This paper is a summary of the discussions that took place during a small closed-door study group convened at Chatham House in January 2012 to discuss the ongoing situation in Syria.
Key points that emerged from the meeting included:
- The regime is unlikely to survive in the long term but will fight on in the short term. In contrast to its counterparts in several other Arab countries, it has so far remained relatively cohesive in the face of the uprising.
- Although the protest movement has been largely peaceful, continued violence by the regime is leading to the beginning of an armed insurgency. A number of regional and international powers may offer arms and training to opposition groups.
- Nevertheless, the regime has the overwhelming advantage in terms of military capability and may be able to fight on for a year or two unless there is a massive uprising in Damascus and Aleppo, or an intervention.
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