Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - State

The state has been having deep problems for a long time.

Toyin

On Sat, Mar 14, 2026, 4:40 AM 'Michael Afolayan' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> wrote:

"Most of the rice mills that were flourishing under President Buhari

have shut down operations because they cannot compete with the price

of foreign rice." - JI

And, if I may ask, where were (or are) those rice mills? And if they "were flourishing under President Buhari," was it the administration of President Buhari that solely instituted them? What did administrations before Buhari do? Are there anything - mills, or what have you, "flourishing under President Tinubu at all? On the titular allusion, was "The Nigerian State  ever crumbling as we watch" it under President Buhari? Just curious. Not that I have an answer to any of those questions. 

Thanks a bunch!

MOA

On Friday, March 13, 2026 at 03:01:15 PM EDT, Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinibrahim891@gmail.com> wrote:

The Nigerian State is Crumbling as we watch

Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 13th March 2026

The Nigerian State is crumbling. There is widespread violence

orchestrated by state actors and state supported actors at the same

time that violent insurgencies and bandit-orchestrated violence is

spreading and deepening. At the same time, institutions are crumbling

as they get diverted to serve the interest of those in power. The

judiciary has become a sad tale of the perpetuation of injustice to

serve the interest of those in power. The tax authorities have been

turned into a weapon to impoverish the people as multiple taxation

through bank withdrawals, VAT, personal income taxes augmentation is

all synchronized to get every last kobo from ordinary Nigerians whose

income is incapable of meeting their daily needs. The police lives

simply to provide security for VIPs and not security for the people.

Meanwhile, electricity and other municipal charges have been

multiplied to actively promote mass penury. The irony is that the

president finds it funny and announces with glee that he has made the

state set up an independent solar system for his house and office just

as he tells Nigerians they must pay the "unpayable" electricity

charges being charged to consumers. Objective political science can

only describe such policies as wickedness.

In his recent article on constant government violence organised

against opposition members, my good friend Dakuku Peterside warms

against the dangers of allowing violence to consume our democracy:

"Democracies do not usually collapse because one day violence suddenly

appears from nowhere. They decay when violence is normalised in

increments—first as intimidation, then as disruption, then as

reprisal, and finally as a parallel language of politics. Once public

life begins to reward menace more than persuasion, elections stop

being contests of ideas and become tests of brute capacity. At that

point, the ballot is still printed, the rallies are still advertised,

and the parties still campaign, but the civic meaning of politics has

already been hollowed out."

The tragedy of the situation is that the government is acting this way

in a context in which decades of poor governance has already created a

context of State fragility that can easily push the country into the

abyss. Nigeria remains one of the most terrorism-affected countries in

the world. There is mass violence driven primarily by Boko Haram,

Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), armed bandit networks, and

emerging jihadist groups operating along the Sahel corridor.

The insurgency that began in 2009 has killed more than 40,000 people

and displaced over 2 million civilians in northeastern Nigeria alone.

Subsequently, militant violence developed in the Northwest -  in the

Nigeria–Niger–Benin border region covering most States and then moved

to the Northcentral zone of the country.

In the Northeast, terrorist attacks on army formations have increased

considerably over the last six months and the terrorists appear to be

besieging and encircling Maiduguri for takeover. In its propaganda

messages published by its media wing, Amaq, ISWAP has been boasting of

the successes of its attacks against the military in the zone and the

elimination of officers. In the Northwest, terrorist forces from Mali

and Niger have descended southwards and now occupy territory from

Sokoto through Zamfara to Niger and Kwara states. Armed bandits from

these forces with an agenda of pillaging and implementing a scorched

earth policy have moved to the Northcentral and to the south as Benue

and Plateau States continue to bleed. Increasingly the situation has

been turning into an equal opportunity action with other youth gangs

integrating into and spreading the chaos.

The response of the Nigerian Government is to get the United States to

deploy about 200 soldiers to Nigeria's North-east to provide training

and support counterterrorism operations. The deployment came after

weeks of diplomatic tension between the Nigerian government and the

United States, sparked by remarks from President Donald Trump, who

claimed that a "Christian genocide" was carried out by Islamist

militant groups in Nigeria. The reality is that Christians, Muslims

and everyone else are being massacred. The Nigerian Government is yet

to do what is necessary, expand the armed forces and adopt their

strategy to successfully combat scattered fast moving asymmetrical

bandit/terrorist warfare.

Rather than focus on trying to reassert state authority and

re-establish peace, the government is concentrating on destroying the

political opposition with the objective of ensuring they are not

capable of contesting the 2027 elections. The risk is that they might

succeed in disrupting the opposition and ALL OF US LOSE the country to

terrorists and insurgents. What would it profit President Tinubu to

destroy the political opposition only to find out he has no country to

rule over?

Meanwhile, The Nigerian economy is doing very badly if you talk to the

people and very well if you talk to the IMF. The more the Bretton

Woods institutions praise President Tinubu for cutting fuel subsidy,

floating the Naira and overtaxing the people, the more Nigerians groan

on their plight. The divide is about the interest of the people and

can clearly be seen when we look at agriculture. Under President

Tinubu, Nigeria spent N51 billion ($34.4 million) on foreign rice in

2024, signalling a sharp reversal of the self-sufficiency gains by the

previous administration. Today, local rice has become uncompetitive

against cheaper imports. Government policy has imposed high production

costs and expensive energy pricing Nigerian farmers out of their own

market. Concordant reports indicate that farmers in key States such as

Kano, Kebbi and Jigawa are exiting rice production.

Most of the rice mills that were flourishing under President Buhari

have shut down operations because they cannot compete with the price

of foreign rice. Small-scale millers are particularly vulnerable to

the rising costs of diesel and high interest rates on loans. The Rice

Millers Association of Nigeria has warned that the local industry is

on the brink of collapse. Most surviving mills operate with massive

unutilised capacity, which drives up their overhead costs. The federal

government's decision to grant import waivers on essential goods has

created a crisis for agricultural production. Farmers find themselves

in a new reality in which rice cultivation has become a loss-making

venture. The collapse of the rice value chain is undoing years of

carefully crafted agricultural self-sufficiency programming.

A situation in which State power is abused, government is extorting

citizens, non-state actors are killing and maiming the people and the

economy is made to work against the people is a dangerous one. The

present conjecture of elections on the horizon that are being eroded

of a level playing field adds to the overriding sense of growing

injustice. If the government does not care, we the people must do what

is necessary to save our country, our institutions and our democracy.

The time has come to move from lamentations to action.

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

--

Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin

To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com

To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com 

Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue

Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html

---

You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.

To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/CAPWX8rX43ZmySuZmhjkEXf62bPLy%3DRxy9pN1-JCF86megPtZNg%40mail.gmail.com.

--
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/421936596.876283.1773432453978%40mail.yahoo.com.

--
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/CACMz5zmLZoL-ns9ZBQkt2ayM57rq7L_2uJ2ocQPCkF552cvSCw%40mail.gmail.com.