Thursday, August 2, 2012

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Real Picture

Osagyefo Mwalimu Mensah, you must have missed the reasons I had already stated several times for my reliance solely on the Rasmussen Poll for now. Here they are again:

(a) Rasmussen is a daily tracking poll that deals with those who vote. Other polls include even those who do not vote. Close to election time, those polls will also focus only on actual voters.

(b) Rasmussen Poll tracks actual voters on a daily basis. Others are drawn-out many days polls. Given the fluidity of this election, the other polls are not as reliable.

(c) Rasmussen Poll is the only one that had predicted the exact margins of victories in the past three presidential elections when matched with the actual results from the Electoral Commission, not those that are based on exit polls.

When all of the polls begin to focus on actual voters, then the Real Clear Politics summaries become meaningful.

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