USA Africa Dialogue Series - RE: | Population problems are imaginary

Dr. Kassim,

What you have left out in your "Nature's Balance" theory is the human ingenuity, the remarkable ability and capacity of humans to create, innovate and discover, and survive the MOST challenging circumstance nature can present. Take an example of the pre-industrial revolution theories that human population growth would out-pace production and available material resources; this demand-trumping-supply thinking then was anchored on the available manual labor of the poor, slaves and less privileged OR the rudimentary technologies of the times. Nobody thought about the POWER and ERA OF MACHINES! However, the human mind/brain ushered in the Industrial Revolution and everything CHANGED! There was so much production and surplus that export of goods became too necessary to ignored. The need to export goods led humans to conquer other lands and you know the rest of the story.

Besides, the industrial revolution and age of machines resulted in all forms of scary labor theories of machines takeover; some theorized that machines would replace humans in the workplace, manufacturing et cetera; but it NEVER happened! You know why? Nobody thought the human mind would creatively and innovatively develop organized labor group platforms to protect the common man/woman's interests in the workplace and society, such that the labor force actually shapen the political process and governance in the society. That is the remarkable adaptive and adjustive tendency of the human being, all of which promote Human Survival under all circumstances!

 

In the final analysis, it appears that these fear-mongering theories about threats to humanity by various forces are indeed perpetrated by Govts and related bodies/agencies that are usually too lazy to provide the enabling environment in a society with a growing population to produce growth in other areas. Thus, it remains possible or plausible that the complaints about over-population may represent a convenient refuge for those in charge of society to do nothing and maintain the staus quo!

My prediction therefore is that, Since it is a fact that “less people don’t necessarily bring about greater economic growth in a nation”, if we believe that  human beings are the greatest resources in any society, it is fair to say that the more the people the greater the chances of having the Einsteins, innovators, creators etc; and hence the greater the chances for changes that are commensurate with and compensatory for growing populations. And this is how I see the Nature's BALANCE theory you expounded. Take care. JUI

---

From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com on behalf of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu 09-Sep-10 10:12 PM
To: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Cc: afenmai@yahoogroups.com; usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] Re: [NaijaPolitics] RE: | Population problems are imaginary

 

 

 

 

Joe:

 

 

 

Not that fast. Do not be so easily seduced.

My dear friend Thomson Ayodele and his

co-author have only addressed one side of

the population issue--the benefits to be derived

from a growing population--as long as such growth

is sustainable.

 

In reality, population has another side to its face--

it has always been a double edged sword.

 

Too small a population is as much a deterrent to economic

growth as is too much population.

 

Take for instance the issue of a basic human need like

--e.g the need for fresh water.

 

Has Nigeria ever been able to provide enough fresh water for her population?

What rate of growth can be sustained by the the amount of fresh water reserves

we have in Nigeria? Or will Nigerians live on bottled water?

 

Each human being puts his or her own foot print on the ecosystem.

The keyword is balance!

 

Episodic droughts and bush fires are two of nature's ways of controlling overpopulation

of wild animals in the jungles.

 

Human beings have the wherewithal to ensure that we can tailor our the growth

rate of our population to match the needs of the economy. We so this through

increase births or liberalized immigration policies when the population

is in decline as is currently the case in many western countries.

 

Bye,

 

Ola

-----Original Message-----
From: Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCPDCID) <jbi8@cdc.gov>
To: OlaKassimMD@aol.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Cc: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; afenmai@yahoogroups.com; USAAfricaDialogue <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 7:05 pm
Subject: [NaijaPolitics] RE: | Population problems are imaginary

 

“””…..an increase in population is an impetus for growth”””, be it economic growth or societal progress….Unquote

Ola Kassim/IBK:

Whichever way we analyze this “over-population” issue, it is a fact that Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola have provided very compelling and persuasive arguments for the value and utility of population increase in a society that cannot be ignored. 

The critical issues to consider here are:

1.      Are Govts usually too lazy to provide the enabling environment in a society with a growing population to produce growth in other areas? Is the complain about over-population a convenient refuge for doing nothing? I am seeing Nigeria as a good example of such a society.

2.      Since it is a fact that “less people don’t necessarily bring about greater economic growth in a nation” (Togo or Dahomey/Benin Rep will be more prosperous than China), if we believe that  human beings are the greatest resources in any society, is it fair to say that the more the people the greater the chances of having the Einsteins, innovators, creators etc; and hence the greater the chances for PROGRESS!!!

Frankly, this article by Ayodele and Sotola has changed my outlook on this over-population thing because I Believe in the unimaginable capacity of human beings to achieve or win, provided they are well LED! 

Finally, in the apt words of a Chinese Philosopher: if you can bring as many ordinary people as possible together to work on a project, they will out-perform any extraordinary person even a genius! Take care. JUI

 

From: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NIDOA@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, September 09, 2010 5:47 PM
To: ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: NIDOA | Population problems are imaginary

 

IBK:

 

Thompson Ayodele, a co-author of the referenced article is well known to me.

I respect his views just as he respects mine. We agree on many

issues while we disagree on a few--the population issue being one.

 

This is the reason he forwarded a copy of the published article to me.

 

I have already arguedd against many of the points raised in Mr Ayodele's

co-authored published response to the British study which raised

some concerns over the unsustainable rate of growth of the population

in Nigeria and in most sub-Saharan African countries.

 

While a large healthy population comprised mostly of your adults might be

good for the national economy, the reverse is the case when the governemnt

has consistently failed to provide the necessary conducive envronment

to generate such a healthy and well educated young work force.

 

It is wishful thinking to assume that things are suddenly going to change in Nigeria

even with divined governance in such a dramtic manner that we would be able

to erase in a few years the human resource deficit--due to lack of proper education,

healthcare and other badly needed services and infrastructure that we have accumulated in a few years.

 

We can not keep on producing more and more children when we have not provided

enough class rooms in primary and secondary schools for those who were born

5 or 12 years ago and when the majority of our 25 year olds both educated and uneducated

ones remain jobless 5 , 10 or more years after graduation.

 

A country in which university graduates operate Okada to make a living is not one

that should turn a blind eye on the need for proper family planning.

 

A country in which a vast majority of her peoples live below the poverty line is

not one that should continue to breed indiscriminately in and out of wedlock

 

Mr Ayodele's co-authored article premises all the presumed advantages of unchecked

population growth on the  existence of proper governance under good, fortright and visionary and unsustainable

leaders--the absence of which is the same Achille's heel that has been the bane of Nigeria post independence.

 

The position being espoused is one that can be easily compared to someone going on

shopping spree on a credit card without limit, in the belief that he or she would win

the multi-million dollar jackpot the following week.

 

Failure to plan is planning to fail! Human beings have a higher calling than our cousins

the apes and other animals. We do not need to ieave everything to nature!

 

Family planning is a good thing!

 

 

Knowingly having children you cannot care for is a moral SIN in nation without an adequate welfare

system.

 

Bye,

 

Ola

 

NB:IBK---Learn a little bit of decorum from Mr Ayodele and others.

You can disagree with me without being abusive.

 

-----Original Message-----
From: Ibukunolu Alao Babajide <ibk@usa.net>
To: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com; OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 4:31 pm
Subject: Re: [OmoOdua] Fwd: Population problems are imaginary

Ola Kassim,

You are brave to post this article that puts the scalpel through the thin membrane of your own position on the population debate.  Now what sayeth thee to this?

Give us another long prolix post on the issue.

IBK

------ Original Message ------
Received: 10:29 PM EAT, 09/09/2010
From: OlaKassimMD@aol.com
To: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com, NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com, NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com, omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [OmoOdua] Fwd: Population problems are imaginary

 

 

This is published in today's Punch and Guardian Newspapers:

"Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic

framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The

key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property

rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced

equally."

http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22528:ayodele-and-sotola-population-problems-are-imaginary&catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615

          Population problems are imaginary

         By Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola

Thursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - Columnists

A recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on the edge of a

demographic disaster. This warning is based on the bludgeoning population

in which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The report

consequently argues that the present population is out of balance and it

may spell doom as it increases to 213 million by 2050.

For the past three decades, there have been debates whether there is a

link between population and economic growth. The argument has been that

increased population retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous.

It merely draws attention away from the real barriers to economic growth.

There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief regarding the so-called

population problem. At the centre of population policy is whether

individuals themselves or politicians or national and international civil

servants should decide the number of kids parents should have. However, an

increase in population is an impetus for growth. The pattern of population

growth in Nigeria in the last two decades does not indicate that an

increase in population will lead to demographic disaster.

Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from 88 million to 150

million, an increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about 70 per

cent in 17 years did not have demographic effect, then the argument that

demographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the population climbs to 213

million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems not to hold water.

On the contrary, the problem is not too many people but lack of economic

freedom. Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with increased in

population is largely misplaced.

In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria population indicates the

likelihood of a decline. The population increased by over 70 per cent

between 1991 and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42 per

cent in 44 years. Since the present day Nigeria society seems to consider

large family undesirable, the likelihood of a decreased in population

beyond 2050 is higher. The impression being created by the report is that

Nigeria is overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, of

course, is absolutely misleading.

Contrary to this, research has shown that the more the people, the more

the prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and innovative

people in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries.

Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparsely

populated countryside.  It may interest us to know that famine and

starvation has occurred in sparsely populated countries than densely

populated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his publications,  argues that

less people don’t actually bring about economic growth. He rhetorically

asks: why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few

thousands on the planet?

Globally, highly populated countries are important to the world economy.

They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship and exchange of

goods and services. The key factor that attracts and retains Foreign

Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria is not the nature of our political

system but the depth and size of the market. The astronomical growth in

the Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially driven by

demand which is a function of the population. Because small countries

produce and consume only very few items and suffer from scale

diseconomies, they are largely unattractive for big investment except when

they have natural endowments.

The implication of reduced population in economic term is on

entrepreneurship and economic development. This will limit the market

prospects for future products. Increased in the number of newborns alone

can stimulate the economy. They can create market for some set of goods

which interlink with the whole economy. More importantly, they grow up

into productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the country

against external aggression and care for the elderly.

A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries policies that aimed at

artificially controlling population will undermine both quantitative and

qualitative global development. Apart from making the world underachieve

its full potentials, it will create demographic problems. In China, there

are now 32 million more male than female under the age of 20, sex

selective abortion account for almost all the excess. China also has high

rate of abandonment and infanticide of girl child.

The beliefs that high population density breads poverty flew in the face

of facts. If population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong should

be the poorest parts of the world today. These are areas with high

population density but highly prosperous despite limited landmass.

Population growth might cause short-term losses in term of cost but it is

bound to yield long-term gains. In other words, the long-term benefits of

high population far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as said

by Beisner “over their lifetimes, people tend to produce more than they

consume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up to increase the wealth

and value of the society. Little wonder production has consistently

outgrown population.

Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed economies are at

present promoting population growth. This is noticeable in some

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries

where policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageing

population. A perfect example is Australia. Since May 2004 Australia

government has announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial

A$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one baby

for your husband and one for your wife and one for the country.

The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus for stay-at-home

mothers if the coalition wins the federal election. In June, Australia

Senate passed a bill which will pay all parents who stay home the minimum

wage of $570 a week for 18 weeks. These measures are aimed at encouraging

families to have more children.

It is incontrovertible that human beings are the ultimate resource. Other

resources are useless without human innovation and exertion. An increase

human’s number should therefore not be viewed as a disaster. The

population problem is a bogeyman. It prevents us from seeing human beings

as the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high population encourage

people to think that people are a burden who are incapable of changing

their economic conditions without government help. However, the truth

remains that government is the big problem.

It is government policies which hinder wealth creation that are keeping

the people poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a nation is

poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that

provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of

such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and

sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally.

Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication associated with

arbitrary population control. Policy makers ought not see population

growth as a problem. Rather we should picture 150 million human brains

daily striving to improve their situations, solve economic problems and

above all create wealth. The projected 213 million people will be doing so

in 2050.

*Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis, an

independent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: Thompson Ayodele <thompson@ippanigeria.org>
To: olakassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 12:49 pm
Subject: Population problems are imaginary

This is published in today's Punch and Guardian Newspapers:

"Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic

framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The

key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property

rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced

equally."

http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22528:ayodele-and-sotola-population-problems-are-imaginary&catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615

          Population problems are imaginary

         By Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola

Thursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - Columnists

A recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on the edge of a

demographic disaster. This warning is based on the bludgeoning population

in which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The report

consequently argues that the present population is out of balance and it

may spell doom as it increases to 213 million by 2050.

For the past three decades, there have been debates whether there is a

link between population and economic growth. The argument has been that

increased population retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous.

It merely draws attention away from the real barriers to economic growth.

There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief regarding the so-called

population problem. At the centre of population policy is whether

individuals themselves or politicians or national and international civil

servants should decide the number of kids parents should have. However, an

increase in population is an impetus for growth. The pattern of population

growth in Nigeria in the last two decades does not indicate that an

increase in population will lead to demographic disaster.

Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from 88 million to 150

million, an increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about 70 per

cent in 17 years did not have demographic effect, then the argument that

demographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the population climbs to 213

million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems not to hold water.

On the contrary, the problem is not too many people but lack of economic

freedom. Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with increased in

population is largely misplaced.

In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria population indicates the

likelihood of a decline. The population increased by over 70 per cent

between 1991 and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42 per

cent in 44 years. Since the present day Nigeria society seems to consider

large family undesirable, the likelihood of a decreased in population

beyond 2050 is higher. The impression being created by the report is that

Nigeria is overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, of

course, is absolutely misleading.

Contrary to this, research has shown that the more the people, the more

the prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and innovative

people in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries.

Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparsely

populated countryside.  It may interest us to know that famine and

starvation has occurred in sparsely populated countries than densely

populated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his publications,  argues that

less people don’t actually bring about economic growth. He rhetorically

asks: why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few

thousands on the planet?

Globally, highly populated countries are important to the world economy.

They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship and exchange of

goods and services. The key factor that attracts and retains Foreign

Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria is not the nature of our political

system but the depth and size of the market. The astronomical growth in

the Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially driven by

demand which is a function of the population. Because small countries

produce and consume only very few items and suffer from scale

diseconomies, they are largely unattractive for big investment except when

they have natural endowments.

The implication of reduced population in economic term is on

entrepreneurship and economic development. This will limit the market

prospects for future products. Increased in the number of newborns alone

can stimulate the economy. They can create market for some set of goods

which interlink with the whole economy. More importantly, they grow up

into productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the country

against external aggression and care for the elderly.

A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries policies that aimed at

artificially controlling population will undermine both quantitative and

qualitative global development. Apart from making the world underachieve

its full potentials, it will create demographic problems. In China, there

are now 32 million more male than female under the age of 20, sex

selective abortion account for almost all the excess. China also has high

rate of abandonment and infanticide of girl child.

The beliefs that high population density breads poverty flew in the face

of facts. If population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong should

be the poorest parts of the world today. These are areas with high

population density but highly prosperous despite limited landmass.

Population growth might cause short-term losses in term of cost but it is

bound to yield long-term gains. In other words, the long-term benefits of

high population far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as said

by Beisner “over their lifetimes, people tend to produce more than they

consume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up to increase the wealth

and value of the society. Little wonder production has consistently

outgrown population.

Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed economies are at

present promoting population growth. This is noticeable in some

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries

where policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageing

population. A perfect example is Australia. Since May 2004 Australia

government has announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial

A$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one baby

for your husband and one for your wife and one for the country.

The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus for stay-at-home

mothers if the coalition wins the federal election. In June, Australia

Senate passed a bill which will pay all parents who stay home the minimum

wage of $570 a week for 18 weeks. These measures are aimed at encouraging

families to have more children.

It is incontrovertible that human beings are the ultimate resource. Other

resources are useless without human innovation and exertion. An increase

human’s number should therefore not be viewed as a disaster. The

population problem is a bogeyman. It prevents us from seeing human beings

as the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high population encourage

people to think that people are a burden who are incapable of changing

their economic conditions without government help. However, the truth

remains that government is the big problem.

It is government policies which hinder wealth creation that are keeping

the people poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a nation is

poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that

provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of

such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and

sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally.

Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication associated with

arbitrary population control. Policy makers ought not see population

growth as a problem. Rather we should picture 150 million human brains

daily striving to improve their situations, solve economic problems and

above all create wealth. The projected 213 million people will be doing so

in 2050.

*Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis, an

independent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.

 

 

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