Analysis: Guinea 's Presidential Election (part 1)
October 27, 2010
Guinea's transition to democracy has been a difficult one. The country, which has been ruled by autocratic leaders since independence in 1958, is in the throes of a complex, protracted political crisis. In late 2008, long-time ruler General Lansana Conte died, and a young, mercurial army captain - Moussa Dadis Camara - took power in a bloodless coup. Security forces and the army have been strongholds of power in Guinea for decades, and Dadis' rule was shored up by loyal supporters in the military. Shortly after he seized power, Dadis promised to hold democratic elections, but when he appeared to be failing to uphold this promise, people took to the streets.
On Sept. 28, 2009, a political rally in the capital Conakry turned into a bloodbath as Guinean police and security forces attacked civilians with live rounds, raping women and wounding hundreds. The political fallout from this massacre hurt Dadis' rule; he could either dissociate himself from what happened (which he ultimately did), suggesting that he did not have tight control over the Guinean army. Or he could claim that this was unplanned and that "rogue" elements wrecked havoc. Either way, when faced with a strong international and domestic reaction, Dadis had a difficult time handling the situation, appearing both confused and arrogant.
Late last year, an assassination attempt on Dadis landed him in hospital in Morocco . He was shot in the head, and it is rumored that he will never return to politics. Since the assassination attempt he has not been back to Guinea , and is currently in exile in Burkina Faso . The frightening incident again underscored how untenable the political situation has become in Guinea . Dadis' deputy, General Konate, the vice-president and minister of defines, replaced Dadis at the helm. Meanwhile, a high-level international contact group - which includes Burkinabe president and well-known autocrat Blaise Compaore as the appointed mediator - has been brokering negotiations between the various political factions.
Konate has garnered more international support than his predecessors, and has been making real efforts to bring about a peaceful democratic transition. A March 2010 presidential decree paved the way for a presidential election in June. The first round of the election, with 24 candidates vying for the position, was deemed "fair and transparent" by international observers. Two candidates - Alpha Conde, an ethnic Malinke, and Cellou Dalein Diallo, a Fulani and former prime minister - remain in the race
Since then, though, ongoing tensions between supporters of the two politicians, and allegations of bias from the country's electoral commission, have made the second round of the election elusive. Initially scheduled for August, the second round of the election has been postponed several times: on Sept. 19, Oct.10 and Oct. 24. Last Friday, Oct. 22, the country's newly appointed election commissioner, a Malian general, called off the Oct. 24 poll indefinitely. Earlier this week, amid escalating violence, the election was rescheduled for Oct. 31.
It's difficult to know whether Guinea will emerge from this period of instability and insecurity with the strong, democratic and inclusive state that is being promised by both candidates. In my next two posts, I will try to shed light on the matter by discussing the powerful political role of Guinea 's army and security forces, and painting a picture of the two candidates, their backgrounds and their promises to the Guinean people.
Guinea's post-independence history and politics have been closely
intertwined with the country's military. Reviewing Guinea 's military
intertwined with the country's military. Reviewing Guinea 's military
history can shed light on contemporary political dynamics. The army,
which constituted a pillar of power during decades of dictatorship, is
notorious for corruption, lack of discipline, internecine conflicts
and divisions along ethnic and generational lines. Rather than a
stabilizing force, the military in Guinea has contributed both to an
ongoing climate of impunity and to the silencing of political
opposition. To understand this deeply dysfunctional military, we have
to go as far back as 1958, when Guinea was the only colony to refuse
the post-independence deal proposed by the French. Instead of choosing to become part of a new French Community, Guinea chose complete autonomy from their colonial rulers. While in other places the transition from colony to member of the community meant that key political, economic and military sectors were still controlled by the French, Guinea was on its own following their decision to opt for total independence.
which constituted a pillar of power during decades of dictatorship, is
notorious for corruption, lack of discipline, internecine conflicts
and divisions along ethnic and generational lines. Rather than a
stabilizing force, the military in Guinea has contributed both to an
ongoing climate of impunity and to the silencing of political
opposition. To understand this deeply dysfunctional military, we have
to go as far back as 1958, when Guinea was the only colony to refuse
the post-independence deal proposed by the French. Instead of choosing to become part of a new French Community, Guinea chose complete autonomy from their colonial rulers. While in other places the transition from colony to member of the community meant that key political, economic and military sectors were still controlled by the French, Guinea was on its own following their decision to opt for total independence.
When the French left Guinea , they dismantled the leadership and
bureaucratic architecture they had put in place - often destroying
archives - and cut all ties with the country. Within a month of
Guinea 's declaration of independence, under the leadership of young
unionist Sékou Touré, a new army was formed. Composed of Guinean
soldiers who had served in the French army, members of the former
territorial gendarmerie, and youth recruited in high schools and
colleges, the army was used to entrench Touré's rule for nearly three
decades. The French decision to take apart the military they had built
would hamper the effectiveness and reliability of the armed forces
from the beginning. According to human rights activist and former
Guinean military official Mamadou Aliou Barry, a lack of resources and
inadequately trained officers "handicapped the Guinean army from its
inception."
bureaucratic architecture they had put in place - often destroying
archives - and cut all ties with the country. Within a month of
Guinea 's declaration of independence, under the leadership of young
unionist Sékou Touré, a new army was formed. Composed of Guinean
soldiers who had served in the French army, members of the former
territorial gendarmerie, and youth recruited in high schools and
colleges, the army was used to entrench Touré's rule for nearly three
decades. The French decision to take apart the military they had built
would hamper the effectiveness and reliability of the armed forces
from the beginning. According to human rights activist and former
Guinean military official Mamadou Aliou Barry, a lack of resources and
inadequately trained officers "handicapped the Guinean army from its
inception."
Touré, feeling threatened by young, disgruntled soldiers in the ranks,
and convinced that a Fulani conspiracy was afoot in an effort to
destabilize his regime, purged the military of its "rogue" elements,
sending them to their deaths or Camp Boiro , the infamous gulag near
Conakry . Under Touré, a Malinke, discrimination against other
ethnicities - in particular against the other dominant group in
Guinea , the Fulani (also known as Peul) - was used to create deep
divisions within military and political ranks. Officers loyal to Touré
would often wind up in the better-paid and more prestigious special
forces, including the president's personal guard. To this day
inequalities within the military fuel potentially destabilizing
resentment.
and convinced that a Fulani conspiracy was afoot in an effort to
destabilize his regime, purged the military of its "rogue" elements,
sending them to their deaths or Camp Boiro , the infamous gulag near
Conakry . Under Touré, a Malinke, discrimination against other
ethnicities - in particular against the other dominant group in
Guinea , the Fulani (also known as Peul) - was used to create deep
divisions within military and political ranks. Officers loyal to Touré
would often wind up in the better-paid and more prestigious special
forces, including the president's personal guard. To this day
inequalities within the military fuel potentially destabilizing
resentment.
When General Lansana Conté - a Soussou - came to power in 1984, he
restored some order to the military. Even so, unfair recruitment
policies favoring some ethnic groups over others, and the further
stratification of the system along generational lines, characterized
the military during Conté's rule. During the 80s and 90s and into the
new century, instability in neighboring countries led to the
radicalization of marginalized officers in the security sector, even
as Guinea started sending soldiers to UN peacekeeping missions in the
region. Years of autocratic rule, manipulative politics and weak
institutional control have led to a bloated, scattered and
undisciplined 30,000-man-strong security sector. Analysts agree that a
deep reformation of the security sector is critical to the process of
democratization.
restored some order to the military. Even so, unfair recruitment
policies favoring some ethnic groups over others, and the further
stratification of the system along generational lines, characterized
the military during Conté's rule. During the 80s and 90s and into the
new century, instability in neighboring countries led to the
radicalization of marginalized officers in the security sector, even
as Guinea started sending soldiers to UN peacekeeping missions in the
region. Years of autocratic rule, manipulative politics and weak
institutional control have led to a bloated, scattered and
undisciplined 30,000-man-strong security sector. Analysts agree that a
deep reformation of the security sector is critical to the process of
democratization.
As the end of Lansana Conté's rule became imminent, the traditionally
timid unions and political opposition raised their voices. In early
2007, Guinean trade unions called a strike to protest against
corruption, bad governance, and deteriorating economic conditions. As
a Human Rights Watch report notes: "For the first time since Guinea's
independence in 1958, tens of thousands of people - men and women, old
and young, including members of all of Guinea's major ethnic groups -
took to the streets to demand better government." The movement,
though, was violently suppressed by the army and police: the crackdown
resulted in at least 129 dead and more than 1,700 wounded, hundreds of
timid unions and political opposition raised their voices. In early
2007, Guinean trade unions called a strike to protest against
corruption, bad governance, and deteriorating economic conditions. As
a Human Rights Watch report notes: "For the first time since Guinea's
independence in 1958, tens of thousands of people - men and women, old
and young, including members of all of Guinea's major ethnic groups -
took to the streets to demand better government." The movement,
though, was violently suppressed by the army and police: the crackdown
resulted in at least 129 dead and more than 1,700 wounded, hundreds of
them by gunshot. Previously, in June 2006, demonstrations against the
rising prices of basic commodities were met with similar
state-sponsored suppression, during which security forces shot dead at
least 13 unarmed demonstrators.
rising prices of basic commodities were met with similar
state-sponsored suppression, during which security forces shot dead at
least 13 unarmed demonstrators.
The bloodless coup led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara in 2008 was not
a surprise; it was widely expected that army officers would take over
power at the end of Conté's life. According to the International
Crisis Group, the junta led by Dadis further exacerbated the situation
by using the army against political opponents, fostering tension
between the junta and the rest of the armed forces and recruiting
ethnic militia.
a surprise; it was widely expected that army officers would take over
power at the end of Conté's life. According to the International
Crisis Group, the junta led by Dadis further exacerbated the situation
by using the army against political opponents, fostering tension
between the junta and the rest of the armed forces and recruiting
ethnic militia.
Dadis' ethnicity - Guerze, a minority group living primarily in
eastern Guinea , in the forest region bordering Liberia - also
contributed to increasing resentment, not only within the armed forces
but also among the general population. The Peul people felt that after
decades of Malinke and Soussou rule, the time had come for a leader to
represent their interests. These deepening tensions began to play out
in the open in mid-2009, when Guineans again took the streets,
demanding free and fair elections. On Sept. 28, 2009, a demonstration
in a stadium in Conakry was again met with shocking levels of
violence: 150 opposition supporters were massacred, and more than one
hundred women were victims of brutal sexual violence.
eastern Guinea , in the forest region bordering Liberia - also
contributed to increasing resentment, not only within the armed forces
but also among the general population. The Peul people felt that after
decades of Malinke and Soussou rule, the time had come for a leader to
represent their interests. These deepening tensions began to play out
in the open in mid-2009, when Guineans again took the streets,
demanding free and fair elections. On Sept. 28, 2009, a demonstration
in a stadium in Conakry was again met with shocking levels of
violence: 150 opposition supporters were massacred, and more than one
hundred women were victims of brutal sexual violence.
A Human Rights Watch report alleges that the violence was orchestrated
by senior junta officials, and it is widely thought that Dadis'
personal guard were among those fomenting unrest. None of these
incidents, in which grave human rights violations were perpetrated by
official representatives of the government, have made their way
through a court system. In spite of continued condemnations from the
international community and rights groups, the Guinean court system
has utterly failed to bring any accountability or justice.
by senior junta officials, and it is widely thought that Dadis'
personal guard were among those fomenting unrest. None of these
incidents, in which grave human rights violations were perpetrated by
official representatives of the government, have made their way
through a court system. In spite of continued condemnations from the
international community and rights groups, the Guinean court system
has utterly failed to bring any accountability or justice.
These incidents are symptoms of the indiscipline, corruption and abuse
of power that have come to define the Guinean armed forces. In recent
months, under Konaté's transitional rule, the armed forces have seen
some improvement; the general has been rewarding good behavior and has
been equally as stern with insubordinate officers. Nevertheless, the
tensions surrounding the second round of the presidential election
have been amplified by ongoing violent suppression by police and
military officers: beating, shooting and intimidating protesters,
ransacking homes and generally contributing to inflaming supporters of
the two remaining candidates: Celloun Diallo, backed almost
unanimously by the Peul; and Alpha Condé, a Malinke.
of power that have come to define the Guinean armed forces. In recent
months, under Konaté's transitional rule, the armed forces have seen
some improvement; the general has been rewarding good behavior and has
been equally as stern with insubordinate officers. Nevertheless, the
tensions surrounding the second round of the presidential election
have been amplified by ongoing violent suppression by police and
military officers: beating, shooting and intimidating protesters,
ransacking homes and generally contributing to inflaming supporters of
the two remaining candidates: Celloun Diallo, backed almost
unanimously by the Peul; and Alpha Condé, a Malinke.
It is not surprising that Guinean military officers would attempt to
destabilize the transition to democracy, because the stakes are high:
a reform of the security sector is inevitable under civilian rule. The
army, set to relinquish formal power when a new president is elected,
will likely try to retain some form of control. In many ways, a
peaceful and successful transition to civilian rule will depend on the
willingness of the army to accept inevitable changes.
destabilize the transition to democracy, because the stakes are high:
a reform of the security sector is inevitable under civilian rule. The
army, set to relinquish formal power when a new president is elected,
will likely try to retain some form of control. In many ways, a
peaceful and successful transition to civilian rule will depend on the
willingness of the army to accept inevitable changes.
In the next installment of this series, we will look at the two
presidential candidates - Alpha Condé, the long time opposition leader
and unionist, and Celloun Dallein Diallo, who was prime minister under
Conté's rule -and examine how the electoral process has unfolded in
recent months.
presidential candidates - Alpha Condé, the long time opposition leader
and unionist, and Celloun Dallein Diallo, who was prime minister under
Conté's rule -and examine how the electoral process has unfolded in
recent months.
November 6, 2010
This is the third and final installment of a series that analyzes Guinea 's transition to democracy. For more background, read part I and part II.
Sunday November 7 will be remembered as a historical day for Guinea . This vote, though, will have been marked by turmoil. The events leading up to this election - the take-over by the military junta in late 2008; the junta leader's failure at governing the country; ongoing violence and political wrangling have made this transition to democracy a complicated, precarious one.
Guineans will vote for one of two candidates: Cellou Dallein Diallo, the 58-year-old leader of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea who was the country's prime minister from 2004 to 2006, and veteran opposition leader and president of the Rally of the Guinean People party, Alpha Conde. Both candidates belong to two majority ethnic groups with a history of animosity: Diallo is Peul (sometimes known as Fulani, who make up about 40% of the country's population), and Conde a Malinke (about 35% of the population is Malinke.) The tensions between these groups stretch back to the time when Guinea 's first post-independence leader, Sekou Toure - a Malinke - feared a Peul plot against him: thousands were arrested, jailed in a gulag in Conakry , or assassinated.
This history of antagonism has played a role in this election, with supporters of Conde and Diallo clashing along ethnic lines. Violence has flared repeatedly over the last few months, and both candidates have alternated between calls for their supporters to exercise restraint, and blaming their opponent for fueling tension. As noted in part II of this series, the situation has been further inflamed by the destabilizing role of security forces.
During the first round of voting in June, with more than 20 candidates on the ballot, Diallo took a little over 43% of the vote, while Conde received slightly over 18%. In spite of this large gap between the two, over the last few months, analysts agree that tides are shifting. Interestingly, the delays in the electoral process could be benefiting Conde, who has had the opportunity to campaign more widely across the country, as well as foster political alliances with former presidential candidates who lost in the first round of the election.
In terms of platform and electoral promises, both candidates have been saying that they will be the leader of all Guineans, and promise a unified country. Whoever becomes president will have to address the dismal economic situation, rein in the military and security sector, and deliver social services. Both candidates have highlighted the importance of investing in women and youth, as well as repairing all-but-broken international relations and partnerships with institutional donors. In addition, reforming the natural resources sector in order for the country to benefit from massive exports (70% of Guinea 's exports are minerals) will be critical. Deals with foreign companies will have to be reviewed, and a better redistribution of revenues generated through taxation will have to be priorities for the newly minted president.
Before these reforms can take place, though, the electoral process must be able to take its course unhindered. Recent months have seen an upsurge of politically and ethnically motivated violence. The campaign had to be suspended in September following demonstrations in the capital, and, in late October, supporters of the two contenders clashed violently again, following the announcement of another delay. This lead to a heavy-handed security response, which the UN's human rights office described as "serious human rights violations." In the past week, nearly 3,000 Peul in the north of the country were displaced due to these ethnic tensions, according to the Red Cross. In order to diffuse tension in this unstable atmosphere, the two candidates signed a peace agreement on Friday, agreeing to accept the outcome of the vote and not challenge the results.
What's most important in this election is not who gets elected. Both candidates have been active in the politics of their country for decades, and have been leading opposition leaders. While Diallo was a powerful figure in Conte's government before the military junta take over, Conde has more former ministers in his coalition than Diallo does. Neither truly represents a clean break from the past, perhaps because younger Guineans are too disenfranchised, too disenchanted to step into the political realm.
What is most significant about this election is whether it will be considered free and fair, and whether the losing candidate and his supporters will be able to rally behind the newly elected president to ensure that the country does not descend into more violence.
As the joint US-France statement released on the eve of the election notes, "it is time for Guinea 's dream of democracy, a dream that has been deferred for more than 50 years, to become a reality."
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Toyin Falola
Department of History
The University of Texas at Austin
1 University Station
Austin, TX 78712-0220
USA
512 475 7224
512 475 7222 (fax)
http://www.toyinfalola.com/
www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa
http://groups.google.com/group/yorubaaffairs
http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Department of History
The University of Texas at Austin
1 University Station
Austin, TX 78712-0220
USA
512 475 7224
512 475 7222 (fax)
http://www.toyinfalola.com/
www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa
http://groups.google.com/group/yorubaaffairs
http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
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