Saturday, January 4, 2020

USA Africa Dialogue Series - USA and Iran: As everyone knows, things will get worse before they get better, God Willing...


Condolences to the families of all those that have been assassinated.


We are all men and mortal, nothing more. What greater delusion than to think of oneself as an incarnation of "God" the King of the universe/ multiverse?

At this stage, we hear Brer Trump saying that he's not looking for "regime change "over there in Iran. Assuming that he's telling the transparent truth, further down the line, he may still change his mind, and seek a regime change that would be more Donald Trump-friendly. Soleimani has been replaced but it's still an open question: Who will eventually replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - and will that mean a change in Iran's Islamic policies in Iran and in the region? Now more than ever the Shia pray that Imam Mahdi (alaihi salaam) will appear.

 A cursory look at the world map shows how far, far away the USA is from the Islamic Republic of Iran, a distance that leaves the Iranians and the Iraqis pondering the question, what is Uncle Sam doing there, so far away from home?

About the assassinations,

Sad: Supreme leader of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad…

Glad: John Bolton, understandably, Netanyahu and if you were Netanyahu you would be glad too because Soleimani had been making many incendiary statements, such as that he would " flatten Tel Aviv" if attacked…

Nervous: the Saudis, Bernie Sanders, Sleepy Joe Biden, really sleepy and now waxing prophetic when he declares softly, "We could be on the brink of a major conflict in the Middle East!"

Indeed, "we could". I thought that the main slogan of the Obama campaign was, "Yes we can!" Anyway, thanks for the prophecy, Sleepy Joe, thanks for telling us even if everybody knows this already. We will have to wait and see if you are right this time. And please take note that Trump is now firmly centre stage, is leading as a very deceive commander-in-chief and is centre stage not about fake news,  the latest witch-hunt and the impeachment hoax but about taking some very deceive steps, step by step, stage one, step one, throwing down the gauntlet with a view to straightening things out in the Middle East, before the US loses more ground and more influence in the region.

And nota bene: Russia is not too happy about all this.

(A  few days ago,  Russia, China and Iran held  joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman – not in the Persian Gulf  - the dread Persian Gulf and the dreaded closing of the Straits of Hormuz to oil traffic in the eventuality of a real escalation – and ( of course) there's going to be a real escalation ( oil-producing countries that will not be affected  should be rejoicing secretly  that the price of their oil will sky-rocket if the worst happens )

For some of us, the main question now is not how, apart from fast-forwarding, quickly upgrading their uranium enrichment to nuclear weapons " Yes we can" capacity for their warheads,  and apart  from some more ritual after-prayer choirs chanting " Death to America and Death to Israel", but, in very practical terms, how is Iran going to respond to this latest  "American transgression", because as a proud and prudent people they are sure going to respond. They may have already started a few wildfires in California. (There are some 60,000 Iranian Jews in California and 25, 000 in Iran). Or the Shia militias/ revolutionary guards/ supporters  may have already started some bushfires around the pentagon, for respond they will, but  as a prudent people, Iran is unlikely to attack Israel, for the simple reason that Iran would not like to be attacked in return, by a super-ferocious Israel who could jam their signals overnight…

More importantly, the question is what next  should we expect Trump to do in the interests of safeguarding the lives and interests of the United States and allies and of course in the interests of winning the November 2020 Presidential elections, since as we all know, it's unlikely that the American people – or indeed the Military Industrial complex wants to change horses in midstream. Moreover, isn't it about time that some peace and tranquillity is eventually restored to all of the Middle East including all spheres of influence in Iraq, Israel and the Palestinians, the issues bedevilling the Kurds, Assad, Hezbollah (who are on the brink of getting a Hezbollah-friendly Prime Minister in Lebanon and already have an awesome stockpile of missiles , all aimed at annihilating Israel? The alternative to peace and tranquillity - especially for those with a martyrdom complex or a suicide-bomber mentality is that they blow the whole place up – that the whole of the Middle East goes up in smoke, as an intensification of Joe Biden's prophecy.

There is still some speculation as to exactly what kind of precision hypersonic missile was used to terminate Iran's greatest general at that Baghdad airport. With that kind of target precision who can be safe either in peacetime or in an all-out war situation? Who can be safe except for those taking cover in some special, impenetrable, bomb-proof bunkers located deep in the bowels of the earth? And yet at the very end, Saddam who was reputed to have had such a bunker, and Gaddafi too, were on the run as fugitives in their own countries and were finally apprehended , one, in a hole in the ground, the other trapped in a remote tunnel…

One wonders how much worse would things have been if it was (God forbid) Supreme leader Ali Khamenei himself and his convoy that had been thus lethally hit at the Baghdad Airport, whilst on a state visit to have a tête-à-tête with his counterpart, the President of Iraq. We are to suppose that the same rationale could have been given for (God forbid) the Supreme Leader's assassination in sovereign Iraqi territory given that Major-General Qasem Soleimani was "the second most powerful person in Iran" and therefore in the chain of command begins with  Iran's Supreme Leader  - " the head of the snake" according to that Saudi cable leaked by Wikileaks) just as the chain of command in the United States, begins with President Donald J. Trump who is the democratically elected Commander-in-Chief  and it was indeed Trump that gave the order to strike Major General Soleimani.

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