On Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 8:37 PM, Mensah, Edward K. <dehasnem@uic.edu> wrote:
Professor Bangura
You are an eminent scholar and I will expect you to present other
polling results for the readers to interpret. What has been Rasmussen's
predictions of presidential election winners compared to Reuters,
CNN, etc? Give us other polling results. As a scholar you know you
cannot rely on one source to make decisions when there are lots of other
credible sources.
Kwaku
On Thu, August 2, 2012 4:52 pm, Abdul Karim Bangura wrote:
> body{font-size:10pt;font-family:arial,sans-serif;background-color:#ffffff;color:black;}p{margin:0px;}Mwalimu
> Adenekan, I don't know who this Jeffrey Anderson is, but he must be The
> Father of All BOZOS. Rasmussen has no such nonsense. Rasmussen's latest
> Electoral College Numbers that came out yesterday has a 31 vote
> difference.The following is today's Rasmussen poll---the most reliable
> daily poll, not drawn-out, that is based on actual voters, not including
> those who do not vote. Romney leads Obama by 2% and Obama is also at a
> very high -21% nationally. With the bad economic news that came out again
> today, Obama is on a downward spiral. He needs an economic miracle to save
> his job.
> Daily Presidential Tracking Poll in Politics
> Email thisShareThis
> Thursday, August 02, 2012 The
> Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking
> Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting
> 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns
> support from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some
> other candidate, and five percent (5%) are
> undecided. Fifty-one percent (51%)
> consider Romney's views to be in the mainstream
> while 37% say they're extreme. Voters are more
> evenly divided on the president. Forty-four
> percent (44%) say Obama's views are mainstream
> while 47% consider them extreme. Forty-six
> percent (46%) say Election 2012 offers a choice
> between the lesser of two evils.
> Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m.
> Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
> See tracking history. Twenty-nine percent
> (29%) believe the country is generally heading
> in the right direction. Sixty-two percent
> (62%) believe the US is still in a recession.
> Overall, for the full month of July, consumer
> confidence fell to the lowest level of the
> year. Thirty-three percent (33%) give the
> president good or excellent marks for handling
> the economy. Forty-nine percent (49%) say
> he's done a poor job in this area. Not
> surprisingly, 82% of Republicans give the
> president poor marks on the economy. So do 16%
> of Democrats. On national security
> matters, the president gets positive reviews
> from 45% and negatives from 35%.
> Missouri's Democratic U.S. Senator Claire
> McCaskill still trails in her bid for
> re-election. However, she has closed the gap
> against three Republican hopefuls. The
> Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power
> ratings suggest that the Republicans are likely
> to end up with 48 Senate seats while the
> Democrats are likely to have 47. Five races are
> pure Toss-Ups. The number of people who
> consider themselves Republicans slipped in
> July. The GOP partisan identification advantage
> is now the smallest it's been in 2012.
> (Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
> Index data below) Intensity of> A president's Job Approval rating is one
> of the best indicators for assessing his
> chances of reelection. Typically, the
> president's Job Approval rating on Election
> Day will be close to the share of the vote he
> receives. Currently, 45% of voters say they at
> least somewhat approve of the president's job
> performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least
> somewhat disapprove (see trends).
> Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats approve
> and 89% of Republicans disapprove. Among those
> not affiliated with either major party, 44%
> approve and 54% disapprove. In his weekly
> newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen concludes
> that for Obama to win, "he will need to improve
> his own job approval rating between now and
> Election Day. For that to happen, perceptions
> of the economy will have to reverse their
> current downward trend." If you'd like Scott
> to speak to your organization, meeting, or
> conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
> Confidence in the labor market has fallen
> to the lowest level of 2012. Twenty percent
> (20%) of workers report their employers are
> hiring while 22% report layoffs. These are
> the weakest hiring expectations in nine months.
> Thirty-four percent (34%) believe the
> Supreme Court is doing a good or an excellent
> job while 22% say poor. Thirty-five percent
> (35%) of voters believe the Supreme Court is
> too liberal, while 27% say it is too
> conservative. Voters tend to see the balance
> between individual rights and national
> security concerns as appropriate.
> However, 68% believe there are too many laws in
> the United States. Half (50%) say there are
> too many people in jail for minor, non-violent
> crimes. On the balance between individual
> freedom and government power, 66% believe that
> there is too much government power and too
> little individual freedom. Just eight percent
> (8%) believe the opposite to be true. In
> Missouri, Romney leads by six. The state is
> rated Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports
> Electoral College Projections. The projections
> show that Obama is likely to win states with
> 201 Electoral College Votes while Romney is
> likely to win in states with 170. Thirteen
> states with 167 Electoral College Votes are
> either Toss-Ups or Leaners. (Approval
> support or opposition can have an impact on
> campaigns. Currently, 23% of the nation's
> voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is
> performing as president. Forty-four percent
> (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a
> Presidential Approval Index rating of -21 (see
> trends). During midterm elections,
> intensity of support can have a tremendous
> impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in
> 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters
> turned out in large numbers to express
> opposition to the Obama administration's
> policies. However, in presidential election
> years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
> To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval
> trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports
> also compiles our tracking data on a full
> month-by-month basis. (More below)
> Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work
> is followed by millions on a wide variety of
> platforms. We regularly release our results at
> RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email
> newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news
> service, an online video service and a weekly
> newspaper column distributed by Creators
> Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV
> show--What America Thinks --is scheduled for
> launch in September 2012. Our firm has
> been a pioneer in the use of automated
> telephone polling techniques, but many other
> firms still utilize their own
> operator-assisted technology (see methodology).
> Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill
> Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for
> both integrity and accuracy." During Election
> 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack
> Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46%
> margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004,
> Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project
> the vote totals for both candidates within
> half a percentage point. Learn more about the
> Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
> Daily tracking results are collected via
> telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per
> night and reported on a three-day rolling
> average basis. To reach those who have
> abandoned traditional landline telephones,
> Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to
> interview randomly selected participants from
> a demographically diverse panel. The margin of
> sampling error for the full sample of 1,500
> Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with
> a 95% level of confidence. Results are also
> compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for
> full-week results are available for Platinum
> Members.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Shola Adenekan
> Sent: Aug 2, 2012 4:38 PM
> To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
> Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture
>
> Dear All,
>
> The brain-trust of American conservatism, Weekly Standard, which is also a
> sister news organisation of Rupert Murdoch's Fox News just confirmed what
> many politicos already know - Obama is more likely to win re-election!
>
> http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rasmussen-obama-284-romney-235_649241.html
>
> And here you have it!
>
> Olorunshola
> Rasmussen: Obama 284, Romney 235 3:16 PM, Aug 2,
> 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
> Single Page Print> War, Rasmussen confirms that Obama is in the lead. If we look at all
> Larger Text Smaller Text Alerts
> A new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll, which shows President Obama
> handily beating Mitt Romney among likely voters in Florida, Ohio, and
> Pennsylvania, has sparked justifiable concern among some Republicans. In
> the wake of that poll, it's worth comparing the state-by-state polling
> from Rasmussen Reports, whose polling is perhaps viewed with less
> skepticism in conservative circles. Unfortunately, only three months and
> four days away from the most important election at least since the Civil
> Rasmussen polling taken in the past month in the ten key swing states> Related StoriesCause for ConcernObama Has Spent $15
> (Fla., Ohio, Va., Wis., Penn., Nev., Mich., Colo., Iowa, and N.H.) and
> fill in the rest of the states as they would be expected to go, the tally
> as of today would be as follows: 284 electoral votes for Obama, 235 for
> Romney. That, of course, would be enough to give Obama another four
> years. Rasmussen's polling shows Obama leading Romney by 1 point in
> Virginia, 2 points in Ohio, 3 points in Wisconsin, 4 points in
> Pennsylvania, 5 points in Nevada, and 6 points in Michigan. It shows
> Romney beating Obama by 1 point in Florida. Rasmussen hasn't done any
> polling in the past month in Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire. (This
> 284-235 tally assumes a Romney victory in North Carolina, where he led by
> 3 points in Rasmussen's polling in late June, and Obama victories in New
> Mexico and Minnesota.)
>
> Million on Polling For 100th Consecutive Time, Voters Back Obamacare's> ...Poll: Health Care, Unemployment More Important to ... Rasmussen: Romney
> 269, Obama 243 More by Jeffrey H. Anderson> The Desire to Repeal Obamacare Unites AmericansCBO: Obamacare to
> Cost $1.930 Trillion, Leave 30 ... Paper: Is Obama the Worst Ever?Only 29
> Percent of Independents Think Obamacare Is ... Poll: Obamacare Ruling
> Makes Voters 'Less Likely' ...
> If Romney's tenuous 1-point lead in Florida were to swing the other way,
> the tally would be Obama 313, Romney 206. So far, Romney has largely
> failed to emphasize that this election is about a choice of two futures
> for America. When the election is characterized in that way, Americans
> don't like the choice being offered by Obama — and particularly by
> Obamacare. But if voters largely base their choice on image or
> personality — or on whether the party of Bush or the party of Obama is
> better suited to deal with the economic plight of the middle class — all
> bets are off. On the cusp of the most important exercise of leadership
> that Romney will have the chance to showcase prior to November — his
> selection of a running mate — he has the perfect opportunity to
> emphasize, through his pick, that this election is about a choice of two
> futures for America: liberty and prosperity, or coercion and decline.
> He needs a running mate who would both symbolize that choice and help him
> give voice to it.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 7:31 PM, kenneth harrow wrote:
> plus, nate silver is from our home town, east lansing,
> michigan; and we know his parents.
> he was a smart kid too
> ken
>
>
> On 8/2/12 6:31 PM, Moses Ebe Ochonu wrote:
> Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog in the New York Times
> is considered the most authoritative forecasting model for
> elections in the US today. His forecast and modeling were deadly
> accurate in the last two election cycles. His forecast
> uses BOTH polling and objective economic data and even
> factors in other variables like historical patterns and
> unpredictable events. Below is his assessment of how the
> race stands and his forecasting, as of yesterday, of how
> the race will conclude in November.
> Politics
>
> WORLD
> U.S.
> N.Y. /
> REGION
> BUSINESS
> TECHNOLOGY
> SCIENCE
> HEALTH
> SPORTS
> OPINION
> ARTS
> STYLE
> TRAVEL
> JOBS
> REAL
> ESTATE
> AUTOS
>
>
> POLITICS HOME
> THE
> CAUCUS
> FIVETHIRTY
> EIGHT
> G.O.P.
> CANDIDATES
> G.O.P.
> PRIMARY
> INSIDE
> CONGRESS
> POLL WATCH
> VIDEO
>
>
>
> August
> 2, 2012, 9:44
> AM35 Comments
> Aug. 1:
> Obama Extends Electoral College
> Advantage By NATE
> SILVER
>
> Barack
> Obama's standing in the
> FiveThirtyEight forecast
> reached its strongest
> position to date on Tuesday
> as a result of
> favorable polls in a set of swing
> states. The
> forecast model now gives Mr. Obama
> a 70.8
> percent chance of winning the
> Electoral
> College, up from 69.0 percent on
> Monday and from
> 65.0 percent last Tuesday.
>
> Three
> of the polls were
> conducted by Quinnipiac
> University in
> conjunction with The New York
> Times and CBS
> News. The polls gave Mr. Obama
> leads of 6 points
> in each of Ohio and Florida, and
> an 11-point lead
> in Pennsylvania.
> In each
> state, the polls are at the high
> end of the
> range of numbers produced by other
> polling firms.
> As we frequently advise, no one
> set of polls — no
> matter how reputable the
> pollster — should be read
> as gospel. Differences
> in the numbers from survey
> firm to survey firm
> often reflect sampling error
> or methodological
> differences rather than any
> fundamental change in
> the condition of the race.
> Nevertheless,
> Ohio and Pennsylvania
> polls are part of a
> consensus of polls showing
> Mr. Obama ahead in
> these states by varying
> margins. Mr. Obama has led
> 11 of the 13 polls in
> Ohio since May 1, and he has
> led all 11 polls
> conducted in Pennsylvania during
> this period.
> The
> Florida polls have been more
> equivocal: Mr. Obama
> has held 10 leads, versus
> six for Mitt Romney.
> Still, Florida is typically
> a somewhat
> Republican-leaning state. In an
> election that was
> truly even-money, you'd expect
> Mr. Romney to be
> leading in more of the Florida
> polls rather than
> the other way around. Read
> more…
>
>
> August
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 1,
> 2012,
> 10:47
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> AM88
> Comments
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> July
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 31:
> Obama
> Forecast
> Improves
> on
> Data
> Showing
> Faster
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Income
> Growth
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> By
> NATE
>
>
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>
>
>
> SILVER
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
> President
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Obama's
> chances
> of
> winning
> the
> Electoral
> College
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> improved
> slightly
> on
> Tuesday,
> to
> 69.0
> percent
> from
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 66.9
> percent
> one
> day
> earlier,
> according
> to
> the
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> FiveThirtyEight
> forecast
> model.
> The
> change
> was
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
> because
> of
> new
> government
>
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>
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>
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>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
> data
> showing
> faster
> growth
> in
> personal
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> income,
> one
> of
> the
> seven
> economic
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> data
> series
> that
> our
> forecast
> model
> uses.
>
>
>
>
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> The
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>
>
>
>
>
>
> sluggish
> growth
> in
> personal
> income
> —
> it
> was
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> previously
> reported
> as
> having
> increased
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> essentially
> no
> faster
> than
> the
> growth
> rate
> in
> the
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> population
> for
> much
> of
> Mr.
> Obama's
> term
> —
> had
> been
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> one
> of
> the
> better
> reasons
> to
> conclude
> that
> his
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> re-election
> bid
> was
> in
> a
> great
> deal
> of
> trouble.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Measures
> of
> personal
> income
> are
> popular
> in
> the
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> forecast
> models
> of
> elections
> produced
> by
> political
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> scientists
> and
> economists
> —
> in
> part
> because
> they
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> potentially
> do
> a
> good
> job
> of
> measuring
> the
> economy
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> as
> it
> is
> experienced
> by
> voters,
> and
> in
> part
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> because
> the
> correlation
> between
> personal
> income
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> and
> election
> outcomes
> has
> been
> reasonably
> high
> in
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> the
> past.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> There
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> are
> also
> reasons
> to
> be
> wary
> of
> the
> personal
> income
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> data.
> It
> is
> extremely
> noisy,
> for
> instance
> —
> with
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> large
> fluctuations
> from
> month
> to
> month
> and
> from
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> quarter
> to
> quarter
> —
> and
> it
> frequently
> undergoes
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> significant
> revisions.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Tuesday,
> however,
> those
> revisions
> worked
> to
> Mr.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Obama's
> benefit.
> Data
> from
> recent
> previous
> months
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> was
> revised
> upward
> to
> show
> more
> income
> growth.
> And
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
> the
> latest
> of
> the
> data,
> describing
> the
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> income
> growth
> in
> June,
> was
> also
> fairly
> strong.
> Read more…
>
>
>
> On Thu, Aug 2, 2012 at 5:54 AM, Shola Adenekan
> wrote:
> Mwalimu Bangura,
>
> By the way, here is the latest Real Clear Politics'
> electoral map: Obama is at 247 and Romney at 191. The
> toss-up states at the moment are :
>
> http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
>
> Colorado
> (9)
>
>
>
>
> Florida
> (29)
>
>
>
>
> Iowa (6)
>
>
>
>
>
> Nevada (6)
>
>
>
>
>
> New
> Hampshire
> (4)
>
>
>
>
> North
> Carolina
> (15)
>
>
>
>
> Ohio
> (18)
>
>
>
>
> Virginia
> (13)
>
> If Obama wins only Florida out of these 8
> toss-up states, it's over for
> your man Romney!
>
> I look forward to my cow leg come November 7, 2012!
>
> Have a great day!
>
> Olorunshola
>
> On Wed, Aug 1, 2012 at 11:05 PM,
> wrote:> From: "Abdul Bangura"
> Prof.,
> I will remind and hold you to that promise.
> November is nearby.
>
> Adeshina Afolayan Sent from
> my BlackBerry wireless device from
> MTN
> Sender:> ReplyTo:
> usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
> Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2012
> 17:14:20 -0400 To: ;
> usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
> usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
> Cc: leonenet
> To:>
> Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue
> Series - The Real Picture
> My
> Wonderful
> and
> Calm
> Mwalimu
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Jaye
> Gaskia,
> just
> a
> few
> weeks
> ago,
> the
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Electoral
> College
> difference
> was
> more
> then
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 50,
> yes?
> Today,
> it
> is
> about
> 30,
> yes?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Now,
> to
> all
> of
> you
> Obama
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> supporters/Romney
> Haters,
> I
> will
> send
> you
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> a
> whole
> cow,
> with
> all
> four
> legs
> for
> Nija
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> style
> pepper
> soup,
> should
> Romney
> not
> win
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> this
> presidential
> election.
> Let
> me
> know
> to
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> whom
> I
> should
> send
> the
> cow.
> Mark
> my
> words:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Romney
> is
> going
> to
> be
> our
> next
> POTUS
> come
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> November
> 2012.
> So
> it
> is
> written
> and
> so
> it
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> shall
> be
> done.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----
> Original
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Message
> -----
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> From:
> Jaye
> Gaskia
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> To:
> usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Cc:
> leonenet
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Sent:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 8/1/2012
> 2:56:17
> PM
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Subject:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Re:
> USA
> Africa
> Dialogue
> Series
> -
> The
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Real
> Picture
> Dear
> Abdul,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> How
> many
> times
> can
> this
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> once
> huge
> electoral
> colldge
> lead
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> possibly
> have
> evaporated?
> How
> long
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> is
> it
> taking
> to
> evaporate?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Regards,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Jaye
> From:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Abdul
> Karim
> Bangura
>
> "USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com"
> Cc:
> leonenet
> "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola,> Sent:
> Wednesday,
> August 1, 2012 5:30
>
> PM
> Subject:
> USA Africa
> Dialogue Series -
> The
> Real Picture
>
> Obama's
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> once
> huge
> Electoral
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> College
> lead
> is
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> evaporating
> very
> fast,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Pennsylvania
> is
> not
> a
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> swing
> state,
> Romney
> has
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> a
> huge
> lead
> with
> white
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> males
> whites
> comprise
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> about
> 74%
> of
> the
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> population),
> and
> NYT/CBS
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> polls
> include
> those
> who
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> will
> not
> vote.
> Daily
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Presidential
> Tracking
> Poll
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Wednesday,
> August
> 01,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 2012
> The
> Rasmussen
> Reports
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> daily
> Presidential
> Tracking
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Poll
> for
> Wednesday
> shows
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Mitt
> Romney
> attracting
> 47%
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> of
> the
> vote,
> while
> President
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Obama
> earns
> support
> from
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 44%.
> Four
> percent
> (4%)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> prefer
> some
> other
> candidate,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> and
> five
> percent
> (5%)
> are
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> undecided.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Most
> voters
> under
> 40
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> prefer
> Obama
> while
> most
> over
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 40
> support
> Romney.
> The
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> gender
> gap
> is
> alive
> and
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> well.
> Obama
> does
> about
> 14
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> points
> better
> among
> women
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> than
> men.
> Among
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> white
> voters,
> Romney
> leads
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> 56%
> to
> 35%.
>
> Obama
> has
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> an
> overwhelming
> lead
> among
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> black
> voters
> and
> leads
> by
> a
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> two-to-one
> margin
> among
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> other
> minority
> voters.
> All
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> of
> these
> dynamics
> are
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> similar
> to
> Election
> 2008.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> In
> Missouri,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Romney
> leads
> by
> six.
> The
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> state
> is
> rated
> Leans
> Romney
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> in
> the
> Rasmussen
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Reports
> Electoral
> College
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Projections.
> The
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> projections
>
> show
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> that
> Obama
> is
> likely
> to
> win
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> states
> with
> 201
> Electoral
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> College
> Votes
> while
> Romney
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> is
> likely
> to
> win
> in
> states
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> with
> 170.
> Thirteen
> states
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> with
> 167
> Electoral
> College
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Votes
> are
> either
> Toss-Ups
> or
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Leaners.
> --
> --
> You received this message
>
> because you are subscribed to
>
> the "USA-Africa Dialogue
> Series"
> moderated by Toyin
> Falola,
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>
> --
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> at Austin.
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>
> --
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to
> the "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated
> by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at
> Austin.
> For current archives, visit
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>
>
>
> --
> There is enough in the world for everyone's need but not for
> everyone's greed.
>
>
> ---Mohandas Gandhi
> --
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the
> "USA-Africa Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University
> of Texas at Austin.
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> http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
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>
>
>
> -- kenneth w. harrow distinguished professor of english michigan
> state university department of english east lansing, mi 48824-1036
> ph. 517 803 8839 harrow@msu.edu
> --
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa
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>
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>
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There is enough in the world for everyone's need but not for everyone's greed.
---Mohandas Gandhi
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