Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - On Iran and Botswana: The Audacity…the audacity!

SA,

I appreciate your comments and comparative approach. 

It seems that the Washington DC and Tel Aviv policy makers thought that a massive assembly of warships would scare the Iranians into submission. I suspect that they really did not anticipate the Iranian refusal to accept the Faustian pact that demanded Iranian disarmament of their missiles etc.

 Also, the Iranians were negotiating in good faith but would be confronted with a lethal attack from the other side even during the negotiations.

Christian Zionist eschatology is key in this war according to Prof Jiang, the geopolitical analyst. Add to that  Shiite eschatology and we have a massive conflagration unfolding.

One lesson from this war, so far, is that cheap drones can be as lethal as million dollar armaments. A decentralized  mosaic military 

model seems to be an effective one, for now, for the Iranians.Time will tell how this copes with massive carpet bombing by the U.S.-Israeli duo. 18 hospitals bombed in Iran.

The unknown factor is the impact of total oil embargo via the Straits of Hormuz on everyone. Who benefits?Will the Gulf states survive this?Is this the end of  US military bases in West Asia? Will pax Judaica prevail?

GE

On Fri, Mar 6, 2026 at 00:40 Sabella Abidde <abiddeseries@gmail.com> wrote:

Most people believed that Iran would surrender after 3-7 days of pounding by the US/Israeli military and their overt and covert allies. But that's not what we are seeing now. That is not the reality in Iran and across much of the Middle East. What's going on?

As undergraduates at Saint Cloud State University in Minnesota, we read a book in one of our international relations classes entitled "Why Nations Go to War," by John G. Stoessinger.

As others have said elsewhere, the book is "meant to convey an understanding of modern warfare. It is a unique book built around ten contemporary case studies, emphasizing the pivotal role of the personalities of leaders who take their nations, or their followers, into war."

One of the most memorable lines in the books was this: "The emperors and generals who sent their men to war in August 1914 thought in terms of weeks, not months, let alone years." They were blinded by an exaggerated sense of self, by hubris.

So, did the politicians and generals who sent their honorable, courageous, and patriotic men and women to take on the Iranian also think in terms of days/weeks…believing that once the Iranian military and political leadership was decapitated, the rest of the military and governing structure would collapse and beg for a do-over?

In all of these, three things are clear: One, Iran is not Iraq. Second, everyone on all sides miscalculated. And third, all the leaders in that and this part of the world must be wondering and lamenting. For sure, for sure, global politics would never be the same again.

The end of the Second World War and the Cold War were pivotal moments in world history; this year, 2026, would also be another pivotal and epoch-making moment.

Something else to think about: President Duma Gideon Boko's response to the invitation to visit the White House for a discussion on bilateral engagements. It was, to say the least, stunning and commendable.

Sabella O. Abidde 

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