I am not an expert on Cote d'Ivoire. But my view is that a return to the
state of shooting war is the least preferable option. Cote d'Ivoire is not
Liberia or Siera Leone. It is a huge country, almost structured like
Nigeria, with a huge Muslim population in the North and a South with
Christians and people who worship our indigenous Gods. Lots of countries
bordering the country are going to take sides in this fight. And the
wahala will be unimaginable. While Ghana has opted out of the war option,
most of the refugees will come to Ghana; and we cannot and should not stop
them. With war, what you get is a total mess, the end of which is not
predictable. If the first option is some form of shared governance ( with
low level thuggery) and all its kinks, and the second is a surgical war to
remove Gbagbo, which option is preferable and to whom?
It looks like the UN, USA, EU, AU, ECOWAS, ABCD, EFGH,.., are all for
war, a surgical war to install Alhassan Ouatara. If it will be quick and
surgical, and Gbagbo's thugs and the army will simply fold, then the war
option will make sense. History and recent evidence tell us there is no
surgical aggression, designed to topple a political leadership that did
not create long term chaos, at a tremendous cost to society
When the occupying army leaves, Ghanaians and the bordering states will
still have to deal with millions of refugees, with little or no assistance
from the EU, USA, AU, ECOWAS, UN, ABCD, EFGH,..., those beating the war
drums now.
I understand the impact of a divided government on the process of
democracy in Africa. But I am not convinced that we should rush to prevent
another divided government. True Democracy is a process. Remember the
journey from colonialism to independence, military rules, and the current
forms of democracy in many African counties. No country has achieved any
form of 'good' democracy yet, one that provides the citizens with the
fundamentals of good living: security, basic education, water and other
utilities, jobs, etc. Not the rich oil producing countries or the less
endowed ones. It is a journey and we should not be in a rush to settle
this problem immediately.
While Zimbabwe and Kenya have given shared governance a bad name, this
should not be the reason why we should rush to impose a solution on Ivory
Coast( I am an Aglophone and I love to remind myself as such). You cannot
draw credible conclusions from a sample of 2. That is simply bad
statistics, at the minimum!!
I am all for a shared government, designed to AVOID THE MESS in Zimbabwe
and Kenya. Let our social scientists think about the no-war option. In
the long run, this will be the the most cost-effective option for the
whole region. Who ever said a 50%+1 willer-tales-all Western form of
Democracy is necessarily good for modern Africa, a continent cobbled
together from different nation-states. Where is it written that a well
designed shared governance is inherently bad for Africa?
People, there are no quick wars.
Best
Edward Kwaku Mensah, PhD
University of Illinois at Chicago
On Sun, January 16, 2011 11:38 am, kenneth harrow wrote:
> abdul
> the account of the tunisian revolution, in the nyt this morning,
> indicates that the tunisian military refused to fire on protesters,
> ending the regime of force that sustained ben ali's power.
> i do not know the situation in cote d'ivoire that well. i would not wish
> on the ivorians what the people in eastern nigerian had to suffer from
> 1967-70 when a resolution of a political stalemate led to the deaths of
> millions. my question about your comment (and i agree, i too wish the
> removal of gbagbo) is, what do you think the military, the police, the
> armed forces, not to mention gbagbo's supporters would do if an outside
> force were to attempt this quick and clean removal you are advocating.
> isn't he still there because the armed forces are still supporting him,
> and the mood in the street is behind him? we have a divided country,
> previously at war. is a return to that state of war preferable, and how
> many might die as a result?
> are there experts in cote d'ivoire, on this list, who could speak to
> those questions for us?
> ken
>
> On 1/16/11 11:32 AM, Abdul Bangura wrote:
>>
>> If Gbagbo and his War Criminals believe that economic sanctions will
>> not affect them, then it makes sense to conclude that the only
>> alternative that will get them to stand down is the use of legitimate
>> force.
>>
>>
>> Incumbent Ivory Coast Government says Economic Sanctions Will Fail
>>
>> Scott Stearns | Abuja 16 January 2011
>>
>> Laurent Gbagbo (Dec 2010 file photo)
>>
>>
>> Photo: Reuters
>>
>> Ivory Coast's incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo (Dec 2010 file photo)
>>
>>
>> Related Articles
>>
>> * 3 UN Vehicles Burned in Ivory Coast
>> <http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/west/Calm-Returns-to-Abidjan-After-Deadly-Clashes-113450659.html>
>> * 7 Die in Ivory Coast Violence
>> <http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Five-Policemen-Killed-in-Ivory-Coast-Violence---113343779.html>
>> * Political Violence Kills 5 in Ivory Coast
>> <http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/west/Deadly-Violence-Erupts-in-Ivory-Coast-113273019.html>
>>
>> Ivory Coast's incumbent government says it is not intimidated by
>> economic sanctions meant to force it from power. The internationally
>> recognized winner of Ivory Coast's presidential vote believes those
>> sanctions will eventually contribute to the incumbent government's
>> collapse.
>>
>> The European Union is increasing economic pressure on incumbent
>> president Laurent Gbagbo by freezing the assets of Ivory Coast's main
>> cocoa-ports, its state oil firm, its main energy utility, its national
>> broadcaster, and three banks.
>>
>> European leaders say those firms help to fund what they call Gbabgo's
>> illegitimate government. In a written statement, the European Union
>> says state-run television is guilty of "public incitement to hatred
>> and violence" through a campaign of disinformation about November's
>> presidential election.
>>
>> The European Union, the United Nations, the African Union, and the
>> United States all say former prime minister Alassane Ouattara won that
>> vote. But Mr. Gbagbo is refusing to give up power, saying he won
>> re-election because his allies on the country's constitutional counsel
>> annulled enough Ouattara votes to put Gbagbo ahead.
>>
>> The European Union action against Gbagbo follows a U.S. Treasury
>> freeze of his assets and a ban on Americans doing business with his
>> government. West Africa's central bank says it is blocking Gbagbo's
>> access to Ivorian assets, giving that power instead to Ouattara.
>>
>> Gbagbo spokesman Ahoua Don Mello says the international community is
>> mistaken if it believes sanctions will weaken Gbagbo's hold on power.
>>
>> Mello says Western leaders often make this mistake. The world today
>> does not stop at Europe or America. He says Ivorians can go anywhere
>> in Africa, South America or Asia to get what they need. So if Europe
>> and the United States no longer want Ivory Coast, Mello says those
>> countries will lose because Ivorians can shop elsewhere, but the world
>> must come to Ivory Coast for its cocoa.
>>
>> Mello says the central bank action against Gbagbo will only hurt the
>> regional economy.
>>
>> Mello says Ivory Coast put its money in the central bank, so no one
>> can stop the government from using its own resources. He says the
>> central bank needs Ivorian revenue, so if it excludes Ivory Coast,
>> Mello says the bank will obviously fail.
>>
>> But the bank is not excluding Ivory Coast, just Gbabgo. Eight
>> countries use the West African CFA Franc, whose value is pegged to the
>> Euro. That gives the West Africa central bank stability, while
>> Gbagbo's government can no longer float a government bond, for
>> example, to raise revenue.
>>
>> Ouattara supporters believe economic sanctions will eventually weaken
>> Gbagbo's government.
>>
>> "I think Mr. Gbagbo will listen to the world," said Jean Marie
>> Gervais, Ouattara's foreign minister. "And he will not have any
>> possibility of using his own means. He will see that the entire world
>> is against what he is doing today. We can not see it by now, but it
>> is on, and I am sure he will not be able to stand the heat when the
>> time comes."
>>
>> Ouattara is moving to capitalize on near-unanimous international
>> support by calling for foreign petroleum and cocoa companies in Ivory
>> Coast to stop paying taxes. It is a request with a costly threat.
>> Ouattara says he will make sure that any export taxes paid now to the
>> Gbagbo government are paid a second time to an eventual Ouattara
>> government.
>>
>> --
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> --
> kenneth w. harrow
> distinguished professor of english
> michigan state university
> department of english
> east lansing, mi 48824-1036
> ph. 517 803 8839
> harrow@msu.edu
>
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