Dr. Kassim,
In EVERYWHERE in the world, visionary and capble leadership ALWAYS makes the difference; in fact, the majority of the people JUST FOLLOW and this is validated by the fact of history that the people have ALWAYS rooted for and follow the bad and the good that leadership produces. And this is why Good Leadership will ALWAYS make a difference; good leadership sees the need for mass awareness and enlightenment, and its value to society; in turn, societal and people's awareness and education can influence leadership; but the ability of the leadership to shape society and people's attitudes and society is UNQUESTIONABLE! In America, they say: State's (leadership) ways determines folks (people's) ways. So we cannot escape the wisdom words of US Pres Truman, that in periods where there is no leadership, society stands still. Progress occurs when courageous, skillful leaders seize the opportunity to change things for the better.
Similary, in era of poor, visionless and inept leadership, society is misruled, priorities are misarranged, and societal progress regresses or is limited. We CANT ignore this REALITY in the Nigerian State.
Barka De Sallah! I was just told that this is not the Sallah for ram consumption, so I am thinking of what to do for dinner today. Take care. JUI
From: olakassimmd@aol.com [mailto:olakassimmd@aol.com]
Sent: Sat 11-Sep-10 2:19 PM
To: Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCPDCID); NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; nidoa@yahoogrouops.com; NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: JUI: Buska Mentality & Nigerians-- Population problems are imaginary
Joe:
Your position and mine are not that far apart.
I also fully recognize the importance of visionary
and selfless leadership in moving things forward
in Nigeria or anywhere else in the world.
The only additional point that I bring into the equation,
which you and others probably have issues with is the fact
that an enlightened citizenry is also just as important
for successful nation building as is good leadership..
Let us use your first imagined scenario--which finds Nigerians moving to Germany and
Germans moving to the geographical area of the world occupied by today's
Nigeria.
What would happen when the best and most visionary Nigerian leaders
decide it is time for the populace to move to Germany? The chances
are that the visionary leaders will only take with them to Germany
the minority of the enlightened population who can foresee the advantages
to be gained in the exodus--while the rest of the population would insist
on staying put in the land in which they were born, even if an earthquake
of the order of 12 on the Richter's scale was imminent (may God forbid such
a scenario in Nigeria.) And Yeye, half educated leaders like IBK would
keep on encouraging them--with exhortations that "this is our native land, nothing
can happen to us here; our forefathers fought some earthquakes and natural
disasters in the past and similar inanities--even those who died were
replaced when the people started rearing more and more children."--An idiotic
notion to say the least!
We need both--visionary and selfless leaders as well as majority population
composed of enlightened and well educated people to move Nigeria forward.
This is the reason politicians hold public constitutions before they make
major decisions on any set of issues. The collective wisdom and wishes of the populace
is hat make the best leaders thrive in their jobs, just as good leaders also motivate
is hat make the best leaders thrive in their jobs, just as good leaders also motivate
the people to move in the direction that is in the overall positive interest
of the society.
The best leaders in the world are those who are able to recognize the needs
of their people and the direction in which they want to move and then
lead them to their destination.
Wishing you and your family a great weekend!
Bye,
Ola
-----Original Message-----
From: Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCPDCID) <jbi8@cdc.gov>
Sent: Sat, Sep 11, 2010 11:06 am
Subject: NIDOA | Buska Mentality & Nigerians-- Population problems are imaginary
From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com on behalf of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Sat 11-Sep-10 7:53 AM
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; nidoa@yahoogrouops.com; NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] Buska Mentality & Nigerians-- Population problems are imaginary
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From: Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCPDCID) <jbi8@cdc.gov>
Sent: Sat, Sep 11, 2010 11:06 am
Subject: NIDOA | Buska Mentality & Nigerians-- Population problems are imaginary
Dr Kassim,
There is a popular illustration of the point being made by those on this aisle: it posited the if you take all Nigerians and relocate them in present day Germany and remove the Germans, such that Nigerian live and manage the affairs of the German nation, within 10 years dysfunctionality and disorder will besiege Germany and she will be run down to a shadow of herself; however, if you take Germans and relocate them to today's Nigeria, the nation will become Dubai within just 15 YEARS!
If you evaluate the significance of this example, you'll find that the SINGLE superior element that the Germans will bring into Nigeria is better management/leadership vision; Germans and Nigerians are equally intelligent and hardworking as human beings. The major element Nigerians will take to Germany is visionless leadership, leadership ineptitude and poor management. In fact, if you think about it well, this is why Nigerians can excel in other societies that are better managed and well led but the same Nigerians do poorly in Nigeria.
Any attempt to minimize the significance of leadership in people's and societal progress is grossly MISLEADING and truly distracting. In the apt words of US President Harry Truman: ""In periods where there is no leadership, society stands still. Progress occurs when courageous, skillful leaders seize the opportunity to change things for the better.”
Perhaps a better illustration of your current position that may hit home is to imagine a situation whereby people are engrossed in the effort to curtail excessive occurrence of certain natural events (e.g., rain/flooding, sunlight, etc) because of the fear of what they people these events would cause to humanity and society; the choices available to the people are: first, see these events as a menace and burden to society and so focus on their upstream causes (e.g., evaporation from the seas/oceans that condence as rainfall, or the blazes from the Sun that reach the earth as sunlight etc), as the quick and convenient solution to the problem; second, see these events as excess resources to be managed, and so take practical steps to innovatively and creatively channel the available (excess) sunlight and water into other uses, such as irrigation/agriculture, and en ergy/water sources for everyday comfortable living, while prudently controling any undesirable downstream effects, by building shelters, avoiding flood/hot zones, etc. It is a fact that the latter approach will tap into the ingenuity of the people, including their leadership and management abilities and that is the mission of humanity on earth; however, the former approach will be merely an inept avoidance, lazy and convenient strategy that wont take the people anywhere.
Finally, in tune with the new outlook eloquently presented by Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola, we must begin to see human beings as a vital societal resource, that cannot be viewed as overwhelming when the population is increasing, but should be viewed as increasing resource that should be harnessed and utilized to advance society in several other areas. Take care. JUI
From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com on behalf of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Sat 11-Sep-10 7:53 AM
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; nidoa@yahoogrouops.com; NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] Buska Mentality & Nigerians-- Population problems are imaginary
"In Nigeria, we are at the opposite extreme but with the same results. Teen population grows, but must also depend on the productive segment. What do we do now? We must control birthrate, then use the resources to improve the standard of living by providing basic amenities, industrialization and jobs. When the productive segment dies away, it is difficult to sustain a healthy population distribution, where generational percentages are maintained. It is akin to the law of diminishing returns in economics."---Dr. O. B. Jack
Dr Jack:
I couldn't agree with you more!
But wait till you hear from the "more children is better crowd", who believe it is
still okay in 2011 for a woman to have 10 to 12 children in her life time as long
as she gets to keep 5 or 6 of them, having lost the rest to a host of neonatal diseases
such as gastroenteritis, chollera,dysentry, kwashiorkor, malaria, marasmus, meningitiis etc.
Their only retort to any problem in Nigeria is better governance; better governance
and more better governance and if not that better leadership and better leadership.
Listening to these guys one could easily believe that only the leaders have problems
in Nigeria and that the leaders could either be from abroad or that they are aliens.
The reality however is that even the most visionary, wholesome and honest leaders
can only do the best they can with the resources that are available to them, which
in the case of Nigeria, compared to the rest of the world is limited considering
the huge population requiring services. Put more bluntly, even if this idea sometimes ends
some Nigerians into a depressive state--Nigeria remains a poor country notwithstanding
our abundant natural resources. We consume without producing any value added products.
We are like descendants of some departed rich landlords living on rent collected from rapidly
depreciating and crumbling commercial and residential buildings that are begging for maintenance.
But how could even the most competent and honest leaders at the helm
of the best performing government in Nigeria overcome the built in human
resource deficits (which an uneducated and unproductive surplus population
is even if they are in the tens of millions) within the scope of one, two or even
4 years?
Why keep on adding to the burden to be shouldered by the would be God sent , all knowing
leader by adding more children to the population that you are aware you are
unable to look after considering your current and anticipated future resources --barring
your winning the multi-million dollar jackpot when the babies are born?
How would a Gov Idowu tackle youth employment in his state in his first two years
in office, when he would probably have inherited upon resumption of office state financial
accounts that are near zero or in the deficit and the monthly dole from Abuja
is barely sufficient to pay the salaries of the legislators and the civil servants
after deducting the security vote?.
Let the proponents of the idea that good leadership alone will solve Nigeria's
population without the citizens doing their share tell us how they would
start getting the almost 25 million 20 to 25 year old cohort in Nigeria,
including the educated, the half educated and stark illiterates to work
immediately? And how they would provide for the children some of these unemployed youths are
already bringing to the world?
Notwithstanding their kleptomanic tendencies, I doubt if all the current state
governors are that wicked or ignorant and totally bereft of ideas that they would leave
so many youths unemployed knowing fully well that an unemployed
youthful population is one that is more likely to resort to criminality--
like kidnapping, armed robbery and so on? Do they really have enough resources
to achieve all that needs to be done in Nigeria?
The first step in solving a problem is to acknowledge that you do have a problem.
Most Nigerians including suppossedly educated ones do not believe they have
a population problem as long as they are able to look after their own immediate families.
They unwittingly consider a large population of millions of uneducated and unemployed youths
as positive assets to the society, then wonder about who those night marauders
who break into their houses in the middle of the night carrying guns are?
But who looks after the rest of the children who do not have the same opportunities as the children
of the elites?
The result of our failure in Nigeria to address our problems in
a timely manner is that we end up getting half educated and sometime stark illiterates
like the Buskas--the bad sons and daughters of useless fathers running for offices and sometimes wanting
wanting to the Council Chairmpersons and occassionally even aspring to be state
governors!
I repeat the Buskas are the ones destroying Nigeria!
Bye,
Ola
-----Original Message-----
From: Dr. Omubo Jack <omubo@pacbell.net>
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com <NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Fri, Sep 10, 2010 9:55 pm
Subject: Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: Population problems are imaginary
From: Dr. Omubo Jack <omubo@pacbell.net>
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com <NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Fri, Sep 10, 2010 9:55 pm
Subject: Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: Population problems are imaginary
In advanced societies, the population problems come from the continuous growth of the older segment of the society, that must depend on the productive segment. To balance up the disparity, countries allow, and sometimes encourage migration of younger population. In Nigeria, we are at the opposite extreme but with the same results. Teen population grows, but must also depend on the productive segment. What do we do now? We must control birthrate, then use the resources to improve the standard of living by providing basic amenities, industrialization and jobs. When the productive segment dies away, it is difficult to sustain a healthy population distribution, where generational percentages are maintained. It is akin to the law of diminishing returns in economics.
Dr. O. B. Jack
Sent from my iPad
Sent from my iPad
Dr. Jack:There is no population problem in Nigeria, what Nigeria has is population mismanagement. Based on the population of teens that you identified as out of control, what is your solution to that? Selectively kill teenagers? The reason why Nigeria is in the current doldrum is because most Nigerian leaders see issues from the prism of disadvantage instead of advantages and how to manage it to the benefit of the country. Nigeria needs population management and not control.Idowu
"Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God." --Thomas Jeffersonrate
"There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel
From: Dr. Omubo Jack <omubo@pacbell.net>
To: "NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com" <NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Fri, September 10, 2010 8:08:28 PM
Subject: Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: Population problems are imaginary
Population problems are not imaginary in a country where the average lifespan is 46 years. When a population is mostly made of teens that are unproductive, then there is a problem. In Nigeria, there is definitely population problems.Dr. O. B. Jack
Sent from my iPadOnly an indolent nation will complain about population growth. As tiny as Japan is in terms of natural resources and land mass, look at the industrial and economic miracle they made out of what is available to them. They are no more growing in population and look at the many economic problems that phenomenum is giving them. A nation that has it's head well screwed on it's neck would consider it's population a blessing and harness it for it's social and economic progress. After years of misguidance, the Chinese have recognised that their population is an advantage and they are harnessing it.
Modupe
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; OlaKassimMD@aol.com; idowubobo@yahoo.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com
CC: afenmai@yahoogroups.com; NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
From: jbi8@cdc.gov
Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:29:23 -0400
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: Population problems are imaginary
“””…whoever that indulges bulges. ….”””Unquote Prof Prince KC Asagwara.My Brother Prince KC, you got terms! Take care. JUI (imagining the tortuous or comfortable link between indulging and bulging!)From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Asagwara, Ken (EDU-ECY)
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2010 6:21 PM
To: OlaKassimMD@aol.com; idowubobo@yahoo.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; ibk@usa.net
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: NIDOA | Population problems are imaginary“The only ways by which a nation population can be controlled…are education and empowerment of women and gainful employment.” IdowuIdowu:So, educated and empowered women with gainful employment do not indulge?My Bro, whoever that indulges bulges.Did the holy book not say to indulge and multiply? LOL!Cheers.KC Prince Asagwara
From: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NIDOA@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2010 9:53 AM
To: idowubobo@yahoo.com; OlaKassimMD@aol.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com; ibk@usa.net
Subject: Re: NIDOA | Population problems are imaginaryQuote:"Ola:So we should start forced abortion in Nigeria or give all the children rat poison immediately they are born. Imprisoned any parent that have more than 1 child.The only ways by which a nation population can be controlled with the exception of the draconian methods suggested above are education and empowerment of women and gainful employment. No amount of your education of "e fe to so omo bibi" will work. It has never worked anywhere and I do not know how it will work in Nigerian male chauvinistic culture."--- IdowuUnQuote
ID:I am sure you are aware that I am unlikely to ever recommend the kind of draconian measures you have suggested in your responseas it would amount to playing God.But there are simple things we can do:a) educate the girls so that they can stay in school longer, as you mentioned, so that marriages are delayed.b) unlike you I believe that some education with increased access to family planning clinics will also help maintainthe population at a more sustainable level than it is now.There is nothing wrong with letting the masses know what the elites already know-i.e. that it is helpful tolimit the number of children they have to the number they can afford to adequately raise.And that the idea that every human being should bring into the world as many number of children as theywish in the belief that only the Almighty God can look after the children is founded on ignorance and encouragedby immoral people like IBK, who despite their education and marital status finds nothing wrong with sowing their seeds with the help ofas many women as they can find.It is wrong to accept the fact that Nigeria men are chauvinistic as an appropriate excuse to let them off the hookfor their own responsibility on family planning issues.Bye,Ola------ Original Message ------
Received: 12:55 AM EAT, 09/10/2010
From: idowu <idowubobo@yahoo.com>
To: OlaKassimMD@aol.com, ibk@usa.net, NIDOA@yahoogroups.com, NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com, NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com, omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [OmoOdua] Re: NIDOA | Population problems are imaginary"It is wishful thinking to assume that things are suddenly going to change in Nigeriaeven with divined governance in such a dramatic manner that we would be ableto erase in a few years the human resource deficit--due to lack of proper education,healthcare and other badly needed services and infrastructure that we have accumulated in a few years."-OlaOla:So we should start forced abortion in Nigeria or give all the children rat poison immediately they are born. Imprisoned any parent that have more than 1 child.The only ways by which a nation population can be controlled with the exception of the draconian methods suggested above are education and empowerment of women and gainful employment. No amount of your education of "e fe to so omo bibi" will work. It has never worked anywhere and I do not know how it will work in Nigerian male chauvinistic culture.
Idowu
"Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God." --Thomas Jefferson"There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel
From: "OlaKassimMD@aol.com" <OlaKassimMD@aol.com>
To: ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thu, September 9, 2010 4:46:53 PM
Subject: NIDOA | Population problems are imaginary
IBK:Thompson Ayodele, a co-author of the referenced article is well known to me.I respect his views just as he respects mine. We agree on manyissues while we disagree on a few--the population issue being one.This is the reason he forwarded a copy of the published article to me.I have already arguedd against many of the points raised in Mr Ayodele'sco-authored published response to the British study which raisedsome concerns over the unsustainable rate of growth of the populationin Nigeria and in most sub-Saharan African countries.While a large healthy population comprised mostly of your adults might begood for the national economy, the reverse is the case when the governemnthas consistently failed to provide the necessary conducive envronmentto generate such a healthy and well educated young work force.It is wishful thinking to assume that things are suddenly going to change in Nigeriaeven with divined governance in such a dramtic manner that we would be ableto erase in a few years the human resource deficit--due to lack of proper education,healthcare and other badly needed services and infrastructure that we have accumulated in a few years.We can not keep on producing more and more children when we have not providedenough class rooms in primary and secondary schools for those who were born5 or 12 years ago and when the majority of our 25 year olds both educated and uneducatedones remain jobless 5 , 10 or more years after graduation.A country in which university graduates operate Okada to make a living is not onethat should turn a blind eye on the need for proper family planning.A country in which a vast majority of her peoples live below the poverty line isnot one that should continue to breed indiscriminately in and out of wedlockMr Ayodele's co-authored article premises all the presumed advantages of uncheckedpopulation growth on the existence of proper governance under good, fortright and visionary and unsustainableleaders--the absence of which is the same Achille's heel that has been the bane of Nigeria post independence.The position being espoused is one that can be easily compared to someone going onshopping spree on a credit card without limit, in the belief that he or she would winthe multi-million dollar jackpot the following week.Failure to plan is planning to fail! Human beings have a higher calling than our cousinsthe apes and other animals. We do not need to ieave everything to nature!Family planning is a good thing!Knowingly having children you cannot care for is a moral SIN in nation without an adequate welfaresystem.Bye,OlaNB:IBK---Learn a little bit of decorum from Mr Ayodele and others.You can disagree with me without being abusive.-----Original Message-----
From: Ibukunolu Alao Babajide <ibk@usa.net>
To: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com; OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 4:31 pm
Subject: Re: [OmoOdua] Fwd: Population problems are imaginaryOla Kassim,You are brave to post this article that puts the scalpel through the thin membrane of your own position on the population debate. Now what sayeth thee to this?Give us another long prolix post on the issue.IBK------ Original Message ------
Received: 10:29 PM EAT, 09/09/2010
From: OlaKassimMD@aol.com
To: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com, NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com, NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com, omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [OmoOdua] Fwd: Population problems are imaginaryThis is published in today's Punch and Guardian Newspapers: "Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally." http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22528:ayodele-and-sotola-population-problems-are-imaginary&catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615 Population problems are imaginaryBy Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola Thursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - Columnists A recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on the edge of a demographic disaster. This warning is based on the bludgeoning population in which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The report consequently argues that the present population is out of balance and it may spell doom as it increases to 213 million by 2050. For the past three decades, there have been debates whether there is a link between population and economic growth. The argument has been that increased population retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous. It merely draws attention away from the real barriers to economic growth. There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief regarding the so-called population problem. At the centre of population policy is whether individuals themselves or politicians or national and international civil servantsshould decide the number of kids parents should have. However, an increase in population is an impetus for growth. The pattern of population growth in Nigeria in the last two decades does not indicate that an increase in population will lead to demographic disaster. Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from 88 million to 150 million, an increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about 70 per cent in 17 years did not have demographic effect, then the argument that demographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the population climbs to 213 million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems not to hold water. On the contrary, the problem is not too many people but lack of economic freedom. Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with increased in population is largely misplaced. In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria population indicates the likelihood of a decline. The population increased by over 70 percent between 1991 and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42 per cent in 44 years. Since the present day Nigeria society seems to consider large family undesirable, the likelihood of a decreased in population beyond 2050 is higher. The impression being created by the report is that Nigeria is overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, of course, is absolutely misleading. Contrary to this, research has shown that the more the people, the more the prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and innovative people in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries. Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparsely populated countryside. It may interest us to know that famine and starvation has occurred in sparsely populated countries than densely populated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his publications, argues that less people don’t actually bring about economicgrowth. He rhetorically asks: why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few thousands on the planet? Globally, highly populated countries are important to the world economy. They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship and exchange of goods and services. The key factor that attracts and retains Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria is not the nature of our political system but the depth and size of the market. The astronomical growth in the Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially driven by demand which is a function of the population. Because small countries produce and consume only very few items and suffer from scale diseconomies, they are largely unattractive for big investment except when they have natural endowments. The implication of reduced population in economic term is on entrepreneurship and economic development. This will limit the market prospects for future products.Increased in the number of newborns alone can stimulate the economy. They can create market for some set of goods which interlink with the whole economy. More importantly, they grow up into productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the country against external aggression and care for the elderly. A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries policies that aimed at artificially controlling population will undermine both quantitative and qualitative global development. Apart from making the world underachieve its full potentials, it will create demographic problems. In China, there are now 32 million more male than female under the age of 20, sex selective abortion account for almost all the excess. China also has high rate of abandonment and infanticide of girl child. The beliefs that high population density breads poverty flew in the face of facts. If population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong should be thepoorest parts of the world today. These are areas with high population density but highly prosperous despite limited landmass. Population growth might cause short-term losses in term of cost but it is bound to yield long-term gains. In other words, the long-term benefits of high population far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as said by Beisner “over their lifetimes, people tend to produce more than they consume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up to increase the wealth and value of the society. Little wonder production has consistently outgrown population. Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed economies are at present promoting population growth. This is noticeable in some Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries where policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageing population. A perfect example is Australia. Since May 2004 Australia governmenthas announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial A$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one baby for your husband and one for your wife and one for the country. The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus for stay-at-home mothers if the coalition wins the federal election. In June, Australia Senate passed a bill which will pay all parents who stay home the minimum wage of $570 a week for 18 weeks. These measures are aimed at encouraging families to have more children. It is incontrovertible that human beings are the ultimate resource. Other resources are useless without human innovation and exertion. An increase human’s number should therefore not be viewed as a disaster. The population problem is a bogeyman. It prevents us from seeing human beings as the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high population encourage people to think that people are a burden who are incapable ofchanging their economic conditions without government help. However, the truth remains that government is the big problem. It is government policies which hinder wealth creation that are keeping the people poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally. Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication associated with arbitrary population control. Policy makers ought not see population growth as a problem. Rather we should picture 150 million human brains daily striving to improve their situations, solve economic problems and above all create wealth. The projected 213 million people will be doing so in 2050. *Ayodele and Sotola are with theInitiative for Public Policy Analysis, an independent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.-----Original Message-----
From: Thompson Ayodele <thompson@ippanigeria.org>
To: olakassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 12:49 pm
Subject: Population problems are imaginaryThis is published in today's Punch and Guardian Newspapers: "Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally." http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22528:ayodele-and-sotola-population-problems-are-imaginary& amp;catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615 Population problems are imaginary By Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola Thursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - Columnists A recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on the edge of a demographic disaster. This warning is based on the bludgeoning population in which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The report consequently argues that the present population is out of balance and it may spell doom as it increases to 213 million by 2050. For the past three decades, there have been debates whether there is a link between population and economic growth. The argument has been that increased population retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous. It merely draws attention away fromthe real barriers to economic growth. There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief regarding the so-called population problem. At the centre of population policy is whether individuals themselves or politicians or national and international civil servants should decide the number of kids parents should have. However, an increase in population is an impetus for growth. The pattern of population growth in Nigeria in the last two decades does not indicate that an increase in population will lead to demographic disaster. Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from 88 million to 150 million, an increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about 70 per cent in 17 years did not have demographic effect, then the argument that demographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the population climbs to 213 million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems not to hold water. On the contrary, the problem is not too many peoplebut lack of economic freedom. Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with increased in population is largely misplaced. In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria population indicates the likelihood of a decline. The population increased by over 70 per cent between 1991 and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42 per cent in 44 years. Since the present day Nigeria society seems to consider large family undesirable, the likelihood of a decreased in population beyond 2050 is higher. The impression being created by the report is that Nigeria is overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, of course, is absolutely misleading. Contrary to this, research has shown that the more the people, the more the prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and innovative people in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries. Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparselypopulated countryside. It may interest us to know that famine and starvation has occurred in sparsely populated countries than densely populated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his publications, argues that less people don’t actually bring about economic growth. He rhetorically asks: why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few thousands on the planet? Globally, highly populated countries are important to the world economy. They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship and exchange of goods and services. The key factor that attracts and retains Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria is not the nature of our political system but the depth and size of the market. The astronomical growth in the Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially driven by demand which is a function of the population. Because small countries produce and consume only very few items and suffer from scale diseconomies,they are largely unattractive for big investment except when they have natural endowments. The implication of reduced population in economic term is on entrepreneurship and economic development. This will limit the market prospects for future products. Increased in the number of newborns alone can stimulate the economy. They can create market for some set of goods which interlink with the whole economy. More importantly, they grow up into productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the country against external aggression and care for the elderly. A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries policies that aimed at artificially controlling population will undermine both quantitative and qualitative global development. Apart from making the world underachieve its full potentials, it will create demographic problems. In China, there are now 32 million more male than female under the age of 20, sex selective abortion account foralmost all the excess. China also has high rate of abandonment and infanticide of girl child. The beliefs that high population density breads poverty flew in the face of facts. If population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong should be the poorest parts of the world today. These are areas with high population density but highly prosperous despite limited landmass. Population growth might cause short-term losses in term of cost but it is bound to yield long-term gains. In other words, the long-term benefits of high population far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as said by Beisner “over their lifetimes, people tend to produce more than they consume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up to increase the wealth and value of the society. Little wonder production has consistently outgrown population. Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed economies are at present promoting population growth.This is noticeable in some Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries where policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageing population. A perfect example is Australia. Since May 2004 Australia government has announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial A$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one baby for your husband and one for your wife and one for the country. The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus for stay-at-home mothers if the coalition wins the federal election. In June, Australia Senate passed a bill which will pay all parents who stay home the minimum wage of $570 a week for 18 weeks. These measures are aimed at encouraging families to have more children. It is incontrovertible that human beings are the ultimate resource. Other resources are useless without human innovation and exertion. An increase human’s number shouldtherefore not be viewed as a disaster. The population problem is a bogeyman. It prevents us from seeing human beings as the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high population encourage people to think that people are a burden who are incapable of changing their economic conditions without government help. However, the truth remains that government is the big problem. It is government policies which hinder wealth creation that are keeping the people poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally. Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication associated with arbitrary population control. Policy makers ought not see population growth as aproblem. Rather we should picture 150 million human brains daily striving to improve their situations, solve economic problems and above all create wealth. The projected 213 million people will be doing so in 2050. *Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis, an independent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.
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