--Alagba Kadiri
Let me reply at once to two posts of yours: your letter to ex- President Obasanjo and this particular post, Toyin Adepoju being the link.
I could not find the part in the actual newspaper interview where Toyin Adepoju got the last part of his excerpt regarding the US putting the Fulani on trial where nothing is done at home to bring them to justice. I agree with you that if a president succumbs to blackmail to reward a blackmailer that does not mean another President is bound to honour that inglorious precedent. I could see Professor Oyebode boring us with the fact of Vice President Osinbajo being his former student and asking him to leave Buhari's government pointing in that direction. He (Oyebode, like Farooq Kperogi) could not stomach the idea of Buhari being helped to achieve power and then distancing himself from them.
Now to ex President Obasanjo, I agree with most of your criticism of him having been disillusioned, as I formally indicated on the forum, by hi attempt at self-succession Abacha style even within a civilian dispensation thereby bastardising the Nigerian Constitution. But Obasanjo's criticism of both Goodluck Johnathan and Muhammadu Buhari seems to stem from an oversight by both Presidents: passifyind and rewarding blackmail bordering on terrorism.
When Toyin Adepoju railed against Buhari rewarding ' Miyetti Allah terrorism enablers' with N100 billion payoff he conveniently forgot that it was his defended kinsman President Goodluck Johnathan who sett the bad precedent which Miyetti Allah latched on to when he paid off the terrorist organisation MEND a recourse that sent President Obasanjo bristling with anger at such odious precedent when he acvused Johnathan of acting as if he was President only over his own people instead of President of the whole country.
Obasanjo you well know has more political friends up North than his home base. He was therefore acting as the mouth piece of his northern constituency who promptly removed Johnathan at the polls for this ' original sin'
You can then imagine his consternation at Buhari repeating the same offence for which Johnathan was 'excommunicated,'
OAA
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Subject: Sv: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Professor Oyebode apologizes forBuhari Vote
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If Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju had filtered away my post from his email inbox, he would not have seen my request to Professor Moses Ebe Ochonu about his excerpt from Professor Oyebode's interview with unspecified source, making it look fake. Before commenting on the said interview, let me narrate why I read not only the opinions I agree with but those that I disagree with. I once had a Caucasian friend as a visitor and during our discussion on family affairs he asked me if I was a Communist. Since, to me, the question was off the track, I enquired from him why he asked if I was a Communist? He responded by pointing at my volumes of Lenin's collected selected works in one of my bookshelves. Replying, I demonstratively pointed to the volumes of New Cambridge Modern History, Will Durant's History of Civilisation, Winstons Churchill's History of the Second World War and various titles authored by Henry Kissinger on the other shelves. Feeling that my response was inadequate, I pulled out a copy of Quran and a Bible from one of the book shelves to illustrate that it is not what I read that determines my belief. I read to have an independent judgment of mine on issues. When I showed him where Henry Kissinger was quoting copiously from Max and Lenin in one of his book even though he was not a Communist, and he remained speechless. I will always read, not only those whose opinions agree with mine but against mine. Moreover, it is an ineffective way to punish anyone whose opinion one does not share by filtering a person from ones email inbox.
Now let's go through the Punch interview with Professor Akin Oyebode. When the interviewer drew the attention of Professor Emeritus, Akin Oyebode, to the fact that Buhari had referred to killer herders in Nigeria as ECOWA's herdsmen, he responded partly thus, "For me, Buhari wants to be clever by half by talking of invaders, whereas he's just shopping for an excuse to justify the tyranny of his kinsmen who want to impose themselves on the Country. The fact which one does not need to be a professor to know is that Buhari could not have been president of Nigeria if based on Fulani votes alone because the Fulani are minority ethnic group in Nigeria. Considering, the composition of the National Assembly and the Nigerian Armed Forces, Fulani are in absolute minority. The question then is, what magic wand would the Fulani deploy to impose themselves on Nigeria?
Professor Emeritus, Akin Oyebode claimed that Fulani are not Nigerians and attributed their origin to Futta Jallon, Senegal and Mali. How long back in history was Fulani migration into Nigeria, he failed to tell the interviewer. As a result of his aversion for Fulani people, Oyebode said he didn't vote in the last election because the choice was between two Fulani, Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar. Yet, there were 71 other presidential candidates of with over 90% non-Fulani identity. Oyebode is wishing for united Africa by 2063. Therefore, he is praying and hoping that a day would come when the boundaries (in Africa) would be irrelevant because as Africans our destinies are intertwined. He stated further that 'as a pan-Africanists, I'm perfectly in favour of opening up African countries to other Africans and I'm against xenophobia like you find in South Africa.' If one may ask Professor Oyebode, are Fulani not Africans whose destinies are intertwined with other Africans and especially with Nigerians? Towards the end of the interview, Professor Emeritus, Akin Oyebode expressed his regret for voting for Buhari in 2015. That aspect of the interview was very exciting to Professor Ochonu who extracted and posted it without comment and ethnic warriors had a field day. Due to my enquiry, he got the opportunity to debunk ethnicity associated with his excerpt from Oyebode's interview. Professor Ochonu's objection to the quoted passage is why professor Oyebode did not make his views on Buhari known before the 2019 election. But professor Akin Oyebode is only seeking the attention of Buhari for his own personal benefit as he once did with Jonathan. Hence, at the end of the interview he said, ".... and that is why I respect Jonathan. As hard as I was on him, he nominated me to the Council of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs." After his nomination, an easy guess for the discerning minds should be that the professor emeritus, Akin Oyebode, became soft on Jonathan.
Akin Oyebode does not believe that the population of Nigeria is up to 200 million because according to him the Nigerian Economy cannot sustain that population which he guessed should be 100 million. But national census was conducted in 2006 when Obasanjo was the President and the name of the Chairman of National Population Commission was Sumaila Makama. On Friday, 29 December 2006, Chief Makama presented the breakdown of 2006 Nigeria's population census as follows : Males 71,709,859; Females - 68,293,683 and total population as 140,003,542. The National Council of State at its meeting, at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, chaired by President Olusegun Obasanjo, adopted the census figures presented by the NPC. Normally, a new head count of Nigerians should have taken place in 2016, but Buhari inherited looted treasury in 2015 which was worsened by international economic recession and dwindling income from crude oil export. If the Emeritus Professor, has another means of estimating the population of Nigeria, he should share it with Nigerians so that we can know that the 2006 population census that cost millions of dollars to produce was a bluff. If the real population of Nigeria is in doubt, what do we know about the population of Fulani in Nigeria. Their population must be greater than all other ethnic groups in Nigeria in order to be able to perpetrate all the crimes that are being attributed to them. Practically, it is impossible to kidnap, rape and rob in the company of cows unless one has become a Herdsman Emeritus. And Nigeria should be harbouring millions of Herdsmen Emeritus in order that only them can be responsible for all the crimes in villages, towns and cities of Nigeria that are being attributed to them. The latest kidnappings attributed to Herdsmen Emeritus was the reported abduction of five pastors of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) at Benin Shagamu Expressway, on Thursday, 1 August 2019. On Friday, 2 August 2019, one of the captives, deaconess Chidinma Ibelegbu claimed to have escaped from her abductors. How? She told the media, "I prayed to God to make them fall asleep, and they fell asleep and continued to sleep until I began to make my way out of the bush. I was asking God for direction to the road." If the abductors were asleep, why did the four others not follow the deaconess? On Saturday, 3 August 2019, Police Public Relations Officer, Abimbola Oyeyemi, announced the rescue of the four others whose name were given as, Chidozie Eluwa, Chiemela Iroha, Okoro Ohowukwe and Ndubisi Owuabueze. According to online PM News Nigeria, none of the four was a pastor or belonged to RCCG. So the intended story of Muslim herdsmen abducting Christians for ransom fell flat. What remains of the whole story is that the kidnappers, although not captured, were Fulani Herdsmen Emeritus since they were not in company of cows and no one saw cattle at the scene of the kidnapping.In Oyo State on 1 August 2019, police arrested suspected arms dealers with 10,000 live ammunitions and on 4 August 2019, in Anambra State, notorious armed robbery gang terrorising Anambra people were arrested. Before the arrests in Oyo and Anambra States, all crimes committed there were blamed on Emeritus Fulani Herdsmen.
--
Från: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> för Moses Ebe Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Skickat: den 1 augusti 2019 22:50
Till: USAAfricaDialogue <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Ämne: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Professor Oyebode apologizes for Buhari VoteI set my email to filter out all posts by Salimonu Kadiri, so I don't see his posts unless someone else reposts them or responds to them in a thread to which I'm contributing. In this case, I just saw Toyin Adepoju's reposting of his demand for a link. Here is the link to the extensive interview where the retired professor made the mea culpa for his 2015 vote for Buhari.
I am not sure it's entirely fair to blame Oyebode for Buhari happening to Nigeria. I do not know his motive for voting for Buhari in 2015. As I indicated in an earlier writeup, Buhari was propelled to power in 2015 by a mendacious ethnic coalition. But not all Yorubas supported that ethnic agenda. Some vehemently stood against it. And not all Yoruba who supported Jonathan in 2015 were motivated by the ethnic consensus either. I do feel therefore that we should make a distinction between the individual choices of Yoruba elites and commoners and the broader ethnic calculus that dominated and determined the electoral outcome in the Southwest and even more crucially birthed the APC and the North + West coalition. For me, those who deserve commendation are Northerners and Yoruba people who bucked the dominant political consensuses of their regions in 2015, especially those of them who were not embedded in or beneficiaries of Jonathan's administration. They had courage and conviction.
Even if some Yoruba intellectuals bought into the ethnic agenda in 2015, if they do a mea culpa, and fess up to their participation, you can reason with them. At least, they are not incorrigible ethnic jingoists and can moderate their ethnic political loyalty when confronted with the tragic consequence of their ethnic politics.
My only quibble with Professor Oyebode is the lateness of his mea culpa. If as he said in the interview, he did not think that Buhari deserved a second term, why did he not say that before the election of this year? Why conveniently wait until the election is over and Buhari is sworn in for a second term before going public with your vote of no confidence in Buhari, your damning verdict on Buhari's incompetence and destructive parochialism?
On Thu, Aug 1, 2019 at 3:18 AM Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com> wrote:
Oyebode 2018 interview
'On whether the killings were politically motivated, Oyebode said the Miyetti Allah had confessed and admitted that because some cows were rustled, that was the reasons for their action, saying that their response was most unfortunate, adding that "I believe that the leaders of the Miyetti ALLAH should be rounded up by now and tried as terrorist and ethnic cleansing and even genocide."
"Now that the SERAP has taken the matter to the US council, I am scandalised that Nigeria could be brought before an international court. More so, Buhari is Fulani. His mother is a Kanuri from Borno State. It appears he is treating his fellow brothers with kid-gloves. The fact that he is a Fulani doesn't mean he cannot stand for justice. People will obey him and respect him more if he cracks and descend heavily on the self confessed murderers.
"I don't know any country where self murderers are giving pat on the back. It isn't done anywhere. If you kill someone and admitted doing so, such person should face the music. In other climes, if one admitted to have killed someone, he faces the music.
"When they killed in Benue, that embolden them. They went to Plateau, but when the crisis in Ife between Yoruba and Hausa occurred, they rounded up the Ife people, including the monarch, took them to Abuja, we don't know how many were arrested. Ife is not an Hausa city, but these Hausas themselves, invented Sabo, Sango in all the areas they are living in Yorubaland. Nigerians is treating people unequally. It is not fit and proper for some people to be declared higher than the law," he said.'
On Thu, 1 Aug 2019 at 07:46, Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com> wrote:
Okey.
Thanks.
I've read it.
So, what should we do?
How do we avert the looming catastrophe?
toyin
On Thu, 1 Aug 2019 at 02:28, Okey Iheduru <okeyiheduru@gmail.com> wrote:
Toyin:
I've copied and pasted below relevant excerpts from a 2012 draft report that I was involved in drafting for the Office of the National Security Adviser, Abuja. Hopefully, it provides sufficient background to enable you pursue the scenario reports and war games written/engaged in by US security and intelligence agencies between 2008 and 2015. See particularly
Regards,Okey+++++++++++++++++++++++
5. These repeated flare-ups and the widening of fault lines they have equally exposed have been of concern to many Nigerian and non-Nigerian academic and policy analysts. Using the tools of their profession, many of these analysts have conducted scenario studies that stress the urgency of addressing these fault lines and the rising insecurity they generate. Some of these studies, particularly those conducted by scholars and analysts from the United States of America (US), have been predicting the eventual failure of the Nigerian state since the mid-1990s. The most apocalyptic of these US-based scenarios was conducted in 2008 by a team of four Air force officer-engineers at the Air University (AU), Alabama, US entitled Failed State 2030: Nigeria- a Case Study. They used Nigeria to represent its fourth scenario of a failed state in a vital area of US interest as part of a five-part Blue Horizon scenario study. Failed State 2030: Nigeria-a Case Study was later published in 2011. Like other studies by US security and intelligence agencies, this Blue Horizon study reinforced the possibility of Nigeria's failure by 2030 due to the fragilities of a "failed state" deriving from the country's unresolved socio-cultural, political and economic challenges.
6. In February 2012, the Office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) to the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria directed the Commandant, National Defence College, Abuja, R/Admiral ... through the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) to make a comprehensive review of the Failed State 2030: Nigeria- a Case Study and offer a counter-strategy on the issues raised in the report. Consequently, in March 2012, the Commandant, NDC duly constituted a committee of NDC directing staff and research faculty composed of Air Cdre ... (Chairman), Prof OC Iheduru (Member), Dr ... (Member) and ... (esq) (Secretary), and mandated them to make a comprehensive review of the publication and offer a counter-strategy on the claims contained in it.
AIM
7. The aim of this paper therefore, is to appraise the Failed State 2030: Nigeria as a Case Study report with a view to proffering appropriate response strategies to the central challenges identified in this and other similar scenario reports about the future of Nigeria.
....
18. Given the concerns and the effect a failed or failing Nigeria would have on its interests, various arms of the United States military and security establishments have conducted series of future scenario studies and war games since the mid-1990s in preparation for Nigeria's possible implosion. Most of the scenario projections have come out of the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC). Its most audacious scenario study was a 2005 report suggesting that Nigeria risked disintegration by 2015. The latest scenario study about a possible collapse of Nigeria was conducted by four air force colonels at the US Air University in 2008. Published years later in February 2011, the Failed State 2030: Nigeria—a Case Study contends that Nigeria exhibits extraordinarily complex demographics, culture of corruption, and failing national infrastructure. This is worsened by the country's long history of dangerously destabilizing religious and ethnic violence and potentials for future military coups d'état. It concludes that if urgent steps were not taken to address these danger signals, Nigeria risked collapse in 2030. More importantly, the authors explored the likely technological response of the US air Force to this apocalyptic scenario.
CONTEXTUALISING AMERICAN "OBSESSION" WITH A FAILING NIGERIA
19. Although the 2011 Air University occasional paper is a student project, many Nigerians are understandably concerned about what may seem like "American obsession" with the possibility of a failed Nigeria. In February 2012, the U. S. ambassador to Nigeria, Terrence McCulley had to embark on an orchestrated campaign to deny media reports and popular concerns among many Nigerians that the U.S. government, rather than U.S.-based researchers and analysts, was the author of these recurring reports of imminent collapse of their country.[i] Whether or not these reports reflect official US government positions, Americans are interested in Nigeria's future for several reasons. Firstly, Nigeria's geo-strategic importance to US energy security has been consistently emphasized by US policy and strategic thinkers: it is estimated that Nigeria and the entire GoG would provide up to 25 per cent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030. Secondly, Nigeria's large and growing population would present a critical challenge to global, and indeed, US economy if it fails. Nigeria's population which has grown at an average rate of 2 per cent since 2008 is projected to reach over 225 million by 2030. Thirdly, the US expects Nigeria to play a critical role in the development and stability of other African nations, given its strategic position in Africa.
20. In line with these concerns, therefore, US policy and strategic planners have consistently conducted studies and simulated scenarios about Nigeria's possible failure, with a view to avoiding it or recommending ways that the US would respond and cope with its consequences. The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) has played a lead role in these scenario studies. Its 2010 scenario study forecast that Nigeria will not have the potential to play the role of a leader in West Africa because its economic mismanagement, corruption, and political instability will not be resolved over the next 15 years. Similarly, an NIC-sponsored one-day conference of US experts on Africa in January 2005 participants predicted that Nigeria would fail by 2015, if some of its fault lines were not properly managed and controlled.
21. The conference concluded that a failed Nigerian state could drag down a large part of the West African region. Clearly, if millions of people were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years if ever, and not without massive international assistance. The 2005 projections on Nigeria elicited so much apprehension that the Olusegun Obasanjo administration promptly arrested the leaders of several militant groups in the country, amongst which were the leaders of 'Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra' (MASSOB), the 'Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force' (NDPVF), Asari Dokubo and Gani Adams of the O'odua People's Congress (OPC).
22. The year 2008, however, marked a watershed in United States' interest in the future of Nigeria. This is evidenced by a proliferation of simulation studies and exercises on Nigeria's likely implosion by several US security and intelligence outfits in that year. A National Intelligence Council report entitled "Democratization in Africa: What Progress Towards Institutionalization", published in February 2008, posited that despite the return to democracy in 1999, ethnic and religious conflicts had persisted with an estimated 14,000 deaths in political and communal clashes, with much of the violence taking resource, ethnic and religious tones. This conclusion may have formed the basis for a later report by the same agency in November 2008, where it further asserted that the encroaching desertification in the north as well as the religious clashes between Muslims and Christians, among other factors, point to a conceivable outbreak of another Biafra-like civil war, only this time along North-South lines. The report entitled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" contended further that unless employment conditions change dramatically, Nigeria will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure. It therefore, warned that Nigeria's eventual failure may require military intervention by outside powers to stabilize energy flows and guarantee security in the region, thus reinforcing the need for US preparedness.
23. It was also in 2008, that the study under review was commissioned. The Failed State 2030: Nigeria-a Case Study shows that the various trends pointing to Nigeria's possible failure could be used to develop strategies or war games to help the US avoid or test potential responses to the calamity of failed states. By design or coincidence, the U. S. military in May 2008, conducted a war games called Unified Quest 2008 to ascertain how its military might respond to a war in parts of Africa, including Nigeria. Among other scenarios, the war game envisioned the deployment of 20,000 US troops to maintain security in the Niger Delta oil fields within a dissolved anarchic Nigeria. The war game, however, ended without U.S. military intervention because one of the rival factions in the Nigerian army executed a successful coup and formed a government that sought stability in the country, thereby guaranteeing the free flow of natural resources from Africa to the global market which is one of the guiding principles of AFRICOM.[ii]
24. A joint report authored by the NIC and South Africa- based Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in 2010 reinforced the same sentiments expressed in the Failed State 2030 monograph. While noting the significant leadership potential that Nigeria holds in the stability and development of Africa, the report contended that internal conflict or collapse of a populous Nigeria would likely overwhelm international conflict management efforts, given the difficult challenges that smaller countries, such as Sudan or Somalia, have so far posed to the international community.
25. Finally, the 2012 annual report by the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) recommended that Nigeria should be designated as a "Country of Particular Concern" (CPC). The USCIRF claims to be "an independent, bipartisan U. S. Federal Government commission" with principal responsibilities to review the facts and circumstances of violations of religious freedom internationally and make policy recommendations to the President, the Secretary of State and Congress. However, its commissioners are appointed by the US President and the leadership of both political parties in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The commission premised it recommendation on the fact that over 14,000 Nigerians had been killed in religiously-related violence between Muslims and Christians since 1999. Significantly, the USCIRF also noted that "the government of Nigeria continues to fail to prevent and contain acts of religiously-related violence, prevent reprisal attacks, or bring those responsible for such violence to justice." Other countries recommended for CPC status in 2012 were Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Vietnam, while countries on its watch-list include Afghanistan, Belarus, Cuba, India, Indonesia, Laos, Russia, Somalia and Venezuela. Nigeria which had been on USCIRF's watch-list since 2002, was first recommended for CPC status in 2009.[iii]
26. These military and security reports have been complemented by a number of recent books that have predicted the collapse of the Nigerian state, namely Karl Maier, This House Has Fallen (2002), Robert Calderis, The Trouble with Africa (2007), and Roy Cullen, The Poverty of Corrupt Nations (2008).[iv] Most of these books owe their apocalyptic trade mark to the lurid portrayal of state failure in Africa in Robert Kaplan's article in the Atlantic Monthly in 1994 which warned that a "coming anarchy" from Africa would engulf much of the post-Cold war world. That article became required reading in the Clinton White House that year.[v] James Campbell, the former US ambassador to Nigeria and the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, capped these dire predictions with his Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink in 2010. Campbell's grand thesis is that whereas Nigeria had been resilient in surviving a civil war, the confluence of intensified ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt, the insurrection in the Delta, and the paralysis of the Presidency at the time of the 2011 elections would be the defining moments of Nigeria's state failure.[vi]
HIGHLIGHTS OF FAILED STATE 2030 NIGERIA—A CASE STUDY
27. The contexts of the perceived U. S. "obsession" with a failing Nigeria identified in the preceding section can be further enriched with a highlight of the main findings of the Failed State 2030 Nigeria—a Case Study. As noted earlier, the report is a 2008 study authored by four air force colonels at the Air University Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama USA. The "failed-state" scenario painted in the study is one of four that comprised the Blue Horizons study of a resurgent Russia, a peer China, a successful jihadist insurgency against a friendly state in the Middle East, and a failed state in a vital area of US interest conducted by the university in 2008.
28. Using Nigeria as a case study for its fourth scenario, the report (published in February 2011 as Occasional Paper 167), describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should possess to respond to a failed state, "especially one of vital interest to the US and at the cusp of a civil war."[vii] Nigeria was chosen because of its vast oil wealth which could be up to 25 percent of US light, sweet crude oil imports by 2030. In addition, Nigeria's large population, strategic position in Africa, and the assumption that its failure would significantly affect the US and the global economy, were part of the rationale for the study.
29. The central question which the monograph sought to answer was, "Are there technologies and capabilities the US Air Force could invest in now to prepare itself to respond in 2030 to the challenges and surprises a failed state poses to the United States and the world?"[viii] To address these questions, Chapter 2 of the book provides an unusually brief definition of "state failure" using omnibus indicators that would send sparks flying among serious scholars. The brief outline of the history of Nigeria through the study year 2008 presented in this chapter is probably the best one could expect from military engineers who had never studied nor engaged Nigeria, except through a crash course of ad hoc lectures and series of interviews of some Nigerian military and civilian personnel as part of the methodology for their study. Nonetheless, it provides a context for their understanding of the evolution of the Nigerian state that helped them identify key vectors that they contend could cause the Nigerian state to implode in 2030.
30. In Chapter 3 they argue that while Nigeria's rich social and cultural makeup offers hope for a successful future for Nigeria, deep fissures within its "extraordinarily complex demographic and cultural makeup could become the fault lines that shatter the nation." Similarly, Chapter 4, begins on a cautious note of hope for Nigeria's current and future political situation, but correctly reminds that this hope is bounded by the reality that institutional government corruption and a combination of religious and cultural factionalism is endemic and pervasive. If the poor quality of Nigeria's governance is left unchecked, these can ultimately corrode the social contract between the government and the people and bring about the failure of the Nigerian state, the book contends.
31. Chapter 5 takes on the complexities of Nigeria's "one commodity" petroleum economy. It notes that while the price of oil will likely continue to rise and fall and although Nigerian government budgets use a lower oil price as a basis for planning, "Nigeria's oligarchs" reap 80 percent of the oil profits. Three economic scenarios—The Nightmare Continues, The Dream Is Realized, and The Dream Is Derailed—are explored, with the authors noting that a failure by the government to rein in corruption could derail Nigeria's economy and bring about failure of the state. In chapter 6, the book addresses Nigeria's military capabilities and technology while examining the role of Nigeria's military in politics and in preserving this ethnically complex nation. It notes that Nigeria's military has had a relatively consistent constitutional role because it has overthrown five elected governments, even as the support it receives from the government and the people is inconsistent. A lack of support for the military or a highly fragmented Nigerian military in 2030 during a time of national crisis could also bring down Nigeria.
32. Chapter 7 is actually the "meat" of the publication (35 pages in all, compared to an average of 10 pages in other chapters) in that it is here that the authors develop a sequence of events connecting the Nigeria of today to one potential future outcome. It paints a picture of what "day-to-day" Nigeria may look like in 2030 and presents a plausible scenario for a systemic collapse of governance and Nigeria's failure under the weight of multiple cross-cutting social and cultural issues, infrastructure, the economy, the government, and the influence of outside elements. In their own words:
By 2030 the social contract between the weakened federal government and the Nigerian people is effectively broken. An attempt to restore confidence through a national election sweeps the electorally dominant Islamic political structure into power. Buoyed by its electoral success, the new government threatens to ruin family criminal enterprises and confiscate the wealth of the business oligarchs. Its ultimate end state is to rebrand Nigeria as an Islamic republic. The culmination of these negative trends and political actions sparks a violent reaction from the non-Islamic population, the criminal family enterprises, and the oligarchs. In this case, the state fails.[ix]
33. Although the authors claim that Nigeria is on the cusp of a civil war, they also acknowledge that Nigeria becoming a failed state is not a foregone conclusion. If Nigeria fails however, it would be akin to a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor, it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces, a threat too great to ignore. The attendant humanitarian crisis unfolding in the wake of failure and the hard work and cost to repair the damage could take two generations to make Nigeria viable again. A recent study by Oxford University economist Paul Collier and his colleague Lisa Chauvet contends that the total cost of a single country falling into the "fragile state" category, for itself and its neighbours, may reach US$85 billion. This is a gargantuan sum equivalent to 70 per cent of worldwide official development assistance from international donors in 2009.[x] More alarming, according to the authors of Failed State 2030, is the threat that failure poses to the livelihood, security, and general way of life of a projected quarter billion Nigerians by 2030, the effect of which could quickly spread and cause a humanitarian disaster of previously unimagined proportions in the region.
34. What then would the US do, and what are some of the desired key capabilities and technologies the US Air Force could use to respond to this scenario in 2030? Chapter 8 attempts to answer these questions, even as the authors contend that the required set of capabilities would apply to any failed state on the brink of civil war. These capabilities are important to future peace operations, peacekeeping, peace enforcement, peacemaking, peace building and have applicability that range far beyond the scenario painted here. Peace enforcement operations in a failed-state scenario in 2030 will require capabilities to anticipate impending threats, understand the operating environment and capabilities of the belligerents, engage with the appropriate force, survive in a highly stressed environment with a small operational and support footprint, rapidly deploy response forces and supplies to the operating area, and quickly replenish materiel and people in order to sustain forces.
35. Failed State 2030 Nigeria—a Case Study concludes that despite its best efforts, Nigeria has a long-term struggle ahead to remain a viable state, much less a top-20 economy. While its vast sweet-crude-oil wealth potentially provides Nigeria with great power and influence, the government's history of rampant corruption and inability and unwillingness to invest in its human resources, industrial infrastructure and the people's welfare could doom it to failure. The US cannot ignore such a failure because Nigeria will likely account for over 25 percent of US oil imports by 2030, even as other large economies depend on an uninterrupted flow of oil from Nigeria.
[i] See Seyi Gesinde, Abiodun Awolaja and Laolu Afolabi, "US Didn't Predict Nigeria's Break Up by 2015 –Ambassador," Tribune, 2 February 2012; http://www.saturday.tribune.com.ng/index.php/news/35397-us-didnt-predict-nigerias-break-up-by-2015-ambassador; accessed 1 April 2012, among numerous newspaper headlines on this issue.
[ii] See Paul Ohia. US Army Prepares for Nigeria's Possible Break-Up. ThisDay, 17 August 2009; http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=151826; accessed 17August 2009; and Jacob Kubeka. US Army Prepares for Nigeria's Possible Break-Up. National Accord (Abuja), 4 January 2012; http://www.nationalaccordnewspaper.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4266:us-army-prepares-for-nigerias-possible-break-up-&catid=35:national-news&Itemid=63; accessed 4 January 2012.
[iii] Tokunbo Adedoja, "Report Wants Nigeria Tagged Country of Particular Concern," ThisDay, 22 Mar 2012.
[iv] See Karl Maier. This House Has Fallen: Nigeria in Crisis. New York: Basic Books, 2002; Robert Calderis. The Trouble with Africa: Why Foreign Aid Isn't Working. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007; and Roy Cullen. The Poverty of Corrupt Nations. Toronto: Blue Butterfly Books, 2008.
[v] Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy," op cit.
[vi] John Campbell, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink. New York: Rowman & Littlefield, for Council on Foreign Relations, 2010, p. 131.
[vii] Failed State 2030, p vii.
[viii] Op cit., p. 4.
[ix] Op. cit., p. 65.
[x] Quoted in Stewart Patrick, Weak Links: Fragile States, Global Threats and International Security. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 55.
On Wed, Jul 31, 2019 at 10:21 AM Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin.adepoju@gmail.com> wrote:
Various ethnicities but mainly the North and the SW supported Buhari.
People had various reasons, some ethnic, some truly nationalistic.
Can you direct me to where I can get info on this- ', American intelligence agencies predicted EVERYTHING that is currently happening--and that WILL HAPPEN-back in 2011, but Nigerians could care less.'
thanks
Toyin
On Wed, 31 Jul 2019 at 09:56, Okey Iheduru <okeyiheduru@gmail.com> wrote:
Too late, fellows. Prof. Oyebode and all others now shedding crocodile tears and doing last-minute "mea culpa" were warned but hatred and vain hope of an imminent ethnic harvest blinded them all. The PMB effect will be with Nigeria over the next 50 years, if the country survives its current race to the precipice. By the way, American intelligence agencies predicted EVERYTHING that is currently happening--and that WILL HAPPEN-back in 2011, but Nigerians could care less. #BringBackCluless?
On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 11:52 pm Moses Ochonu, <meochonu@gmail.com> wrote:
.
"I voted for him in 2015; I took the trouble to join the queue and vote for him. I thought anything but Jonathan. Jonathan was clueless but now we got a worse person than Jonathan, so I didn't believe he deserved a second term. Some people taunted me for supporting him but I told them I was extremely sorry. ....
This man can't move Nigeria anywhere; the country is collapsing under him. It's the young people I feel sorry for"
—-Professor Akin Oyebode, emeritus professor of constitutional and international law, university of Lagos.
Sent from my iPhone
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