This ZONING palava is Nigerian elite clap-trap.
1. It is an internal PDP affair that is being used the bother the whole nation unnecessarily.
2. If PDP's internal workings throw up Goodluck Jonathan because of non-zoning - or either because of his competence or respect for the long-suffering Niger-Delta region - then so be it, and let those within PDP who are not happy about it defect from the party, and throw up the person who would have been preferred as the candidate of another party.
3. If PDP's internal workings throw out its incumbent Goodluck Jonathan from the party's candidacy, and he is unhappy about it and still wishes to run, then let him defect from the PDP, and run in another party and test the national sympathy for his own candidacy, either on his own merit or as a representative of the long-suffering Niger-Delta region.
4. Either way, the other major political parties - AC and ANPP - should test the zoning/non-zoning sympathies of the nation by fielding a candidate according to their own best wisdom.
5. And where does INEC fit into all of this? That it ensures, free fair and credible elections, whether Goodluck runs or not.
Back in Febuary 2010 , I wrote in "SATURDAY ESSAY: Now that Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is Acting President..... " inter alia that
7. he should give an early indication whether he is running for President in 2011 or not.
This will be his trickiest challenge - politico-ethnic balancing within his own party, which unfortunately impinges on the whole nation through an informal rotational North-South zoning agreement that has no constitutional basis. Jonathan should emphasize that this is still a Yar'Adua presidency until otherwise stated, and that an eight-year presidency for any one incumbent has never been assured in the Constitution of Nigeria. Nevertheless, while between October and December 2010, the political dynamics will become clearer, it is advisable that by July or August, Jonathan should telegraph his political ambitions for 2011 to his party and to the nation.
UNQUOTE
That July/August window is now upon us.
Should he run? My own advice is now that he should not run, not because I wish him to respect any informal zoning arrangements, but primarily because I have not seen him show traction as substantive president so far since May, and to run based purely on either incumbency or Niger-Delta representativeness sounds dodgy to me.
Will he run? My own tea-leaves show that Goodluck Jonathan will eventually not run, despite enormous pressures from his Niger-Delta constituency, citing the imperative of delivering free and fair elections come 2011 as an un-biased umpire. He will receive national and international plaudits for him, and ride off to the sun - and maybe win the Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership in four years. Quite frankly, one major reason would be because there are conflicting signals to him from both the North-West and North-East, as well as from the South-West and South-East. That is four out of six political zones. The other reason is his own realisation that he has not been able to achieve any of his pared-down 7-point agenda in the short time that he has been president.
Finally, Goodluck Jonathan must realise this: the Niger-Delta is currently having a President in Nigeria, and his name is Jonathan. It may be another Niger-Delta man, or another time, that a Niger-Deltan will be elected on his own steam - for four to eight years.
I end on a religious note, as I ended in the previous Saturday Essays to which I referred:
QUOTE
8. Jonathan should continue to seek God's guidance, receive more goodluck and exercise patience.*
Jonathan's life moves from deputy class monitor to assistant university lecturer to deputy governor to governor to Vice-President to Acting President appear charmed, with a healthy dose of God's favor, good luck (no pun intended) and patience. He needs now more than ever both Prayers and
Patience - and he has the latter in his Acting First Lady.
UNQUOTE
And there you have it.
Bolaji Aluko
--- In NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com, JOE AKA <olabode43@...> wrote:
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> The presentation is very sound, reasonable and objective. What constitutional, legal, moral or political argument or justification does anybody have to exclude an incumbent Nigerian President Jonathan from contesting the 2011 presidential election, and expect the country to be at peace?
> Nigerian leaders emphasising zoning are placing their own personal interests above the best interest of Nigeria. Nigerians are presently wiser than ever before. The majority will not jeopardise Nigerian national interest to worship sacred cows and untouchables who have grounded the country with impunity. What makes these "zoning criers" think that they are indispensable; that they are better than everybody and have right more than everybody to rule Nigerians with their ignoble antecedents? Can they not see beyond their limited scope and recognise that Nigeria is larger than individuals or groups in the country? What have they done in 50 years to improve the plight of their own people who are languishing in generational poverty? Those who are intelligent will not listen to them but cast them aside as lost and irrelevant to 'New Nigeria'.
> God Bless The Federal Republic Of Nigeria!
> Dr. Jubril Olabode Aka, PhD.
> Texas, USA.
>
>
> To: NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com; NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; IgboEvents@yahoogroups.com; IgboWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; Waawa@yahoogroups.com
> From: limpidresources@...
> Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 16:27:30 +0000
> Subject: [NaijaPolitics] World Press Conference on Politics of Power Change in Nigeria by Senator Chief Francis Arthur Nzeribe.
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> FULL TEXT OF MONDAY JULY 19TH 2010 WORLD PRESS CONFERENCE ON: "POLITICS OF POWER CHANGE IN NIGERIA" BY SENATOR CHIEF FRANCIS ARTHUR NZERIBE.
> STRATEGIC BALANCING OF POWR [ZONING]
> Since Dr Goodluck Jonathan took over office as the President and Commander-In- Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, sequel to the demise of the former President, Late Umaru Musa Yar' Adua, more so as year 2011 is fast approaching, the question of zoning in Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] has become prominent in public discourse, featuring two groups of "for" and "against".
> The pro-zoning and anti-zoning groups of the Presidential office have merits in their views. However, it is important to carefully consider which outweighs the other in the light of the fundamental objective of zoning concept. - Peace, Unity and Stability in Nigeria- through wide-spread participation and involvement.
> Proponents of zoning like Tanko Yakassai, Tam David West, former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice President, Atiku Abubaker, have argued that our party zoned Presidency to the North for Eight [8] years from 2007 to 2015, that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan is morally obliged to allow the North complete its term in office.
> As it is, the antagonists of zoning in the sense being projected by the protagonists posit that zoning is not sacrosanct, [Chief Toney Anenih - Punch Newspaper of June 21st 2010]. Lack of seriousness on this is well known to Nigerians. If the leaders of our party believed and respected zoning, Engineer Barnabas Gemade and Alhaji Abubaker Rimi both North [North Central and North West respectably] should not have contested the 2002 primary election of our party. In 2007 when Presidency was believed to have been zoned to the North, Southerners from PDP, including Peter Odili, Victor Attah, and Donald Duke etc challenged Northern aspirants that included Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, Abdulahi Adamu and Professor Jerry Gana. ZONING CAN ONLY BE MADE SACROSANCT, IF THE SITTING PRESIDENT DETERMINED AS SUCH. WHAT STOPS HIM FROM DOING SO IN HIS FAVOUR AND INDEED OFFERING TO RUN, PARTICULARLY AS THE NATIONAL CONSTITUTION DOES NOT BAR HIM, IN ADDITION TO THE PARTY'S CONSTITUTION BEING SILENT ON IT – AS TO WHETHER A SITTING PRESIDENT SHOULD RUN OR NOT?
>
> Arguments on zoning existence or that it has been jettisoned, would this time around miss the mark as overriding them is the question of WHO DETERMINES ZONING; WHETHER BY WAY OF PRACTICE OR AS A MATTER OF RULE AND/OR LAW. Suffice to remark that just as General Abdulsalami Abubaker did in 1998 and Chief Olusegun Obasanjo [1999-2007] in 2003 and 2007, by virtue of their exalted position to appreciate the Stability and Security needs of the nation, determined in our party where the Presidency resided, it is expected that our President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan should decide where PDP would prefer the President to emerge come 2011. In doing so, Dr Goodluck Jonathan can as well offer himself in PDP for consideration to run for the Presidency. IN-FACT, HE SHOULD RUN UNDER FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.
> I observed that consciously or unconsciously all the groups in zoning debate are conceding the Presidency to President Goodluck Jonathan. The President has not made any statement; meanwhile, we are all taking positions in preparation to his contesting the next Presidential election, propagating that the balancing should favour the Riverine Nigerians, that it to say, Niger Delta. It is an undisputed fact that, the Niger Delta has Supported, Developed, Fed and still Feeding Nigeria for 40 years. Viewed from this angle, to allow for a 4 years Presidential leadership from this goose that lays the golden eggs [Niger-Delta] is not too much a sacrifice.
> Eight [8] years for 40[Forty] years, where is the scale of justice? Is it not immoral that certain group is recruiting canvassers that are campaigning against an imagined candidate? Recently, the South-East Governors made a statement of support for Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, but that is not enough. The declaration of support should be concrete and unambiguous. We of South–East should make our support for President Goodluck Jonathan clear, unambiguous and concrete.
> The dialogue should not be misapplied. We should not use a good course to promote an immoral advantage. We should remember and reflect on the source of wealth for the development of Nigeria over the past 40 years: the Roads, Schools and surprisingly without discrimination.
> I call eight for [8] years of compensation in return for Forty [40] years of extortion. In short, after 40 years of marginalization and suffering, Nigerians must allow the Niger Delta region to produce the President for eight [8] years through Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. This is the only way genuine Peace, Progress and Stability will be achieved in our country.
> Finally, what I am advocating is that sincerity should reign in this matter [2011 Presidency]. To zone Presidency to South-South or anywhere in the South, only to apply democratic machinery and take it back, is totally unacceptable. The political engineering must be such that produces a Nigerian President from Niger-Delta; as was the case in 1999 where the political engineering produced a Nigerian President from South-West. There is nothing in the Niger-Delta law [Amnesty and all] that will serve the purpose if the Presidency is not in the bag.
> We should steer away from the Zoning debate as it would be counterproductive and generate unnecessary political bad-blood. One thing that is obvious along the line is that there was a twinkling exercise: Call it Zoning, Power balancing or Power-change. All the participants to the exercise are still around politically, and they should use their political agility.
> In conclusion, what was good in 1999 for Obasanjo/South-West should be equally good for Jonathan/South-South in 2011.
>
> Signed:
> SENATOR CHIEF FRANCIS ARTHUR NZERIBE
>
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