USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: [africanworldforum] This Is Why Australia Hasn't Had a Recession in Over 25 Years - Bloomberg

Ola Kassim:

I have no problem agreeing with your "Sustainable Population Growth Rate" - who would not agree to anything "sustainable?"

What I did not agree with you in the past is your erstwhile AGGRESSIVE/ACTIVE prescription of HOW to achieve that "sustainable population growth rate" - which I presume includes ABSTINENCE, FAMILY PLANNING, DELAYED GRATIFICATION, and in particular a prescription of  ONE CHILD (or TWO CHILDREN) per family etc. - in some kind of ENFORCED manner,including some SANCTIONS?

It is that enforcement that I oppose, particularly when we note the skewed population ranges are towards the most sexually active.

Rather, I believe that all of that sustainable growth can be achieved more passively with UNIVERSAL EDUCATION (both life and work-skills, as well as religious), MASSIVE EMPLOYMENT, etc.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

, 

On Fri, Mar 31, 2017 at 5:43 PM, <olakassimmd@aol.com> wrote:

"EVERY recommendation that we make for our country MUST at the minimum be towards 

(1) putting more of our people to work, 

(2)  increasing our per capita productivity, 

(3)  decreasing our import dependency, 

(4)  increasing our export earnings,

(5)   curbing our government expenditures relative to revenues, and 

(6)  increasing our tax earnings relative to GDP.

Any other tasks are just time-wasting.

And there you have it."----Bolaji Aluko

Bolaji:

Thanks for sharing the statistical comparison between Nigeria--a developing nation

and Australia--a developed nation and a member of the G7 and the G12.

Even though you may object, I am inclined to add a 7th recommendation to the above

list all of which I agree with.

#7: Measures towards achieving a "Sustainable Population Growth Rate"

The comparative age structure between Nigeria and Australia reveals that our age structure is the inverse of that of Australia:

Age Structure

0-14 years: 42.79% (male 40,744,956/female 38,870,303) 15-24 years: 19.48% (male 18,514,466/female 17,729,351) 25-54 years: 30.65% (male 29,259,621/female 27,768,368) 55-64 years: 3.96% (male 3,595,293/female 3,769,986) 65 years and over: 3.12% (male   2,754,040/female 3,047,002) (2016 est.) population pyramid:

0-14 years: 17.84% (male 2,105,433/female 1,997,433) 15-24 years: 12.96% (male 1,528,993/female 1,451,340) 25-54 years: 41.55% (male 4,862,591/female 4,691,975) 55-64 years: 11.82% (male 1,347,780/female 1,369,501) 65 years and over: 15.82% (male 1,684,339/female 1,953,269) (2016 est.) population pyramid:

62% of Nigeria's population is under 25 years of age  of which 48.79% are under 15 years of age versus 31% and 17.89% respectively for the Australians of the same age cohorts.

Population growth rate is a double edged sword in its impact on socioeconomic development.

It has just as much adverse effect on socioeconomic development when it is too low (i.e. when it is lower than the rate that is sufficient to replace the ageing population when they die) as much as it has when it is too high when most of the population are young (below 15 and under 25 years

when they are either unproductive or have not reached their peak productive capacity to contribute sufficiently to economic growth.

Nigeria urgently needs to take measures towards achieving sustainable population growth rate

in addition to other measures including those you listed above and others that are not on the list.

Bye,

Ola

-----Original Message-----
From: Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com>
To: africanworldforum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com>; USAAfrica Dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>; topcrest topcrest <topcrestt@yahoo.com>
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Sent: Fri, Mar 31, 2017 9:52 am
Subject: Re: [africanworldforum] This Is Why Australia Hasn't Had a Recession in Over 25 Years - Bloomberg

Joe Attueyi:

I am always amused when without much reflection you compare Nigeria and some other countries - eg Australia in your latest example - and by implication or by explicit advice imagine that the economic policies that these other countries adopt or adopted at some point AUTOMATICALLY means that Nigeria should adopt them.

I put it to you that adopting quite a number of these policies AS STATED may actually make things worse, not better.

For example, I have put together below for our benefit a table of comparisons between Australia and Nigeria, and highlighted in red some key issues:

TABLE 1:  NIGERIA-AUSTRALIA COMPARISON

 

Source:  cia.gov

 

S/N	Item	Nigeria	Australia
1	Population	186,053,386 note: estimates for this country explicitly take into account the effects of excess mortality due to AIDS; this can result in lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality, higher death rates, lower population growth rates, and changes in the distribution of population by age and sex than would otherwise be expected (July 2016 est.) country comparison to the world: 8	22,992,654 (July 2016 est.)
2	Area	total: 923,768 sq km land: 910,768 sq km water: 13,000 sq km country comparison to the world: 32	total: 7,741,220 sq km land: 7,682,300 sq km water: 58,920 sq km note: includes Lord Howe Island and Macquarie Island country comparison to the world: 6
3	Ethnic Groups	Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, is composed of more than 250 ethnic groups; the most populous and politically influential are: Hausa and the Fulani 29%, Yoruba 21%, Igbo (Ibo) 18%, Ijaw 10%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio 3.5%, Tiv 2.5%	English 25.9%, Australian 25.4%, Irish 7.5%, Scottish 6.4%, Italian 3.3%, German 3.2%, Chinese 3.1%, Indian 1.4%, Greek 1.4%, Dutch 1.2%, other 15.8% (includes Australian aboriginal .5%), unspecified 5.4%
4	Religions	Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10%	Protestant 30.1% (Anglican 17.1%, Uniting Church 5.0%, Presbyterian and Reformed 2.8%, Baptist, 1.6%, Lutheran 1.2%, Pentecostal 1.1%, other Protestant 1.3%), Catholic 25.3% (Roman Catholic 25.1%, other Catholic 0.2%), other Christian 2.9%, Orthodox 2.8%, Buddhist 2.5%, Muslim 2.2%, Hindu 1.3%, other 1.3%, none 22.3%, unspecified 9.3% (2011 est.)
5	Age Structure	0-14 years: 42.79% (male 40,744,956/female 38,870,303) 15-24 years: 19.48% (male 18,514,466/female 17,729,351) 25-54 years: 30.65% (male 29,259,621/female 27,768,368) 55-64 years: 3.96% (male 3,595,293/female 3,769,986) 65 years and over: 3.12% (male 2,754,040/female 3,047,002) (2016 est.) population pyramid:	0-14 years: 17.84% (male 2,105,433/female 1,997,433) 15-24 years: 12.96% (male 1,528,993/female 1,451,340) 25-54 years: 41.55% (male 4,862,591/female 4,691,975) 55-64 years: 11.82% (male 1,347,780/female 1,369,501) 65 years and over: 15.82% (male 1,684,339/female 1,953,269) (2016 est.) population pyramid:
6	Export Commodities	petroleum and petroleum products 95%, cocoa, rubber (2012 est.)	coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, machinery and transport equipment
7	Export $	$33.27 billion (2016 est.) $45.89 billion (2015 est.)	$184.3 billion (2016 est.) $188.3 billion (2015 est.)
8	Import Commodities	machinery, chemicals, transport equipment, manufactured goods, food and live animals	machinery and transport equipment, computers and office machines, telecommunication equipment and parts; crude oil and petroleum products
9	Import $	$36.4 billion (2016 est.) $52.33 billion (2015 est.)	$203.1 billion (2016 est.) $207.7 billion (2015 est.)
10	GDP  - PPP	$1.089 trillion (2016 est.) $1.108 trillion (2015 est.) $1.08 trillion (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars	$1.189 trillion (2016 est.) $1.156 trillion (2015 est.) $1.128 trillion (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars country comparison to the world: 20
11	GDP per capita	$5,900 (2016 est.) $6,200 (2015 est.) $6,200 (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars country comparison to the world: 163	$48,800 (2016 est.) $48,300 (2015 est.) $47,800 (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars country comparison to the world: 26
12	GDP Real Growth	-1.7% (2016 est.) 2.7% (2015 est.) 6.3% (2014 est.) country comparison to the world: 205	2.9% (2016 est.) 2.4% (2015 est.) 2.7% (2014 est.)
13	GDP – Composition by Sector of Origin	agriculture: 21.1% industry: 19.4% services: 59.5% (2016 est.)	agriculture: 3.6% industry: 28.2% services: 68.2% (2016 est.)
14	Labor Force	58.8 million (2016 est.)	12.63 million (2016 est.) country comparison to the world: 45
15	Labor Force by occupation	agriculture: 70% industry: 10% services: 20% (1999 est.)	agriculture: 3.6% industry: 21.1% services: 75.3% (2009 est.)
16	Unemployment Rate	23.9% (2011 est.) 4.9% (2011 est.)	5.8% (2016 est.) 6.1% (2015 est.)
17	Budget	revenues: $11.4 billion expenditures: $21.21 billion (2016 est.)	revenues: $420.5 billion expenditures: $446.4 billion (2016 est)
18	Taxes and other revenues	2.7% of GDP (2016 est.) country comparison to the world: 217	33.5% of GDP (2016 est.)
19	Reserves of Foreign Exchange and Gold	$23.47 billion (31 December 2016 est.) $29.07 billion (31 December 2015 est.)	$54.3 billion (31 December 2016 est.) $49.27 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
20	Debt - External	$39.1 billion (31 December 2016 est.) $32.27 billion (31 December 2015 est.) country comparison to the world: 71	$1.692 trillion (31 December 2016 est.) $1.524 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
21	Exchange Rates	Nigerian nairas (NGN) per US dollar - 246.2 (2016 est.) 192.73 (2015 est.) 192.73 (2014 est.) 158.55 (2013 est.) 156.81 (2012 est.)	Australian dollars (AUD) per US dollar - 1.352 (2016 est.) 1.3291 (2015 est.) 1.3291 (2014 est.) 1.1094 (2013 est.) 0.97 (2012 est.)

 

First, Nigeria is about eight-and-a-half times the population of Australia and at the same time, about eight times LESS in size than Australia - with whatever the consequences of those facts.  The age structure of Nigeria is heavily skewed towards the young (and unproductive) ages, compared with Australia, which means that the dependency ratio of Nigeria is greater.  Nigeria is monocultural, with Australia being more diversified, with export earnings of Australia is six times that of Nigeria.  The labor force structure of Nigeria is inverse of that of Australia.  All of that may have led to a GDP per capita of Australia which is eight times of Nigeria, with Nigeria's GDP dwindling while Australia's own remained steady.  Very instructively, while Australia's budget revenue is about forty times that of Nigeria, its budget expenditure is only twenty times that of Nigeria, implying that Australia's government is more frugal.  As percentage of GDP, Australia collects over ten times more taxes than Nigeria.  But note that while Australia's foreign reserves is barely twice that of Nigeria, its foreign debt is about four hundred times that of Nigeria, while its exchange rate since 2012 has experience similar battering like Nigeria's.

What I am indicating is that it is FACILE for you to just merely throw out what Australia has done since 1983, and then retreat.  

EVERY recommendation that we make for our country MUST at the minimum be towards 

(1) putting more of our people to work, 

(2)  increasing our per capita productivity, 

(3)  decreasing our import dependency, 

(4)  increasing our export earnings,

(5)   curbing our government expenditures relative to revenues, and 

(6)  increasing our tax earnings relative to GDP.

Any other tasks are just time-wasting.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

On Fri, Mar 31, 2017 at 12:55 PM, 'Joe Attueyi' via AfricanWorldForum <africanworldforum@googlegroups.com> wrote:

"....It was very different almost 30 years ago. Australia was a basket case, with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew warning it risked becoming "the poor white trash of Asia." 

A 17-year stretch of reform driven by Labor titans Bob Hawke and Paul Keating ensued. Starting with the currency's free float in 1983, it included financial deregulation, tax reform, slashing tariffs, ending centralized wage fixing and creating a private pension system. When Labor lost office in 1996, Liberal leader John Howard took up the cudgels, making the RBA officially independent, returning the budget to surplus and liberalizing labor laws. The introduction of a goods and services tax in 2000 was the last major successful reform. ..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/as-australia-eyes-victory-on-growth-its-spoils-look-bittersweet?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Sent from my iPhone

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