while users are interested in affordable tariff (naira per Kwh) regimes - whether single- or multi-year (MYTO); see Figure 18 - one can understand that they are most interested both in power reliability and in their ability to METER their own usage rather than be subjected to the present unsavory regime of estimated billings. Consequently an aggressive METER-PROVISION (including pre-paid metering) exercise must be embarked upon.
Crude oil/Petroleum Product infrastructure development, protection and pricing
Although much emphasis of this essay has so far been placed on gas and gas-to-power, issues about crude oil and petroleum products affect Nigeria's economy and citizen life just as much. Crude oil export sale – like increasingly LNG sale - continues to be the main income earner (70%) for Nigeria. At about 2.0 million barrels per day production rate, crude oil in the recent past earned Nigeria up to $250 million per day, but is now down to about half of that amount or less due to weak international oil prices (see Figure 16) and sales (Nigeria's former major buyer, the USA, once at 59%, has completely cut off sales since July 2014). Clearly, we must increase our oil production while looking for new crude oil markets elsewhere particularly in Asia (particularly China and India) – in the presence of the onslaught of the "democratic" discovery of shale deposits and oil deposits in many countries around the world, and a crude oil glut in the USA. Most importantly, we must add value domestically to our crude oil to combat the present national predicament.
With respect to the domestic market, the four national refineries (in Port Harcourt (two), Warri and Kaduna) with a nameplate of 445,000 barrels per day have been operating at less than 30%, capacity, resulting in the perennial need to import refined products (particular PMS, kerosene and diesel) to satisfy domestic needs, with its attendant outrageous subsidy requirements and alleged graft and sharp practices (eg round-tripping) by various importers. In this regard, Dangote's recent announcement to commence a 650,000 bpd private refinery by 2017, complete with a 3.6 million tonne per annum plant for polypropylene (2.mtpa) and polythene (1.6 mtpa) is very welcome. Oil and product pipeline vandalism, unacceptable pricing for investor confidence and incompetence at the refineries have all conspired to cause the ongoing serious petro-fuel crisis in the country. Clearly the oil pipelines must be protected in a manner recommended for the gas pipelines; more and larger depots should be constructed to store more fuel and reduce disruptions in supply; subsidies for refined products must be gradually removed and the savings deployed in revamping/turning around the national refineries; the investment environment for private modular refineries (less than say 60,000 bpd), as well as pipeline and depot construction around the country should be encouraged through both tax incentives and appropriate price guarantees. Finally, a multi-modal national mass transportation system, particularly with a focus on rail (to transport man and material like crude and petroleum products, for example) should be rapidly developed to reduce the dependence of transportation on PMS and diesel.
Politics and Bureaucracy
The regionalization and enlargement of the mix of energy sources for power generation and general use will reduce the politics of near-blackmail which predominant sources (such as oil and gas) encourage. It will also diffuse the cabals of technocrats which have festered particularly in the NNPC/NPDC/DPR/NGC, and NEPA/PHCN etc. over the years, technocrats who, in a round-robin manner, have practically held the nation to ransom, and who have given scant attention to trends in the international energy market, thereby leaving the country in the lurch when adverse conditions arrive. These institutions themselves require comprehensive administrative and financial scrutiny. Finally, political patronage which sells off oil blocks to individuals, or enables the stifling by political barons of the take-off of worthy projects (eg. Of the refineries, of of (say) Geometric Power's ring-fenced Aba IPP's 141 MW gas plant despite ten years of hard work and $500 million investment) should not be permitted.
Legislation
No matter what policies or programs are arrived at, until and unless they are cast as laws and regulations, investors will hedge in their full participation in the energy sector, and other participants in the energy value chain will not fully deliver the much-needed infrastructure and services. Consumers will be exposed to the vagaries of the market. In this regard, the Electric Power Sector Reform (EPSR) Bill [whose major outcomes have been the unbundling of the electricity sector and setting of generation, transmission and distribution tariffs] and the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) [which seeks to consolidate the sixteen oil and gas laws in the country into a coherent framework, and re-organize government participation in Joint Ventures (JVs), Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs), Joint Operatorship Model (JOM), etc.)] should be thoroughly given a new combing-through by the new Buhari administration, for comprehensive review and rapid passage and/or re-working where necessary.
... materials deleted
FIGURE 6a: Graph showing the 23 Electricity Generating Plants in Nigeria and their Capacities in November 2013 and November 2014
Figure 7a: Geographical Disposition of the Principal Power Stations in Nigeria
FIGURE 9a: Nigeria's Major On-Shore Gas Pipeline Network
UNQUOTE
If we over-depend on gas for power, then we must over-supply gas, and over-protect the pipelines. But over-dependence on anything is never good, so we must over-diversify to other resources as quickly as possible: coal, hydro, sun, etc., even nuclear.
This is not rocket science, but it will not happen over-night - and we must start right away. And Fashola and the PMB administration have.And there you have it.Bolaji AlukoOn Mon, Jun 13, 2016 at 2:17 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:Raji, Imperial:A lot of the criticism of Fashola is all-mouth-and-little-reasoning, and just another attempt to bash the PMB administration that is strivingagainst time to make substantial changes in various sectors at the same time. Put them in charge, and they won't do nada....To generate electricity, there are only few primary sources of energy:1 - Oil and Gas..........Mainly in the Niger-Delta2 - Coal.....................In the Enugu-Kogi axis3 - Water (Hydro).......In certain Northern axes ............................................I.4 - Sun (solar)...........Everywhere in Nigeria................................................I--------------renewables5 - Wind....................In Highlands and Ocean............................................I6 - Biomass..............Almost everywhere there is biomass waste.................I7 - Nuclear................Controversial, but should not be eliminated from considerationIn addition to regional mal-distributions, there are also some technological points to note:**The cleanest/energy-efficient method is nuclear - but let us skip that for now**For places with access to oil and gas like Nigeria, most viable method, but liquid/gas need mining and transportation - but suppose the sources/pipelines are bombed? Sabotage?**We used to depend on coal - but it requires harder work, and with sentiments of "dirty" energy, interest declined. We have to return to it - but that takes time.**Hydro too is good - but it is not country-wide, and will not be enough for the entire country.** Solar is everywhere - and we should NOW develop our Electricity energy policy around Solar, in addition to wind - but that takes timeAll in all, Fashola gets the need to change the Energy Mix of Nigeria, and has articulated it several times during his tenure so far. But it will not happen overnight....Patience is the key....Bolaji AlukoOn Mon, Jun 13, 2016 at 1:39 AM, 'Tajudeen' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:Babe Imperial,I belief in the current administration of Nigeria and as every good citizen should, have my eye on them to make sure that they are doing what they promised us.I belief that they will lay a good foundation for future administration to build upon.If they care about their reputation, which I belief that they do, they will continue to work harder at fixing the mess.Sealing the ghost workers leak (and still looking) is a step in the right direction. Cleaning the pollution in the Niger is another step in the right direction. Bringing state governor to the table and helping them understand and accept that their wasteful ways need to be checked, is yet another step in the right direction. They have taken other steps in the right direction and that is why I belief that they are working behind the scenes to bring about a long lasting and sustainable solution to our power wahala.Thanks,Tajudeen Raji
Sent from my iPhone
On Jun 12, 2016, at 7:05 PM, Imperial imperial_ltd@yahoo.com [YanArewa] <YanArewa@yahoogroups.com> wrote:Alagba Tajudeen,The president and many non- partisan minds are well aware of the current problem facing the energy sector .Majority of the power stations in Nigeria use gas except the ones basedin the northern part of the country which use hydro power to generate energy .When over 3000 MW Mambila power project in Taraba state is competed in a few years time, our dependence on the gas fired power station would reduce .Sent from my iPadBaba Imperial;I am not blaming Fashola - not yet.He is the minister in charge of power, all obstacles/challenges hindering his plans, are his to tackle and resolve. Even if it means calling mr. President for assistance in getting things moving.Thanks,Tajudeen Raji
Sent from my iPhone
On Jun 12, 2016, at 6:22 PM, Imperial imperial_ltd@yahoo.com [YanArewa] <YanArewa@yahoogroups.com> wrote:Alagba Raji,There isn't enough supply of gas to many power stations . The activities of the Avenger terrorists etc disrupted the supply so let's stop blaming Fashola .
Sent from my iPadDan,Well, with perpetual complain from the citizens and, with the history of Fashola's style of communicating with the people, we probably shouldhear from him soon - telling us what is going on and why things seem to be getting worse instead of better. And what is he/his team doing about it.What's fair is fair - the task of solving our power problem is not going happen in a year. Plans have to be implemented, that takes time.Thanks,Tajudeen Raji
Sent from my iPhoneRaji,You sounded like you know what Fashola has done or is doing to have the light bulbs on. Can you share it with us or do you want to do like Fashola- keep us in the dark? .What about Fashola saying why it is taking long to have the switches working. It cannot be the MEND and DV nuisance that just came.Dan
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