Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

Moses:

One issue is missing from your analysis: state capture. Nigerians confuse politics with governance, which is why they clap for a governor who commissions a bridge as if democracy is necessary to build one.

Who are those forces who want to capture the state? A small cabal must control the oil from the Niger Delta (revenues are diminishing), the Lagos port (it brings more revenues that the entire budget of Ghana), and extract gold and run away with them in the middle of the night. With my base in Austin, I don't know what they are whispering. Politics is not controlled by rallies but by whispers. Who controls the gossip chain? I know how it works in Ibadan!

Power in Nigeria is not to deliver good governance, unfortunately.

TF

 

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ebe Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Date: Monday, January 30, 2023 at 11:27 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

The picture is getting clearer by the day. Tinubu is no fool; he saw the proverbial handwriting, the gathering storm. That's what prompted his outburst in the Abeokuta rally where he blamed Buhari for sabotaging his campaign with fuel scarcity and Naira redesign. 

 

Tinubu is finished in the Northwest. His problem there started with the botched Fatiha debacle. Social media and mosques amplified it. A few fringe Salafi preachers tied to provide a counterpoint by pointing to the Muslim-Muslim ticket and saying it's a welcome form of jihad and that, whatever the faults and deficits of Tinubu, it's an obligation for Muslims to vote that ticket, etc. That rhetoric fell flat and didn't resonate much. There was also an explosion of Hausa social media comedy skits mocking Tinubu's serial incoherence, his visible physical impairment and illness, and his obvious cognitive decline that has produced several viral moments of accidental comedy. 

 

The vernacularization of Tinubu's mental and physical frailties contributed to his problems, as did his association with the Buhari-APC brand, which in the North has become synonymous with suffering, hunger, poverty, and callousness.

 

 And then respected grassroots politician, Hajia Naja'atu Muhammad, resigned from Tinubu's Presidential Campaign Council and not only endorsed Atiku but went an a national media blitz attacking Tinubu's fitness for office, including personal stories of when Tinubu was incoherent and slept through most of a two-hour meeting with her in London and she had to talk to Bisi Akande. They tried to discredit her but she revealed more damning inside information about Tinubu and his unsuitability for office, even saying that the Yoruba should have put forward Osinbajo, whom she praised, if they really wanted a Yoruba person to succeed Buhari.

 

 Many of the Northwest power brokers are now saying openly what they had been whispering in hushed voices: that they'll only do Arewa and support one of their own, especially when the other guy is, in their estimation, not much of a Muslim. The choice of Kashim Shetimma as running mate hasn't changed their minds or rehabilitated Tinubu's Muslim identity in their eyes. Kashim, at any rate, has no clout whatsoever in the Northwest. He's a Northeastern politician, and even there, his influence is mainly in Bornu and parts of Yobe. There are more things I know but can't reveal because one must keep confidence. That's the Northwest.

 

In the Northeast, Tinubu has a good chance of winning Borno and Yobe because of Kashim Shetimma, his running mate, but that's it. Atiku will sweep Bauchi, Gombe, and Adamawa. Taraba leans Atiku but Obi may spring a surprise there or at least be competitive.

 

Coming to the Northcentral, Tinubu has no chance except in Kwara. NC is a contest between Obi and Atiku. Obi is favored in Benue, Plateau, and FCT. Nasarrawa probably leans Atiku but is truly a toss up between Atiku and Obi. Kogi leans Atiku, but Tinubu will get second place there. Niger is Atiku's. Here, in the NC, who wins the zone may be determined not necessarily by who wins the most states but by who wins the most votes. That's uncertain at this point.

 

Obi's path is daunting. He has zero chance in the Northwest and won't even "smell" second place there. The only state in which he will be competitive in the Northeast is Taraba. Elsewhere in that zone, I don't see him getting second place.

 

Atiku's strength with 26 days to go is that where he doesn't win, he's likely to come second and add to his tally. In other words, he'll be competitive in all the 6 zones of Nigeria. Another strength is that the Northwest and Northeast, the two biggest voting blocs in terns of number of registered voters, are coalescing around him.

 

If Tinubu can't turn things around in the NW and NE (difficult but not impossible), he's toast as he can't win with SW votes alone and has no chance in SE,SS, and NC.

 

Obi's best chance is a massive youth turnout that makes him competitive everywhere except the NW and much of the NE.

 

TF is absolutely right: one day is an eternity in politics, let alone 26 days. A lot can shift between now and the election, and Tinubu is capable of pulling off the come-from-the-dead feat that won him the APC primary. Elite consensus can shift on a dime. Atiku can self-destruct. Obi can explode and change the dynamics and all permutations.

 

But as of today, and going by the trends we observe, the election is Atiku's to lose.

 

Based on the current trend (which can change in the next 24 hours), I'll say the following: 

If Atiku wins, I won't be surprised

If Tinubu wins I will be really, really surprised

If Obi wins, I will be shocked--pleasantly so, by the way.

 

On Mon, Jan 30, 2023 at 6:22 AM Moses Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com> wrote:

Dr. Oyegbile,

 

Please I'll send you a corrected version shortly for you to publish on your site. This one has some errors because I wrote and sent it at night (first as a Facebook update) and was too sleepy to proofread.

 

Thanks,

Moses

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 30, 2023, at 5:20 AM, Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD. <yinka2005@gmail.com> wrote:



It's the piece on Tinubu by Ochonu that I'm talking about. Titled BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

 

On Mon, 30 Jan 2023 at 11:11, Toyin Falola <toyinfalola@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

The piece below is by Toyin Adepoju, and not Moses Ochonu.

Permission may not be necessary if you reference the source.

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD. <yinka2005@gmail.com>
Date: Monday, January 30, 2023 at 4:02 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

Prof Ochonu,

Permission to share and publish this on a website I managed, please.

 

 

On Mon, 30 Jan 2023 at 09:11, Oluwatoyin Adepoju <ovdepoju@gmail.com> wrote:

May Tinubu and his Boko Haram stained partner Shettima not win. May Atiku, who has been compliant through silence and obfuscation on terrorism  from imperialists among his fellow Fulani, not win.

All Moses has done is analyze Tinubu's political strategy and its implications, no more. He has not spoken for or against him. He has not added something also significant, what might be a growing disenchantment with Tinubu even in the SW.

I was shocked to observe anti-Tinubu sentiment even among the admittedly few academic and non-academic staff I interacted with at Obafemi Awolowo University  late last year,  a place where Yoruba is the lingua franca, even among academics.

It also seems that aspects of the Tinubu legacy have soured a significant number of people in the SW. One of these is what may be called the Agbero Factor, the use of a motley band of people, often associated with the National Road Transport Workers union, as informal tax collectors and political enablers, leading to the fleecing of transporters and thuggery.

Watching the Covenant church organised discussion among gubernatorial contenders on Channels TV yesterday, a discussion that the APC/Tinubu candidate, Lagos state governor Sanwo Olu chose not to attend, I got the impression that the Tinubu era in SW politics might be coming to an end, having been battered both by its own internal contradictions and the terrible fallout from the alliance with Buhari.

I remain amazed at Tinubu's choice of Shettima as his running mate, wondering the kind of risky calculations  informing that move, something that Tinubu loyalists I have spoken with have not been able to reasonably justify.

Tinubu's story might be  best appreciated in comparison with that of Awo, the quintessential hero of SW politics and the most illustrious  figure from the region in national politics.

Awo and Tinubu represent the tension in that region's politics between regional consolidation and national reach, particularly in relation to efforts to rule the country,  a struggle also marked in Northern politics, an oscillation pursued with most success by Northern military and political figures,  with Buhari being the most successful, ironically with the help of Tinubu and his compatriots, as Tinubu outlined in his emilokan speech.

 

Awo's role in the civil war and his subsequent politics may be seen as nationalistic orientations,  but which yet failed to give him the Presidency, leaving his achievements in the SW his largely incontestable legacy.

Tinubu created a political empire in the SW and is trying to extend it into becoming President, using an alliance that was risky at the onset and has proven cancerous in its maturation.

 

What options were open to Tinubu, given what some see as the sidelining of the SW in the most strategic appointments in the GEJ govt, even though Adesina's achievement in that cabinet is understood as exemplary by many? Various forces were arrayed against GEJ, who was perhaps pushing his luck too far in seeking a second term after completing Yaradua's term and his own first term. Tinubu and others successfully constellated those forces in forcing GEJ out.

Tinubu needs a strategy that will manage the Buhari liability and other liabilities he is suffering, referenced by Moses as  ''gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges'' a description for which there is evidence in favour of, whatever one might think of the evidence.

A touching story. As one view put it, having positioned himself and others for decades at lower levels, his best chance for the highest level arrives when time is far advanced, when health issues are unhelpful, when the alliance on which so much was staked, so much history revised to support, is proving problematic.

 

May he not win.

May the man who was silent while the SW and the nation was ravaged by Fulani imperialists and bandits, a person who has elevated to the national stage Kassim Shettima, the figure who enabled the Chibok kidnapping by keeping the Chibok school open against the orders of the fed govt and in whose governors lodge Boko Haram bomber, massacerer of innocents, Kabiru Sokoto, is described as having been  found, the man who enabled a clearly terorrism sympathetic, violent figure whose supporters have massacred others for him, into reaching the Presidency,  not win.

Thanks

 

Toyin

 

 

 

On Mon, 30 Jan 2023 at 00:58, <seguno2013@gmail.com> wrote:

I admire the position of TF and his conclusion quoted below. 

"I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy." TF 

 

 Segun Ogungbemi. 

-- 

Sent from my iPhone

 

On Jan 29, 2023, at 11:59 AM, Toyin Falola <toyin.falola53@gmail.com> wrote:

am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.

TF

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 11:54 AM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

Dr. Oyeniyi,

 

Let me be a good Nigerian and answer your first and second questions with two questions. Where in my piece did I state that the election has been conducted, won, and lost? Is there a rule that says observers cannot pontificate or analyze an election or its trends until it is conducted?

 

You say you're not a northerner so cannot speak to Buhari's current political standing among the northern masses. Then listen to a "northerner" who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.

 

Cheers.

Sent from my iPhone

 

On Jan 29, 2023, at 11:31 AM, Folami Kolade <kollyjoe2002@gmail.com> wrote:



Tinubu is losing the election. Atiku is winning. May God help Nigeria.

 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyeniyib@gmail.com> wrote:

Dr. Ochonu,

 

Permit me to learn more from you and consequently educate myself by your answers to the following questions.

 

1. Has the election been conducted? If so,  who won? If not, how did you know that Tinubu has lost the election?

 

2. You noted that Buhari failed without as much as itemizing the indicators with which you arrive at your conclusions. 

 

Yes, I know that Nigeria's economy is moribund and insecurity is at its highest levels, however, economic crisis is commonplace, even in advanced democracy. I was at Walmart just yesterday night and a crate of egg sold for 5.00 USD. 

 

3. I am not a northerner and therefore cannot speak to the acceptance or otherwise of Buhari across the north. 

 

Sir, I do not think social media is also a barometer to gauge Buhari's or anyone's acceptance, especially in Nigeria. How then do you come to the conclusion that Northern youths have dumped Buhari?

 

Thank you for your time. 

 

Bukola

 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023, 10:49 AM Toyin Falola <toyinfalola@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

Has he lost the election?

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ebe Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 10:15 AM
To: USAAfricaDialogue <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

 

BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

Moses E. Ochonu

 

Tinubu's strategy from the very beginning was wrong. Perhaps it was a product of his arrogant entitlement ideology of emi lokan (it's my turn).

 

He wrote off the Southeast and South-south and put all his proverbial eggs in the northern basket. He went all in, gambling that the north would deliver for him and that, combined with the southwestern vote, that would give him the presidency.

 

It was always a risky electoral strategy. Firstly, it overly relies on the support of APC governors and other APC stakeholders in the north. It overestimates the political capital of the APC governors and stakeholders in the region, given Buhari/APC's woeful performance and its discrediting effect on everyone associated with the party.

 

Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him. That, unfortunately for him, has been made quite difficult by the advent of BVAS and electronic vote transmission. 

 

The Osun ruling from yesterday is a further disincentive for rigging since any serious discrepancy between declared votes and the number of BVAS-accredited voters will render a victory invalid. Politicians may be more less inclined to rig considering yesterday's judgment that hinged on over-voting.

 

Secondly, BAT's strategy overly relied on hitching himself to Buhari. That strategy was flawed last year and is even more flawed today. It overestimates the extent to which Buhari still holds sway over the Northern masses. 

Conversely, it underestimates or even ignores the anger and opposition towards Buhari and APC at the Northern political grassroots, a resentment borne out of the catastrophic failure of Buhari in the North in particular. The resulting disappointment runs deep.

 

This is 2023, not 2015. I often shake my head when I read Southwestern political analysts and pundits, including Tinubu's people, talk about Buhari's cult-like following in the north. Even in January 2023, I still hear and read that outdated claim. It was true in 2015. It is now pure fiction.

 

Not only is that narrative not true today, but the northern masses have in fact turned decisively against Buhari/APC. The cult-like adulation of 2015 has transformed into an implacable angst against Buhari/APC. Tinubu is using the political reality, language, and rhetoric of 2015 to campaign in 2022/23. His strategists have completely missed the recent radical shift in the political mood of the northern electorate.

 

And so, Tinubu and his strategists continue to believe that pandering to Buhari, professing love for him, and drawing ever closer to him would translate to votes in the north. That wrong prognosis is what is informing their strategy.

 

The interesting thing is that Tinubu, in his Ogun state rally speech, seemed to have inadvertently thrown off the yoke of his inexplicable loyalty to Buhari, a bromance or pretended political bromance that is now an electoral liability in the region that holds the key to his victory--the north.

 

When he blamed Buhari and the cabal for sabotaging his campaign, he was finally finding his own voice and separating himself from his burdensome and increasingly costly embrace of Buhari. 

 

Even if this was not what he intended, strategically, it was a good thing for him. It would enable him to ditch his counterproductive over-reliance on Buhari and the APC northern elite and give him a rhetorical platform to appeal directly to northern voters by demonstrating to them that he is his own man, is not beholden to Buhari and APC, their tormentors in the last seven years, and that were he to win, he would move in a different direction.

 

Did Buhari stay the course in this new independent path that could help him? No. Instead he and his aides have, for 48 hours straight, been kissing and making up with Buhari. They've been mollifying Buhari. They're backtracking and restating Tinubu's admiration for Buhari and his commitment to their friendship.

 

More egregiously, they've been repeating Tinubu's ill-advised and losing rhetoric that he would continue with Buhari's achievements and policies if elected.

 

His Ogun State speech gave him a golden opportunity to finally break away from the losing message of wanting to continue from where Buhari stops, but instead of sticking with the newly minted anti-Buhari rhetoric, he and his handlers went right back to the failing messaging of wanting to be Buhari 2.0.

 

They continue to gamble foolishly on Buhari's eroded political goodwill in the north and the largely impotent support of northern APC political leaders while neglecting the critical task of appealing to and changing the minds of an increasingly anti-APC northern electorate.

 

Even if Buhari was still popular in the north, Buhari's refusal to directly boost Tinubu or campaign for him in the north should have taught Tinubu a lesson: that kissing up to Buhari is a losing strategy even in the north. In 2023.

 

Some may argue that Tinubu has no choice but to cling to Buhari and that, given his gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges, this is his only remaining card to play even if it's fraught with risk and is proving detrimental. 

 

I don't agree. If unfavorable electoral dynamics and political events compel you to gamble, the most reasonable gamble is to separate yourself from a failed president and hope that it helps you with an electorate disillusioned with that president.

 

 

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MAJOR AWARDS/FELLOWSHIPS

 

1) 2010 Journalist to Journalist/The Union Fellowship, Berlin,Germany

 

2) 2005 Knight Journalism Fellowship at Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

 
3) 2003 World Health Organisation (WHO) Fellowship in Public Health
Journalism, Geneva, Switzerland

4) 2001 Steve Biko Memorial Scholars' Fellowship, Johannesburg, South Africa

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MAJOR AWARDS/FELLOWSHIPS

 

1) 2010 Journalist to Journalist/The Union Fellowship, Berlin,Germany

 

2) 2005 Knight Journalism Fellowship at Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

 
3) 2003 World Health Organisation (WHO) Fellowship in Public Health
Journalism, Geneva, Switzerland

4) 2001 Steve Biko Memorial Scholars' Fellowship, Johannesburg, South Africa

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