Prof:Yours below is politico-arithmetic at best. Truly these are interesting times indeed.Maybe I need to quickly caution here that I do not subscribe to the fallacies of the lineal Northern-Southern divide in a straight jacketed manner. I am not too sure we have such thing again. What I can see, especially with the success of the Ciroma-led consesus committee is that one can still assume that there is a semblance of a monolithic North. Nothing of such exist in the geographical south.I will recommend all to read through the recently posted piece by Prince Asagwara which, with respect to our dear prince, I will call "Igbo Ronu"All the permutations and combinations listed below are far fetched probabilities. What is certain is that GEJ is right there in the open and an average person can postulate on what GEJ had based on his strategies onin the anticipation of the outcome of the Ciroma group :the emergence of IBB. And just as you posited, maybe the emergence of Atiku as Northern candidate may translate into automatic refocussing for GEJ. But certainly not the South. Don't forget sir, that I have said there is nothing called southern or south mind. What we have is the geographicsl south politically expressed as southwest, Igbo and south south. It is yet to be seen whether or not the interest of GEJ approximates south south interest. And if you ask me to volunteer an opinion, my response is a resounding NO.And this explains why I am of the opinion that GEJ might have boxed himself into a corner. Surprisingly the GEJ campaign exhibited so much ignorance about the emergence of Atiku as though the primaries is a fight between GEJ and Atiku.It is not. This is a war of many battles between the North and OBJ;between the North and the PDP with respect to zoning, between PDP and the Alternative coalition of parties(ACOP). The most interesting part is that whereas Ciroma and the Northern establishment sees is as such and will delploy all strategies and tactics to win all the war, I have reasons to believe that GEJ may not see it as such.As things are now, Atiku's emergence will force GEJ to become despearte to win PDP primaries using the incumbency might and OBJ formula. This will certainly be counterproductive. Of course we have seen GEJ s despeartion exhibited in several forms:his antidemocratic disposition to the Ogun lacuna is a very good case study to remind the whole world that in an attempt to get delegates, GEJ will support at nothingAnd who says the North is not ready to do the same to see Atiku through?Maybe the issue that should bother our minds should be how will both Atiku and GEJ manage success or failure to clinch PDP primaries? If GEJ fails, does he have the clout to move on to another party? Will he still be able to conduct a free and fair elections? Will the Atiku train move to another party? We can speculate to no end.....And this is where the Alternative coalition of parties(ACOP) comes in. What will be the response of ACOP to this?ACN will remain a formidable force in the southwest as part of ACOP in so far as ambitions of its chieftains does not tear the house apart. Buahri's CPC will remain a viable alternative in the North which ACOP can effectively utilize in response to the impending PDP implosion.I suspect that Atiku will neutralize GEJ in Igbo land with his choice of running mate and the Niger Delta may end up being a political orphan in this game of intrigues.
From: Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com>
To: USAAfrica Dialogue <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>; NaijaPolitics e-Group <NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>; Naija Elections <naijaelections@yahoogroups.com>; naijaintellects <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; OmoOdua <OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com>; ekiti ekitigroups <ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wed, November 24, 2010 11:44:51 AM
Subject: [NaijaPolitics] On the Matter of Southern Advantage vs. Northern Advantage in this (PDP) Presidency Palavar {Re: EXCLUSIVE : ATIKU AND HIS CAMPAIGN STRATEGY......
Adebayo Adejuwon:One thing is sure: Atiku's emergence is better focusing the GEJ/PDP - and maybe the Southern - mind.The questions that have always been juggling in my mind are politico-arithmetic: what is the best advantage to the South in all of this GEJ / Zoning palavar? Is it:
1. 4 more years of GEJ till 2015 and 8 succeeding years of Northern rule?
2. 4 more years of Northern rule till 2015 and 8 succeeding years of Southern rule?
3. 4 more years of Northern rule till 2015 and 8 succeeding years of South-Southern rule (possibly GEJ)?
4. 8 more years of Northern rule till 2019 and 8 succeeding years of Southern rule?
The underlying assumption of course is PDP rule - but I digress.
Now how would each of the above scenarios arise?
1. If the South eschews zoning, and a Northerner wins in 2011, then there is a distinct possibility of geting #4 - which would be the worst outcome for the South.
2. If GEJ had negiotiated right, including accepting the zoning arrangment, he could have gotten #3, with him (or some other South-Southerner) as the possible succeeding-8-year beneficiary. This would have been the best outcome for the South-South, an obvious sub-part of the South.
3. If GEJ had not eschewed zoning, the #2 would have been the ONLY fair general and best outcome for the South, except that it would be the SE that would have beeen the most liekly beneficiary if Scenario #2 was not negotiated for SS.
4. As it is, if GEJ wins in 2011 - unless he reneges on his plan to be president for only four years - we will get #1, which will be the worst outcome for the South.
You be the judge....under the assumed circumstances, with some of the scenarios including the Opposition (or the Alternative Coalition of Parties) winning.
I approved the above reasoning....those are my ideas, yours are always welcome.
Bolaji Aluko
Reading (not drinking) the tea leaves
--- In NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com, Adebayo Adejuwon <adeadejuwon@...> wrote:
>
> Is Atiku a quintessential coalition builder or what? If push should come to
> shove during the primaries, that single foresightedness alone could make the
> difference between failure and success........Dominic Ogbonna
>
>
> Alagba Idowu/Dominic:
>
>
> We are not God and so we can not accurately say the way things will go.
> It is in this context that I will say both of you are already seeing too far
> beyond the competence of ordinary mortals. Keep it up sirs.
>
> My preliminary remark is that GEJ is indeed a political neophyte. I will not
> even waste my time on him. He is going nowhere. What I will have to say is that
> what the Ciroma group have done is to go around the boy to confront the
> master.GEJ is the boy and OBJ is the master.
>
> The debate surely has gone past whether or not the Ciroma led consensus
> committee group were national or sectional in their outloook. The real issue is
> whether or not what they have come up with will have far reaching
> implication for the ambition of GEJ and the future of PDP. My answer is it will.
>
> Of course Atiku has all the baggages we know of hanging around his neck. This is
> true. But, is anybody telling me that the members of the Ciroma committee are
> not aware of all these? They do and may even k ow much more than some of us may
> know. The truth however is that success in Nigerian politics hardly comes on
> account of not having baggages. The political North as represented by the Ciroma
> group knows this. And that accounts for why they will invest their hope on
> Atiku in the 2011 to cause GEJ to do the followings:
>
> 1) Pressure GEJÂ to become so desperate to want to win PDP primaries in a rather
> ruthless and more dangerous way than OBJ did in 2003 and 2003.
> 2) Force GEJ to negotiate with the political North on terms which will make GEJ
> beomes a weakling if ever he emerges as PDP flagbearer.
> 3)Both ways i.e 1 and 2, whoever emerges the president in PDP just in case the
> opposition coalition becomes rudderless will give the political North enoough
> room to prepare for 2015.
>
> And Atiku surely is one guy able to speak the political language that will help
> the North in achieving this grand objective. He knows the grammar, he
> understannds the sentence constructions and is adept in the appropraite body
> language to deliver the speech to  the various audiences.
>
> We will see more in the days ahead.
>
> Let OBJ, Edwin Clarke and OBJ get ready.
>
>
>
>
> Â
>
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: idowu idowubobo@...
> To: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com
> Cc: naijapolitics@yahoogroups.com; njabasouth@yahoogroups.com;
> umuigbo@yahoogroups.com; talknigeria@yahoogroups.com;
> igboevents@yahoogroups.com; igboworldforum@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wed, November 24, 2010 9:18:15 AM
> Subject: Re: [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] EXCLUSIVE : ATIKU AND HIS
> CAMPAIGN STRATEGY......
>
> Â
> But I digress. Atiku started his campaign by respectfully asking Ekwueme and
> Ikemba to source a Vice President.
>
> Guys:
> Atiku is going to give GEJ a run for his money.
>
> The fight is Atiku, IBB, Ciroma, Audu Ogbeh, Saraki on one side and GEJ/Obasanjo
> on the other side.
>
> I am waiting to see the end of this matter.
> Pronto!!!
>
>
> Idowu
> "Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God." --Thomas Jefferson
>
>
> "There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must
> never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel
>
>
>
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: Dominic Ogbonna summadom@...
> To: NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com
> Cc: naijapolitics@yahoogroups.com; njabasouth@yahoogroups.com;
> umuigbo@yahoogroups.com; talknigeria@yahoogroups.com;
> igboevents@yahoogroups.com; igboworldforum@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wed, November 24, 2010 10:14:10 AM
> Subject: [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] EXCLUSIVE : ATIKU AND HIS
> CAMPAIGN STRATEGY......
>
> Â
> Atiku is indeed a politician's politician. For all his efforts to court the
> IGBO, you will notice that Jonathan has carefully avoided the Ikemba, and has
> not even bothered to pay a courtesy call. What's up with that? You want to be
> Azikiwe, but you will not acknowledge the fighter for, and defender of the
> people's right to an un-harassed existence in their own nation?
>
> To rub salt into injury, Jonathan's folks started their campaign by doing
> ranka-dede before the North, and by particularly bragging about the role they
> played in defeating Biafra. Chei! There are times when a wise man must resist
> the temptation to say what he thinks, and for the Jonathan camp, that occasion
> ought to have been one of them. Jonathan's camp screwed that one up, and they
> only started singing "Azikiwe politics" when it became clear that the North
> would never be hoodwinked!
>
> Really, it is in my opinion a measure of IGBO political magnanimity that the
> Ohaneze leadership, and the South-East Governors, even the non-PDP ones, have
> fully embraced Jonathan as one of their own despite these serious gaffes. Note,
> in case you are confused about it, that Jonathan is Ijaw, NOT Igbo. There is no
> question about that. But if Jonathan looses the PDP primaries, it would NOT be
> because of the South-East vote. That's pretty much the only vote he can count on
> at the moment.
>
> But I digress. Atiku started his campaign by respectfully asking Ekwueme and
> Ikemba to source a Vice President. You know, between Atiku and the other
> Northern contestants, the matter of who becomes Atiku's VP is probably settled
> ALREADY! But Atiku is nonetheless playing to perfect appearances, deftly
> reaching out to the Ikemba and his camp!Â
>
>
> Is Atiku a quintessential coalition builder or what? If push should come to
> shove during the primaries, that single foresightedness alone could make the
> difference between failure and success.
>
>
> Dominic
>
>
>
> On Wed, Nov 24, 2010 at 8:34 AM, Ikenna Anokute ianokute@... wrote:
>
> Â
> >Excerpts.......Fact is , the West is not voting PDP this time around . It is
> >going progressive as an opposition to the entrenched PDP , controlled by the
> >Northern oligarchy and the Eastern swagats . All the states from the WEST are
> >ACN ( Action Congress of Nigeria )Â except Ogun state with an unfortunate
> >governor who's currently stealing their peace . The East will split their
> >crucial votes , but most will go PDP .
> >Â
> >And here comes the Atiku strategy to win . The campaign is betting on the
> >existing nostalgia that is prevalent in the East , believing that the Igbo
> >support for Jonathan is not strong . The campaign is counting on two things ,
> >one is the influence of Babangida on some prominent Igbo leadership , and the
> >second is the belief , in some Igbo quarters , that Jonathan is not truly Igbo
> >and therefore can not occupy their slot in the Presidency ......
> >Â
> >..The campaign is going beyond the primary . They believe they have the
> >delegates wrapped up to secure the nomination . They are now wooing and cutting
> >Chief Ojukwu and Chief Ekwueme . Ken Nnamani has already signed on to Atiku
> >campaign last night . The three , according to an overnight Press release by the
> >campaign , will coordinate the Eastern sphere . And an un-named prominent
> >Itsekiri man will be named , possibly today , as the Director of the campaign
> >for the South/South .The campaign Organization is planning a virtual nation-wide
> >campaign that...." puts Atiku in every living room in Nigeria " .
> >
> >Â
> >The campaign said it is drawing down a list of their officials for the Western
> >conner , but has been unable to settle on any so far , noting that to win the
> >West will come with a price.....Stay with us or read the next issue of African
> >Globe Newspaper.
> >Â
> >Ikennaya Anokute ,
> >Publisher/Editor-in-Chief , African Globe Newspapers .
> >New York , New York .Â
> >
>
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