Dominic Ogbonna:
Thanks for your thoughts. You are one of my inspirers today, together with Peter Opara, if both of you can believe that...
Moving on.....
You ask why Goodluck Jonathan is running, despite the fact that it was his humble background and singular lack of ambition that endeared him to the populace.
Well, besides the fact that his Ijaw people are pressuring him to do so - there was a full page advert in Nigeria telling him that "Make You Nor Come Back to Niger-Delta without Running - Ee far o!" - there is the Curse of Incumbency, that says that when an incumbent has an opportunity to re-run, he MUST re-run for two reasons:
- if he does not run, it is an admission of ineffectiveness in office or cowardice;
- if he does not run, the replacement candidate of his party might not win because the electorate would perceive the incumbent NOT running as an admission of ineffectiveness of the party, so why vote for that replacement?
So there is always pressure on BOTH the incumbent AND his party to FIELD the incumbent. I believe that is what informs PDP presently lining up behind GEJ, despite the call for sacrificial statesmanship at this time.
That is the same reason why the Governor of my state, Segun Oni, has picked a PDP form to indicate that he is running again in Ekiti State, when he should pick 440-yards and retire quietly to Ifaki/Ido-Osi!
Lord have mercy!
Bolaji Aluko
Shaking his head
Bolaji Aluko:
You are totally inspired today! I particularly liked this one:
"But unfortunately, it appears that he [Atiku] is now too overly ambitious to be president of Nigeria ... Nigeria is a graveyard for overly ambitious persons who want to be president. I fear that his time may have come and gone - but I may be wrong, because I think that he would still make a good president, primarily because he knows his own limitations (unlike OBJ); knows how to recognize talent, and knows how to make the best use of them."
I couldn't agree more!
And yes, that part about Nigeria being a graveyard for the overly ambitious is so utterly true, and it is the number one reason why I still entertain the hope that even my humble self may one day occupy Aso Rock! :) :) Would you vote for me?
Speaking more seriously, the tendency of our polity to populate Aso Rock with the ostensibly non-ambitious was what, above all, worked in Jonathan's favor during the UMYA bruhahaha! It is the number one reason why he gained so much support from civil society. It is the # 1 reason why he inherited so much good will from all of us -goodwill that has, am afraid, since been recklessly squandered.
What is it with these people who get into Aso Rock? Is the water inside that enclave drugged or something? A mouse goes in there, and by the time he comes out, he is roaring like a lion! Na waaa!
Anyway, Jonathan is now the incumbent, and as it turns out, a very ambitious one at that! Would he survive the banana peel? We shall find out soon enough.
As for Gusau, all I can say is: Na waaa! Not much is known about him now, beside the fact that he probably has enough dirt to blackmail whoever he wishes. Does he have a political opinion?
Dominic
On Fri, Sep 24, 2010 at 4:43 PM, Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
Dominic Ogbonna:
Today is when I am in a mood for exegesis.
So here goes....
There have been three election cycles in the present Civilian Dispensation in which I have made comments about presidential choices:
- 1999; in which my candidate of choice was AD/ANPP's Falae over PDP Obasanjo; I was not a member of AD then.
- 2003; when my candidate was ANPP's Buhari over PDP's Obasanjo; I was NOT a member of ANPP; [See my essay SUNDAY MUSINGS: The 2003 Presidential Elections - The Militicians vs the Civilians http://www.kwenu.com/publications/aluko/2003/militicians_civilians.htm ]
- 2007; when my candidate of choice was Atiku over PDP's Yar'Adua; it was only by then I had become a card-carrying member of AC. In that election, Buhari lost some shine for me over his choice of Ume-Ezeoke (I knew some of the workings of the ANPP then, because Chief Harry Akande is a senior friend, and AC and ANPP were in close contact on various matters), and his unwise statement about Iwu on the eve of the election.
I do not see why I cannot like you simply express preference for one candidate or the other without having to defend myself, but I found Atiku personally to be a very decent individual; a victim of the mentality in Nigeria that all stinkingly rich Nigerians are probably corrupt - aided by the vicious attack on him by a vindictive Obasanjo, who used the EFCC (under Ribadu) and others go after him. He survived them all, and showed his mettle as a democrat by using his enormous wealth to fight for himself in court, which I admired.
But unfortunately, it appears that he is now too overly ambitious to be president of Nigeria that he is making a monumental mistake returning to his vomit of the PDP. With Obasanjo still as Chairman of the Board of Trustees, and Nyako as Governor of Adamawa, Atiku has to keep his eyes wide open. Nigeria is a graveyard for overly ambitious persons who want to be president. I fear that his time may have come and gone - but I may be wrong, because I think that he would still make a good president, primarily because he knows his own limitations (unlike OBJ); knows how to recognize talent, and knows how to make the best use of them.
So I can still touch Atiku with a ten-foot pole, and you should revise your priors on that one.
Now we are in the next cycle:
- 2011; if I support Ribadu, it is NOT necessarily because he is ACN, which he has only joined; but he is NOT even ACN's candidate yet. I have laid out clearly why I would support him - and none of it is because he is ACN's candidate.
Throughout Ribadu's tenure at the EFCC, I maintained contact with him, once going to his office in Abuja to advise him to cool it with all his political statements (his Chief of Staff then is a friend, a pro-dem of long-standing.) I found Ribadu humble and accomodating, and truly caught between the rock of thieves abounding in society and the hard place of thieves in Obasanjo's enclave. Not once have I EVER stated that I could not stand Ribadu; I could always touch him with a one-foot pole.... So please revise your priors on that one.
Finally, if you ask me, it appears that Aliyu Gusau will finally emerge as the consensus candidate of the North - after IBB, Atiku, Gusau and Saraki have tested their collective quarternary strength in PDP primaries against the incumbency power of Goodluck Jonathan - in the event that Jpnathan wins that primary outright, or does not win it at first ballot. Of all four, he has the least political baggage to contend with.
The fat person has not sung yet.
And there you have it.
Bolaji AlukoOn Fri, Sep 24, 2010 at 11:16 AM, Dominic Ogbonna <summadom@gmail.com> wrote:
Bolaji Aluko:
Never thought it would happen, but I finally found an issue on which we are 100% in agreement. Well, almost. Because I am really only willing to pick the top two - Ribadu and Buhari. However, if you put a gun to my head and ask me to include a third candidate, I would spring for Atiku, and my reasons are as follows:
(a.) While Atiku is clearly a thief at some level, the charge may have been very much exaggerated by his political enemies. From the evidence, it is not very clear that he is as corrupt as the others. In fact, he has had some very impressive moments in the past:
An Example: Does anyone still remember the 1984 incident, when the Emir of Gwandu brought in 53 suitcases? According to professor Wole Soyinka himself, "Not only did Buhari dispatch his aide-de-camp, Jokolo…to facilitate the entry of those cases, he ordered the redeployment…of the Customs Officer (Atiku) who stood firmly against the entry of the contravening baggage". This is the reason why Soyinka has not been able to make up his mind on Atiku even today.
So the question is: Is the 1984 version of Atiku totally dead, or is he lucking somewhere in-there?? Has he been merely rubbished and demonized by the Obasanjo gang, the way professor Aluko routinely demonizes the rest of us here? Until we know the answer to that question, it is not clear that Atiku is either a saint or a villain.
(b.) Where Atiku has been shown to be a thief, of all the PDP candidates, he is also the only preferable kind of thief! During Obasanjo's witch-hunt, for example, the claim was that Atiku corruptly LOANED government money to Mike Adenuga, which Adenuga then used for to qualify for Globacom. Mind you, in the worst case, Government did NOT loose the money in that transaction. The loan was paid back, fully. Atiku just used political influence to make the money available to Adenuga. Not good enough, but not so terrible either.
Why? I like Adenuga very much, because the man has created thousands of jobs for Nigerian citizens. Mike Adenuga is doing the kind of productive things that I would love to see more in Nigeria.
So the kind of thievery that Atiku and Adenuga foisted on the nation is preferable to the kind that IBB or Jonathan and his Chief-Of-Staff are foisting on the nation.
(c.) Rumour is that virtually all the excellent people in Obasanjo's government were head-hunted by Atiku. The ability to nose out competent people is an important presidential talent, in my opinion, so if this rumor is true, Atiku is almost golden.
Moving on ...
Bolaji Aluko, are you a man of principle, or are you merely a man of whim and blatant partisanship? Come with me:
(a.) Not too long ago, Atiku was your number one presidential candidate! Today, you won't touch him with a 10-feet pole!
(b.) Not too long ago, you wouldn't touch Ribadu with a 10-feet pole! Today, he is your number one presidential candidate!
What changed? I will give the audience a hint!
In the one case, Atiku was the flag-bearer of AC, Bolaji's party.
In the other case, Ribadu is the putative flag-bearer of ACN, Bolaji's party.
So does Bolaji Aluko speak out of principle for what is best for Nigeria, or is he merely a party man? You be the judge!
Dominic
On Fri, Sep 24, 2010 at 7:21 AM, <OlaKassimMD@aol.com> wrote:
Bolaji:As usual--this is an excellent analysis even thoughI have some issues with some of your suggestions(e.g. Ribadu as President and Buhari as hisanti-corruption czar)Why not the reverse?
Like you I will not change my citizenship if anyof Ribadu, Buhari or GEJ or in fact anyother other candidate becomes the Presidentin 2011.The most important deliverable for me in 2011
is that the elections be free and fair--No RIGGING, but not necessarily NO RECYCLING.Let the voters decide!Bye,Ola
---- Original Message ----
From: Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com>
To: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com
Cc: bunmi fatoye-matory <bunmifm@gmail.com>; naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; ekiti ekitigroups <ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>; NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com; USAAfrica Dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>; Naija Elections <naijaelections@yahoogroups.com>; NigerianWorldForum <NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>; stevek941@yahoo.com
Sent: Fri, Sep 24, 2010 6:57 am
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - On the Relative Putative Candidacies of Buhari, Ribadu and Jonathan { Re: 2011: Buhari Tackles ACF, Northern Leaders
Steve Kueberuwa:Please do get a few facts right:1. Tunde Idiagbon was Fulani - and Muslim. He is of the same genre as the Olusola, Bukola, or Gbemisola Sarakis, or the Prof. Ibrahim Agboola Gambari or Ilorin Emir Kolapo Sulu-Gambari: Fulanis with a broad and irrefutable Yoruba heritage.2. Buhari was NOT the only military ruler to share power. Mohammed with Obasanjo; Obasanjo with Yar'Adua; IBB with Aikhomu; Abacha with Diya (in early part) were examples in sharing military power. Notice that those were all North/South, Christian Muslim pairings, while Buhari/Idiagbon was a North/North, Muslim/Muslim pairing. The only virtually total military rulers were Ironsi, Gowon (who shared his powers with his AFRC though), Abacha (in his later days) and Abdusalami Abubakar (partly with Akhigbe). One will admit that Idiagbon was probably the most powerful deputy of the lot, in the same manner that Gore was to Clinton, and Dick Cheney to "Dubya" Bush.Thought that I should make those corrections, for the record.All-in-all, having studied the man closely, I am of the firm conviction that Buhari, despite all the myths:1. is virtually incorruptible, and the kind of Nigeria needs to combat that hydra-headed monster;2. is NOT an Islamist or Fulani supremacist;3. is not blood-thirsty, and certainly not as a civilian politician His (in)famous military harshness was a reaction to the times.However, part of Buhari's political problems are that:1. he has allowed accusations of him (as a blood-thirsty dictator and a fundamental Islamist/supremacist) to fester too long without countering them, particularly in the South that is deeply suspicious of him. Again, despite its salutary effect, the Buhari/Idiagbon was the only clearly North/North, Muslim/Muslim pairing so far atop the leadership helm of the country. This is probably because he did not conceive of himself as an electable politician for a long time, and hence did not at some point care what people thought or said about him. [Abiola had similar problems.] There was a time (for example) when he was completely withdrawn to himself, between 1983 (when he was toppled by IBB) and 1994/1995 (when he emerged as Abacha's PTF Chairman).2. he has not developed a broad base of identifiably-close advisors around him, leading to him make a number of policy mistakes in the main political party that he has been in (eg in making Ume Ezeoke both Chairman and VP candidate in the ANPP, who ended up messing him up; his very naive endorsement of Maurice Iwu on the eve of the 2007 election, only to be messed up royally in the worst election ever held, etc.) This may have been attempts to soften his public image as a stern fellow. His emergence as ANPP presidential candidate, particularly in 2007, was not necessarily exemplars in democracy (see for example, the recent interview given by Chief Harry Akande).
3. As a general and Head of State from 1983-1985 - more than 25 years ago - he is just rightly considered part of the Old Guard - albeit a more respectable part of that guard - but still in the same genre of Obasanjo and IBB. It is very difficult to argue with a straight face against Obasanjo and IBB coming back, and not maintain the same with Buhari.Personally, like Bunmi Fatoye-Matory I LOVE the prospects of a Nuhu Ribadu over Buhari as President, with Muhammadu Buhari as his anti-corruption czar.1. Ribadu is much younger and more vibrant.2. Ribadu has never been accused of Islamism or sectionalism.3. Yes, Ribadu may be more PLIABLE (in terms of corruptibility and stern-ness; more pragmatic, let us say) but he has demonstrated a clear anti-corruption zeal as EFCC chairman, and would have a more willing ear to listen to advisors than the much older Buhari with a long-standing military background. Ribadu, as a former policeman, also has some para-military disciplinary background, but did not progress from a "wetin-you-dey-carry" status like policemen like Anenih, Tafa Balogun, etc.Unlike Bunmi, for me, it cannot be Jonathan over Buhari. GEJ in the grips of a PDP administration may turn out to be terrible, especially because of all the developing pre-election turf wars that are yet unfolding If he eventually wins the Presidency - and that is a big IF, because who knows whether he will still be a candidate sef?1. corruption and incompetence might go on un-abated; they are sytemic and endemic in the PDP world;2. he will have a weak presidency not only as he tries to assuage wounded post-election minds within his party and the Northern constituency, and:3. he would be LAME-DUCK from Day One (since he says that he would be going only for one term), and a battle for succession, either from the North (who would want it back, since a Southerner would have been president for 6 years effectively) or from the South-East (since GEJ says that he would be merely completing a Northern term), would ensue because of the uncertainty that his presidential candidacy is currently generating.So my choices - if they become candidates - are Ribadu, Buhari and GEJ in that order - and be assured that I would not change my Nigerian citizenship if any of them became/remain President in 2011.Those are the facts, as different from fantasy - and so there you have it.Bolaji Aluko
Still reading the tea leaves.....On Wed, Sep 22, 2010 at 12:25 PM, Stevek <stevek941@yahoo.com> wrote:
"But I do not TRUST Buhari. He is too much of a Fulani hegemonist."Bunmi,Agaiu, this is contrary to fact and history.Why would a Fulani hegemonist overthrow a Fulani and then share power with a non-Fulani (Idiagbon)? He is, also, the ONLY military ruler that shared power with another. Not quite the characteristics of a supremacist, is it?
StevekWashington, DC, USA
A society of supine lambs breeds erect wolves. - StevekA wise man proportions his beliefs to the evidence - David Hume
To: Stevek <stevek941@yahoo.com>
Cc: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com; ekiti ekitigroups <ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>; Naijanet <naijanet@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Wed, September 22, 2010 11:25:37 AM
Subject: Re: [Naijanet] Re: [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] 2011: Buhari Tackles ACF, Northern Leaders
I beg to disagree, Stevek. I have no problem with good leadership coming from ANY part of the country. But I do not TRUST Buhari. He is too much of a Fulani hegemonist. Give me Ribadu, give me Jonathan, but Buhari, I say enough. Why do we want recycled generals anyway?Bunmi
On Wed, Sep 22, 2010 at 11:16 AM, Stevek <stevek941@yahoo.com> wrote:
You have no scintilla of evidence that Buhari is a supremacist anything.It is, truly, a disservice to ourselves and others if we let our biases (and everyone has biases) to percolate into characterizations for which we have no evidence.I will rather deal with an honest man who is his own man than deal with someone who tells me what I want to hear but be controlled or controllable by the devil.
If Nigeria misses the opportunity to allow this man to help us, we will rue it worse than we are rueing the missed opportunity of President Awolowo.StevekWashington, DC, USA
A society of supine lambs breeds erect wolves. - StevekA wise man proportions his beliefs to the evidence - David Hume
Cc: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com; usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com; NIDOA <NIDOA@yahoogroups.com>; OmoOdua <OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com>; naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com; ekiti ekitigroups <ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>; Naijanet <naijanet@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Wed, September 22, 2010 10:10:07 AM
Subject: [Naijanet] Re: [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] 2011: Buhari Tackles ACF, Northern Leaders
--
This trait is indeed admirable. Northerners usually circle the wagon and refuse to acknowledge or criticize the stinking corruption and hypocrisy oozing from their part of the country. The consequences for the underdeveloped North and our retarded nation are there for everyone to see. However, General Buhari still worries me. I believe strongly he is a Fulani Supremacist, the group of people, who truly believe their people are DESTINED TO RULE NIGERIA. No matter how honest or candid he is, I find that orientation very, very disturbing. I would rather have someone who thinks he or she is a part of a nation to which each and every group or individual has a right to leadership.Bunmi
On Wed, Sep 22, 2010 at 2:47 AM, <ericayoola@aol.co.uk> wrote:
Bhuari has spoken with typical candour, a trait not well appreciated by Nigerians and which is lacking in most Nigerian politicians.
And he has exposed the mistaken belief in many uninformed sector that the North is monolithic and that the ACF speaks for each and every single Northerner. Enlightened people know that that is not true and thanks to Buhari for putting that silly notion to bed.Sent from my BlackBerry smartphone from Virgin Media
From: Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com>Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 02:12:06 -0400To: <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>; NaijaPolitics e-Group<NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>; NIDOA<NIDOA@yahoogroups.com>; OmoOdua<OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com>; naijaintellects<naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; <NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com>; NigerianWorldForum<NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com>; ekiti ekitigroups<ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>ReplyTo: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.comSubject: [NIgerianWorldForum] 2011: Buhari Tackles ACF, Northern Leaders
LEADERSHIP
2011: Buhari Tackles ACF, Northern LeadersWednesday, 22 September 2010 02:14Samuel Aruwan, Kaduna .Former head of state and presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari yesterday stated that the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), General Ibrahim Babangida and Alhaji Adamu Ciroma lacks the moral rights to challenge usage of public funds in furthering the chances of Presidential Goodluck Jonathan in the impending presidential election.He also tackled Babangida on his purported commitment to Igbo presidency in 2015.Buhari, who spoke through his spokesperson Ya'u Shehu Darazo in an exclusive interview with LEADERSHIP, argued: "First of all, we want to be understood that I am not condoning the use of public funds to finance party activities. Two, I am also not defending Jonathan; he is in a position to defend himself and has handlers.What I am saying is ACF lacks the moral right now to speak against President Jonathan or anybody in government using or misusing public funds to finance political campaign because this did not start today. It started with Obasanjo and all of us know it. We knew, for instance, when we were in court in 2003, that for the 30 months lawyers of Obasanjo were coming to court in government vehicles. They were accommodated in government VIP guest houses, they were financed from government coffers, they were provided with the State Security Services (SSS) personnel as bodyguards. Where was ACF then? We also saw in 2007 when we were in court that the lawyers of the late Yar'Adua were driven to court in government vehicles supported by machinery of government. Where was ACF then? And we also saw all over the country where governors who rigged elections were taken to courts, the entire government machinery wase in courts in respect of all the governors whether in the North or South. Where was ACF? So this is the moral question and that is why some of us are opposed to the partisan position of the ACF in respect of the so- called zoning, because it is entirely a PDP affair and ACF today has turned itself into an organ of the PDP."There are, over 50 political parties. If anybody felt cheated in his party he or she has option to move to another party and aspire to be whatever he wants to be. The essential thing is to mobilize Northerners and by extension Nigerians to make the right choice and defend their votes. And I would give you an example: the spokesperson of ACF is from Nasarawa State. We saw then how Abdullahi Adamu as the governor was running the state like Hitler. He conducted the worst election ever in Nigeria and, in Akwanga where the spokesman comes from, he did the worst because that was the enclave of the ANPP. Where was the ACF then? So this is what we are saying: when an honourable organisation goes into partisan politics it loses its bearing, and that is what it is today, a PDP wing. A lot of people have lost confidence... and thank God for the chairman who has maintained a dignified position. We challenge them to focus on Northern governors seeking re-election, and those who may want to force the anointed ones on the people. What are they doing in this regard?Commenting on the recent letter written to the leadership of the PDP by a group led by Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, Buhari said: "I read very interesting interview in which Edwin Clark said he attended more ACF meetings than Adamu Ciroma, and he was right because I, for example was part of ACF from March 8, 2000 – that was when it started – and I have never seen Adamu Ciroma; in any case he was one of those opposing ACF because he saw ACF as an organ that was challenging the brutality of Obasanjo on the people of the North, and Adamu Ciroma was opposed to that and he made all efforts to destroy the organisation along with the rest.And so when Edwin Clark said so, he is right because there was fraternity between the ACF and the South-South. What I am saying is: I am surprised that, suddenly, Adamu Ciroma has regained his voice. Because I remember in the first post-PDP convention in Abuja in 1999 the Northern candidate for the chairmanship of the party was the late Chief Sunday Awoniyi. Everybody knew that in that election that was the burial of internal party democracy in Nigeria and Obasanjo was responsible for that."
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