Sunday, January 29, 2023

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

Okey:

Why not raise the issues and let us debate?

TF

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Okey Iheduru <okeyiheduru@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 1:19 PM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

Nigeria's "intellectual" class; or, is it the "intelligentsia"! Not one serious engagement with the issues raised in Prof. Ochonu's article. Instead, we see distractions that betray the usual salivating for impending ethno-class harvest. It's 2015 (twenty-fifteen) 2.0!

 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 11:56 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyeniyib@gmail.com> wrote:

Dr. Ochonu,

Thank you for your response. TF has said it all.

 

Clearly, you are not saying that whatever you said with respect to the North is the gospel truth. 

 

Thank you for the education. 

 

Bukola

 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023, 12:06 PM Folami Kolade <kollyjoe2002@gmail.com> wrote:

Sir, without holding a brief for Professor Ochonu, I am responding to the issue of the 5.00 dollar egg in Walmart. For me, it is not the same as the Nigerian economic crises. I left Nigeria for the US in 2021. In 2021 the price of a crate of eggs in Nigeria was 800 naira. At that time a dollar was exchanged for naira @ around 400. That is 2 dollars per crate. I could not afford to buy a crate per month because as a teacher, all I earned per month was less than 200 dollars. But here in the US as a TA, the egg  @ 5.00 $ per crate is highly affordable for me and I buy it regularly. So the comparison is unfair here. I saw the same thing in your article, criticizing Kunle Afolayan's 'Anikulapo' by comparing it to the big budget and Hollywood-sponsored "Woman King". These are unfair comparisons, sir. 

 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyeniyib@gmail.com> wrote:

Dr. Ochonu,

 

Permit me to learn more from you and consequently educate myself by your answers to the following questions.

 

1. Has the election been conducted? If so,  who won? If not, how did you know that Tinubu has lost the election?

 

2. You noted that Buhari failed without as much as itemizing the indicators with which you arrive at your conclusions. 

 

Yes, I know that Nigeria's economy is moribund and insecurity is at its highest levels, however, economic crisis is commonplace, even in advanced democracy. I was at Walmart just yesterday night and a crate of egg sold for 5.00 USD. 

 

3. I am not a northerner and therefore cannot speak to the acceptance or otherwise of Buhari across the north. 

 

Sir, I do not think social media is also a barometer to gauge Buhari's or anyone's acceptance, especially in Nigeria. How then do you come to the conclusion that Northern youths have dumped Buhari?

 

Thank you for your time. 

 

Bukola

 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023, 10:49 AM Toyin Falola <toyinfalola@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

Has he lost the election?

 

From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ebe Ochonu <meochonu@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 10:15 AM
To: USAAfricaDialogue <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

 

BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

Moses E. Ochonu

 

Tinubu's strategy from the very beginning was wrong. Perhaps it was a product of his arrogant entitlement ideology of emi lokan (it's my turn).

 

He wrote off the Southeast and South-south and put all his proverbial eggs in the northern basket. He went all in, gambling that the north would deliver for him and that, combined with the southwestern vote, that would give him the presidency.

 

It was always a risky electoral strategy. Firstly, it overly relies on the support of APC governors and other APC stakeholders in the north. It overestimates the political capital of the APC governors and stakeholders in the region, given Buhari/APC's woeful performance and its discrediting effect on everyone associated with the party.

 

Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him. That, unfortunately for him, has been made quite difficult by the advent of BVAS and electronic vote transmission. 

 

The Osun ruling from yesterday is a further disincentive for rigging since any serious discrepancy between declared votes and the number of BVAS-accredited voters will render a victory invalid. Politicians may be more less inclined to rig considering yesterday's judgment that hinged on over-voting.

 

Secondly, BAT's strategy overly relied on hitching himself to Buhari. That strategy was flawed last year and is even more flawed today. It overestimates the extent to which Buhari still holds sway over the Northern masses. 

Conversely, it underestimates or even ignores the anger and opposition towards Buhari and APC at the Northern political grassroots, a resentment borne out of the catastrophic failure of Buhari in the North in particular. The resulting disappointment runs deep.

 

This is 2023, not 2015. I often shake my head when I read Southwestern political analysts and pundits, including Tinubu's people, talk about Buhari's cult-like following in the north. Even in January 2023, I still hear and read that outdated claim. It was true in 2015. It is now pure fiction.

 

Not only is that narrative not true today, but the northern masses have in fact turned decisively against Buhari/APC. The cult-like adulation of 2015 has transformed into an implacable angst against Buhari/APC. Tinubu is using the political reality, language, and rhetoric of 2015 to campaign in 2022/23. His strategists have completely missed the recent radical shift in the political mood of the northern electorate.

 

And so, Tinubu and his strategists continue to believe that pandering to Buhari, professing love for him, and drawing ever closer to him would translate to votes in the north. That wrong prognosis is what is informing their strategy.

 

The interesting thing is that Tinubu, in his Ogun state rally speech, seemed to have inadvertently thrown off the yoke of his inexplicable loyalty to Buhari, a bromance or pretended political bromance that is now an electoral liability in the region that holds the key to his victory--the north.

 

When he blamed Buhari and the cabal for sabotaging his campaign, he was finally finding his own voice and separating himself from his burdensome and increasingly costly embrace of Buhari. 

 

Even if this was not what he intended, strategically, it was a good thing for him. It would enable him to ditch his counterproductive over-reliance on Buhari and the APC northern elite and give him a rhetorical platform to appeal directly to northern voters by demonstrating to them that he is his own man, is not beholden to Buhari and APC, their tormentors in the last seven years, and that were he to win, he would move in a different direction.

 

Did Buhari stay the course in this new independent path that could help him? No. Instead he and his aides have, for 48 hours straight, been kissing and making up with Buhari. They've been mollifying Buhari. They're backtracking and restating Tinubu's admiration for Buhari and his commitment to their friendship.

 

More egregiously, they've been repeating Tinubu's ill-advised and losing rhetoric that he would continue with Buhari's achievements and policies if elected.

 

His Ogun State speech gave him a golden opportunity to finally break away from the losing message of wanting to continue from where Buhari stops, but instead of sticking with the newly minted anti-Buhari rhetoric, he and his handlers went right back to the failing messaging of wanting to be Buhari 2.0.

 

They continue to gamble foolishly on Buhari's eroded political goodwill in the north and the largely impotent support of northern APC political leaders while neglecting the critical task of appealing to and changing the minds of an increasingly anti-APC northern electorate.

 

Even if Buhari was still popular in the north, Buhari's refusal to directly boost Tinubu or campaign for him in the north should have taught Tinubu a lesson: that kissing up to Buhari is a losing strategy even in the north. In 2023.

 

Some may argue that Tinubu has no choice but to cling to Buhari and that, given his gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges, this is his only remaining card to play even if it's fraught with risk and is proving detrimental. 

 

I don't agree. If unfavorable electoral dynamics and political events compel you to gamble, the most reasonable gamble is to separate yourself from a failed president and hope that it helps you with an electorate disillusioned with that president.

 

 

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