Prof Prince KC Asagwara:
Not quite in that linear form of extrapolation because this is a multi-variant equation. Rather consider the extrapolation to enjoy the statistical TRUISM that: A large population size provides a better opportunity to achieve significant and functional means than a small population size; in other words, all things being equal, you are more likely to breed multiple geniuses from China than from Equatorial Guinea; so if the human bio-social evolution results in one per million chances of producing a genius, the odds are in favor of a society with one point five billion people to produce more than one genius every generation than a society with one million people. However, what controls the production of geniuses lie with how the societies are managed. The large population society may be so mismanaged (e.g., inept/visionless leadership like Nigeria, high poverty etc) that it limits the production of geniuses; whereas the small population society could be so well managed (e.g., educate all citizens, ensure comfortable life for all, reward merit etc) to enhance the production of geniuses that could even beat the odds. This is the experience in nature that socio-biology has taught us. Take care. JUI
From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Asagwara, Ken (EDU-ECY)
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2010 11:01 AM
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: | Population problems are imaginary
"My prediction therefore is that, Since it is a fact that “less people don’t necessarily bring about greater economic growth in a nation”, if we believe that human beings are the greatest resources in any society, it is fair to say that the more the people the greater the chances of having the Einsteins, innovators, creators etc; and hence the greater the chances for changes that are commensurate with and compensatory for growing populations. And this is how I see the Nature's BALANCE theory you expounded. Take care." JUI
Dr. Igietseme:
My simple extrapolation from yours above is that you get quality from quantity.
Cheers.
KC Prince Asagwara
From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCPDCID)
Sent: Thursday, September 09, 2010 10:59 PM
To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Cc: afenmai@yahoogroups.com; usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] RE: | Population problems are imaginary
Dr. Kassim,
What you have left out in your "Nature's Balance" theory is the human ingenuity, the remarkable ability and capacity of humans to create, innovate and discover, and survive the MOST challenging circumstance nature can present. Take an example of the pre-industrial revolution theories that human population growth would out-pace production and available material resources; this demand-trumping-supply thinking then was anchored on the available manual labor of the poor, slaves and less privileged OR the rudimentary technologies of the times. Nobody thought about the POWER and ERA OF MACHINES! However, the human mind/brain ushered in the Industrial Revolution and everything CHANGED! There was so much production and surplus that export of goods became too necessary to ignored. The need to export goods led humans to conquer other lands and you know the rest of the story.
Besides, the industrial revolution and age of machines resulted in all forms of scary labor theories of machines takeover; some theorized that machines would replace humans in the workplace, manufacturing et cetera; but it NEVER happened! You know why? Nobody thought the human mind would creatively and innovatively develop organized labor group platforms to protect the common man/woman's interests in the workplace and society, such that the labor force actually shapen the political process and governance in the society. That is the remarkable adaptive and adjustive tendency of the human being, all of which promote Human Survival under all circumstances!
In the final analysis, it appears that these fear-mongering theories about threats to humanity by various forces are indeed perpetrated by Govts and related bodies/agencies that are usually too lazy to provide the enabling environment in a society with a growing population to produce growth in other areas. Thus, it remains possible or plausible that the complaints about over-population may represent a convenient refuge for those in charge of society to do nothing and maintain the staus quo!
My prediction therefore is that, Since it is a fact that “less people don’t necessarily bring about greater economic growth in a nation”, if we believe that human beings are the greatest resources in any society, it is fair to say that the more the people the greater the chances of having the Einsteins, innovators, creators etc; and hence the greater the chances for changes that are commensurate with and compensatory for growing populations. And this is how I see the Nature's BALANCE theory you expounded. Take care. JUI
From: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com on behalf of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu 09-Sep-10 10:12 PM
To: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Cc: afenmai@yahoogroups.com; usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Subject: [NIgerianWorldForum] Re: [NaijaPolitics] RE: | Population problems are imaginary
Joe:
Not that fast. Do not be so easily seduced.
My dear friend Thomson Ayodele and his
co-author have only addressed one side of
the population issue--the benefits to be derived
from a growing population--as long as such growth
is sustainable.
In reality, population has another side to its face--
it has always been a double edged sword.
Too small a population is as much a deterrent to economic
growth as is too much population.
Take for instance the issue of a basic human need like
--e.g the need for fresh water.
Has Nigeria ever been able to provide enough fresh water for her population?
What rate of growth can be sustained by the the amount of fresh water reserves
we have in Nigeria? Or will Nigerians live on bottled water?
Each human being puts his or her own foot print on the ecosystem.
The keyword is balance!
Episodic droughts and bush fires are two of nature's ways of controlling overpopulation
of wild animals in the jungles.
Human beings have the wherewithal to ensure that we can tailor our the growth
rate of our population to match the needs of the economy. We so this through
increase births or liberalized immigration policies when the population
is in decline as is currently the case in many western countries.
Bye,
Ola
-----Original Message-----
From: Igietseme, Joseph (CDC/OID/NCPDCID) <jbi8@cdc.gov>
To: OlaKassimMD@aol.com; ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Cc: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; afenmai@yahoogroups.com; USAAfricaDialogue <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 7:05 pm
Subject: [NaijaPolitics] RE: | Population problems are imaginary
“””…..an increase in population is an impetus for growth”””, be it economic growth or societal progress….Unquote
Ola Kassim/IBK:
Whichever way we analyze this “over-population” issue, it is a fact that Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola have provided very compelling and persuasive arguments for the value and utility of population increase in a society that cannot be ignored.
The critical issues to consider here are:
1. Are Govts usually too lazy to provide the enabling environment in a society with a growing population to produce growth in other areas? Is the complain about over-population a convenient refuge for doing nothing? I am seeing Nigeria as a good example of such a society.
2. Since it is a fact that “less people don’t necessarily bring about greater economic growth in a nation” (Togo or Dahomey/Benin Rep will be more prosperous than China), if we believe that human beings a!
re the greatest resources in any society, is it fair to say that the more the people the greater the chances of having the Einsteins, innovators, creators etc; and hence the greater the chances for PROGRESS!!!
Frankly, this article by Ayodele and Sotola has changed my outlook on this over-population thing because I Believe in the unimaginable capacity of human beings to achieve or win, provided they are well LED!
Finally, in the apt words of a Chinese Philosopher: if you can bring as many ordinary people as possible together to work on a project, they will out-perform any extraordinary person even a genius! Take care. JUI
From: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NIDOA@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, September 09, 2010 5:47 PM
To: ibk@usa.net; NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: NIDOA | Population problems are imaginary
IBK:
Thompson Ayodele, a co-author of the referenced article is well known to me.
I respect his views just as he respects mine. We agree on many
issues while we disagree on a few--the population issue being one.
This is the reason he forwarded a copy of the published article to me.
I have already arguedd against many of the points raised in Mr Ayodele's
co-authored published response to the British study which raised
some concerns over the unsustainable rate of growth of the population
in Nigeria and in most sub-Saharan African countries.
While a large healthy population comprised mostly of your adults might be
good for the national economy, the reverse is the case when the governemnt
has consistently failed to provide the necessary conducive envronment
to generate such a healthy and well educated young work force.
It is wishful thinking to assume that things are suddenly going to change in Nigeria
even with divined governance in such a dramtic manner that we would be able
to erase in a few years the human resource deficit--due to lack of proper education,
healthcare and other badly needed services and infrastructure that we have accumulated in a few years.
We can not keep on producing more and more children when we have not provided
enough class rooms in primary and secondary schools for those who were born
5 or 12 years ago and when the majority of our 25 year olds both educated and uneducated
ones remain jobless 5 , 10 or more years after graduation.
A country in which university graduates operate Okada to make a living is not one
that should turn a blind eye on the need for proper family planning.
A country in which a vast majority of her peoples live below the poverty line is
not one that should continue to breed indiscriminately in and out of wedlock
Mr Ayodele's co-authored article premises all the presumed advantages of unchecked
population growth on the existence of proper governance under good, fortright and visionary and unsustainable
leaders--the absence of which is the same Achille's heel that has been the bane of Nigeria post independence.
The position being espoused is one that can be easily compared to someone going on
shopping spree on a credit card without limit, in the belief that he or she would win
the multi-million dollar jackpot the following week.
Failure to plan is planning to fail! Human beings have a higher calling than our cousins
the apes and other animals. We do not need to ieave everything to nature!
Family planning is a good thing!
Knowingly having children you cannot care for is a moral SIN in nation without an adequate welfare
system.
Bye,
Ola
NB:IBK---Learn a little bit of decorum from Mr Ayodele and others.
You can disagree with me without being abusive.
-----Original Message-----
From: Ibukunolu Alao Babajide <ibk@usa.net>
To: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com; NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; omoodua@yahoogroups.com; OlaKassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 4:31 pm
Subject: Re: [OmoOdua] Fwd: Population problems are imaginary
Ola Kassim,
You are brave to post this article that puts the scalpel through the thin membrane of your own position on the population debate. Now what sayeth thee to this?
Give us another long prolix post on the issue.
IBK
------ Original Message ------
Received: 10:29 PM EAT, 09/09/2010
From: OlaKassimMD@aol.com
To: NIDOA@yahoogroups.com, NIDOCANADA@yahoogroups.com, NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com, omoodua@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [OmoOdua] Fwd: Population problems are imaginary
This is published in today's Punch and Guardian Newspapers:"Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economicframework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. Thekey elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured propertyrights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforcedequally."!http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22528:ayodele-and-sotola-population-problems-are-imaginary&catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615Population problems are imaginaryBy Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun SotolaThursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - ColumnistsA recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on the edge of ademographic disaster. This warning is based on the bludgeoning populationin which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The reportconsequently argues that the present population is out of balance and itmay spell doom as it increases to 213 million by 2050.For the past three decades, there have been debates whether there is alink between population and economi!c growth. The argument has been thatincreased population retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous.It merely draws attention away from the real barriers to economic growth.There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief regarding the so-calledpopulation problem. At the centre of population policy is whetherindividuals themselves or politicians or national and international civilservants should decide the number of kids parents should have. However, anincrease in population is an impetus for growth. The pattern of populationgrowth in Nigeria in the last two decades does not indicate that anincrease in population will lead to demographic disaster.Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from 88 million to 150million, an increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about 70 percent in 17 years did not have demographi!c effect, then the argument thatdemographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the population climbs to 213million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems not to hold water.On the contrary, the problem is not too many people but lack of economicfreedom. Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with increased inpopulation is largely misplaced.In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria population indicates thelikelihoo!d of a decline. The population increased by over 70 per centbetween 1991 and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42 percent in 44 years. Since the present day Nigeria society seems to considerlarge family undesirable, the likelihood of a decreased in populationbeyond 2050 is higher. The impression being created by the report is thatNigeria is overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, ofcourse, is absolutely misleading.Contrary to this, research has shown that!the more the people, the morethe prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and innovativepeople in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries.Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparselypopulated countryside. It may interest us to know that famine andstarvation has occurred in sparsely populated countries than denselypopulated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his publications, argues thatless people don’t actually bring ab!out economic growth. He rhetoricallyasks: why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a fewthousands on the planet?Globally, highly populated countries are important to the world economy.They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship and exchange ofgoods and services. The key factor that attracts and retains ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) in Nigeria is not the nature of our politicalsystem but the depth and s!ize of the market. The astronomical growth inthe Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially driven bydemand which is a function of the population. Because small countriesproduce and consume only very few items and suffer from scalediseconomies, they are largely unattractive for big investment except whenthey have natural endowments.The implication of reduced population in economic term is onentrepreneurship and economic development. This will limit the marketprospects for future products. Increased in the number of newborns alonecan stimulate the economy. They can create market for some set of goodswhich interlink with the whole economy. More importantly, they grow upinto productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the countryagainst external aggression and care for the elderly.A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries policies that aimed a!tartificially controlling population will undermine both quantitative andqualitative global development. Apart from making the world underachieveits full potentials, it will create demographic problems. In China, thereare now 32 million more male than female under the age of 20, sexselective abortion account for almost all the excess. China also has highrate of abandonment and in!fanticide of girl child.The beliefs that high population density breads poverty flew in the faceof facts. If population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong shouldbe the poorest parts of the world today. These are areas with highpopulation density but highly prosperous despite limited landmass.Population growth might cause short-term losses in term of cost but it isbound to yield long-term gains. In other words, the long-term benefits ofhigh population far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as saidby Beisner “over their lifetimes, people tend to produce more than theyconsume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up to increase the wealthand value of the society. Little wonder production has consistentlyoutgrown population.Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed economies are atpresent promoting population growth. This is noticeable in someOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countrieswhere policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageingpopulation. A perfect example is Australia. Since May 2004 Australiagovernment has announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initialA$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one babyfor your husband and one for your wife and one for the country.The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus for stay-at-homemothers if the coalition wins the federal election. In June, AustraliaSenate passed a bill which will pay all parents who stay home the minimumwage of $570 a week for 18 weeks. These measures are aimed at encouragingfamilies to have more children.It is incontrovertible that human beings are the ultimate resource. Otherresources are useless without human innovation and exertion. An increasehuman’s number should therefore not be viewed as a disaster. Thepopulation problem is a bogeyman!. It prevents us from seeing human beingsas the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high population encouragepeople to think that people are a burden who are incapable of changingtheir economic conditions without government help. However, the truthremains that government is the big problem.It is government policies which hinder wealth creation that are keepingthe people poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a nation ispoor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework thatprovides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements ofsuch framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair andsensible rules of the market that are enforced equally.Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication associated witharbitrary population control. Policy makers ought not see populationgrowth as a problem. Rather we sh!ould picture 150 million human brainsdaily striving to improve their situations, solve economic problems andabove all create wealth. The projected 213 million people will be doing soin 2050.*Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis, anindependent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.
-----Original Message-----
From: Thompson Ayodele <thompson@ippanigeria.org>
To: olakassimMD@aol.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 9, 2010 12:49 pm
Subject: Population problems are imaginary
This is published in today's Punch and Guardian Newspapers:
"Whether a nation is poor or rich depends on the availability of economic
framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The
key elements of such framework are economic liberty, secured property
rights and fair and sensible rules of the market that are enforced
equally."
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22528:ayodele-and-sotola-population-problems-are-imaginary&catid=38:columnists&Itemid=615
Population problems are imaginary
By Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola
Thursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - Columnists
A recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on the edge of a
demographic disaster. This warning is based on the bludgeoning population
in which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The report
consequently argues that t!he present population is out of balance and it
may spell doom as it increases to 213 million by 2050.
For the past three decades, there have been debates whether there is a
link between population and economic growth. The argument has been that
increased population retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous.
It merely draws attention away from the real barriers to economic growth.
There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief regarding the so-called
population problem. At the centre of population policy is whether
individuals themselves or politicians or national and international civil
servants should decide the number of kids parents should have. However, an
increase in population is an impetus for growth. The pattern of population
growth in Nig!eria in the last two decades does not indicate that an
increase in population will lead to demographic disaster.
Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from 88 million to 150
million, an increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about 70 per
cent in 17 years did not have demographic effect, then the argument that
demographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the population clim!bs to 213
million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems not to hold water.
On the contrary, the problem is not too many people but lack of economic
freedom. Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with increased in
population is largely misplaced.
In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria population indicates the
likelihood of a decline. The population i!ncreased by over 70 per cent
between 1991 and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42 per
cent in 44 years. Since the present day Nigeria society seems to consider
large family undesirable, the likelihood of a decreased in population
beyond 2050 is higher. The impression being created by the report is that
Nigeria is overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, of
course, is absolute!ly misleading.
Contrary to this, research has shown that the more the people, the more
the prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and innovative
people in China, India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries.
Across the world, there are more millionaires in big cities than sparsely
populated countryside. It may interest us to know that famine and
starvation has occurred in sparsely populated countries than densely
populated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his publications, argues that
less people don’t actually bring about economic growth. He rhetorically
asks: why are our ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few
thousands on the planet?
Globally, highly populated countries are important to the world economy!.
They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship and exchange of
goods and services. The key factor that attracts and retains Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria is not the nature of our political
system but the depth and size of the market. The astronomical growth in
the Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially driven by
demand which is a function of the population. Because !small countries
produce and consume only very few items and suffer from scale
diseconomies, they are largely unattractive for big investment except when
they have natural endowments.
The implication of reduced population in economic term is on
entrepreneurship and economic development. This will limit the market
prospects for future products. Increased in the number of n!
ewborns alone
can stimulate the economy. They can create market for some set of goods
which interlink with the whole economy. More importantly, they grow up
into productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the country
against external aggression and care for the elderly.
A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries policies that aimed at
artificially controlli!
ng population will undermine both quantitative and
qualitative global development. Apart from making the world underachieve
its full potentials, it will create demographic problems. In China, there
are now 32 million more male than female under the age of 20, sex
selective abortion account for almost all the excess. China also has high
rate of abandonment and infanticide of girl child.
The beliefs that high population density breads poverty flew in the face
of facts. If population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong should
be the poorest parts of the world today. These are areas with high
population density but highly prosperous despite limited landmass.
Population growth might cause short-term losses in term of cost but it is
!
bound to yield long-term ga!
ins. In other words, the long-term benefits of
high population far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as said
by Beisner “over their lifetimes, people tend to produce more than they
consume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up to increase the wealth
and value of the society. Little wonder production has consistently
outgrown population.
Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed economies are at
present promoting population growth. This is noticeable in some
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries
where policy makers have designed policies aimed at arresting the ageing
population. A perfect example is Australia. Since May 2004 Australia
government has announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial
A$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004 has been tagged: one baby
for your husband and one for your wife and one for the country.
The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus for stay-at-home
mothers if the coalition wins the federal election. In June, Australia
Senate passed a bill which will pay all parents who stay home the minimum
wage of $570 a week!for 18 weeks. These measures are aimed at encouraging
families to have more children.
It is incontrovertible that human beings are the ultimate resource. Other
resources are useless without human innovation and exertion. An increase
human’s number should therefore not be viewed as a disaster. The
population problem is a bogeyman. It prevents us from seeing human beings
as the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high population encourage
people to think that people are a burden who are incapable of changing
their economic conditions without government help. However, the truth
remains that government is the big problem.
It is government policies which hinder wealth creation that are keeping
the people poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a !nation is
poor or rich depends on the availability of economic framework that
provides incentives for working hard and taking risks. The key elements of
such framework are economic liberty, secured property rights and fair and
sensible rules of the market that are enforced equally.
Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication associated with
arbitrary populati!on control. Policy makers ought not see population
growth as a problem. Rather we should picture 150 million human brains
daily striving to improve their situations, solve economic problems and
above all create wealth. The projected 213 million people will be doing so
in 2050.
*Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public Policy Analysis, an
independent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.
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