this does make sense to me. perhaps we are wrong, but if not, the risks
of war would seem to be enormous
ken
On 1/16/11 5:25 PM, Mensah, Edward K. wrote:
>
> Hi All,
>
> I am not an expert on Cote d'Ivoire. But my view is that a return to the
> state of shooting war is the least preferable option. Cote d'Ivoire is not
> Liberia or Siera Leone. It is a huge country, almost structured like
> Nigeria, with a huge Muslim population in the North and a South with
> Christians and people who worship our indigenous Gods. Lots of countries
> bordering the country are going to take sides in this fight. And the
> wahala will be unimaginable. While Ghana has opted out of the war option,
> most of the refugees will come to Ghana; and we cannot and should not stop
> them. With war, what you get is a total mess, the end of which is not
> predictable. If the first option is some form of shared governance ( with
> low level thuggery) and all its kinks, and the second is a surgical war to
> remove Gbagbo, which option is preferable and to whom?
>
> It looks like the UN, USA, EU, AU, ECOWAS, ABCD, EFGH,.., are all for
> war, a surgical war to install Alhassan Ouatara. If it will be quick and
> surgical, and Gbagbo's thugs and the army will simply fold, then the war
> option will make sense. History and recent evidence tell us there is no
> surgical aggression, designed to topple a political leadership that did
> not create long term chaos, at a tremendous cost to society
>
> When the occupying army leaves, Ghanaians and the bordering states will
> still have to deal with millions of refugees, with little or no assistance
> from the EU, USA, AU, ECOWAS, UN, ABCD, EFGH,..., those beating the war
> drums now.
> I understand the impact of a divided government on the process of
> democracy in Africa. But I am not convinced that we should rush to prevent
> another divided government. True Democracy is a process. Remember the
> journey from colonialism to independence, military rules, and the current
> forms of democracy in many African counties. No country has achieved any
> form of 'good' democracy yet, one that provides the citizens with the
> fundamentals of good living: security, basic education, water and other
> utilities, jobs, etc. Not the rich oil producing countries or the less
> endowed ones. It is a journey and we should not be in a rush to settle
> this problem immediately.
>
> While Zimbabwe and Kenya have given shared governance a bad name, this
> should not be the reason why we should rush to impose a solution on Ivory
> Coast( I am an Aglophone and I love to remind myself as such). You cannot
> draw credible conclusions from a sample of 2. That is simply bad
> statistics, at the minimum!!
>
> I am all for a shared government, designed to AVOID THE MESS in Zimbabwe
> and Kenya. Let our social scientists think about the no-war option. In
> the long run, this will be the the most cost-effective option for the
> whole region. Who ever said a 50%+1 willer-tales-all Western form of
> Democracy is necessarily good for modern Africa, a continent cobbled
> together from different nation-states. Where is it written that a well
> designed shared governance is inherently bad for Africa?
>
> People, there are no quick wars.
>
> Best
> Edward Kwaku Mensah, PhD
> University of Illinois at Chicago
>
>
> On Sun, January 16, 2011 11:38 am, kenneth harrow wrote:
>> abdul
>> the account of the tunisian revolution, in the nyt this morning,
>> indicates that the tunisian military refused to fire on protesters,
>> ending the regime of force that sustained ben ali's power.
>> i do not know the situation in cote d'ivoire that well. i would not wish
>> on the ivorians what the people in eastern nigerian had to suffer from
>> 1967-70 when a resolution of a political stalemate led to the deaths of
>> millions. my question about your comment (and i agree, i too wish the
>> removal of gbagbo) is, what do you think the military, the police, the
>> armed forces, not to mention gbagbo's supporters would do if an outside
>> force were to attempt this quick and clean removal you are advocating.
>> isn't he still there because the armed forces are still supporting him,
>> and the mood in the street is behind him? we have a divided country,
>> previously at war. is a return to that state of war preferable, and how
>> many might die as a result?
>> are there experts in cote d'ivoire, on this list, who could speak to
>> those questions for us?
>> ken
>>
>> On 1/16/11 11:32 AM, Abdul Bangura wrote:
>>> If Gbagbo and his War Criminals believe that economic sanctions will
>>> not affect them, then it makes sense to conclude that the only
>>> alternative that will get them to stand down is the use of legitimate
>>> force.
>>>
>>>
>>> Incumbent Ivory Coast Government says Economic Sanctions Will Fail
>>>
>>> Scott Stearns | Abuja 16 January 2011
>>>
>>> Laurent Gbagbo (Dec 2010 file photo)
>>>
>>>
>>> Photo: Reuters
>>>
>>> Ivory Coast's incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo (Dec 2010 file photo)
>>>
>>>
>>> Related Articles
>>>
>>> * 3 UN Vehicles Burned in Ivory Coast
>>> <http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/west/Calm-Returns-to-Abidjan-After-Deadly-Clashes-113450659.html>
>>> * 7 Die in Ivory Coast Violence
>>> <http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Five-Policemen-Killed-in-Ivory-Coast-Violence---113343779.html>
>>> * Political Violence Kills 5 in Ivory Coast
>>> <http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/west/Deadly-Violence-Erupts-in-Ivory-Coast-113273019.html>
>>>
>>> Ivory Coast's incumbent government says it is not intimidated by
>>> economic sanctions meant to force it from power. The internationally
>>> recognized winner of Ivory Coast's presidential vote believes those
>>> sanctions will eventually contribute to the incumbent government's
>>> collapse.
>>>
>>> The European Union is increasing economic pressure on incumbent
>>> president Laurent Gbagbo by freezing the assets of Ivory Coast's main
>>> cocoa-ports, its state oil firm, its main energy utility, its national
>>> broadcaster, and three banks.
>>>
>>> European leaders say those firms help to fund what they call Gbabgo's
>>> illegitimate government. In a written statement, the European Union
>>> says state-run television is guilty of "public incitement to hatred
>>> and violence" through a campaign of disinformation about November's
>>> presidential election.
>>>
>>> The European Union, the United Nations, the African Union, and the
>>> United States all say former prime minister Alassane Ouattara won that
>>> vote. But Mr. Gbagbo is refusing to give up power, saying he won
>>> re-election because his allies on the country's constitutional counsel
>>> annulled enough Ouattara votes to put Gbagbo ahead.
>>>
>>> The European Union action against Gbagbo follows a U.S. Treasury
>>> freeze of his assets and a ban on Americans doing business with his
>>> government. West Africa's central bank says it is blocking Gbagbo's
>>> access to Ivorian assets, giving that power instead to Ouattara.
>>>
>>> Gbagbo spokesman Ahoua Don Mello says the international community is
>>> mistaken if it believes sanctions will weaken Gbagbo's hold on power.
>>>
>>> Mello says Western leaders often make this mistake. The world today
>>> does not stop at Europe or America. He says Ivorians can go anywhere
>>> in Africa, South America or Asia to get what they need. So if Europe
>>> and the United States no longer want Ivory Coast, Mello says those
>>> countries will lose because Ivorians can shop elsewhere, but the world
>>> must come to Ivory Coast for its cocoa.
>>>
>>> Mello says the central bank action against Gbagbo will only hurt the
>>> regional economy.
>>>
>>> Mello says Ivory Coast put its money in the central bank, so no one
>>> can stop the government from using its own resources. He says the
>>> central bank needs Ivorian revenue, so if it excludes Ivory Coast,
>>> Mello says the bank will obviously fail.
>>>
>>> But the bank is not excluding Ivory Coast, just Gbabgo. Eight
>>> countries use the West African CFA Franc, whose value is pegged to the
>>> Euro. That gives the West Africa central bank stability, while
>>> Gbagbo's government can no longer float a government bond, for
>>> example, to raise revenue.
>>>
>>> Ouattara supporters believe economic sanctions will eventually weaken
>>> Gbagbo's government.
>>>
>>> "I think Mr. Gbagbo will listen to the world," said Jean Marie
>>> Gervais, Ouattara's foreign minister. "And he will not have any
>>> possibility of using his own means. He will see that the entire world
>>> is against what he is doing today. We can not see it by now, but it
>>> is on, and I am sure he will not be able to stand the heat when the
>>> time comes."
>>>
>>> Ouattara is moving to capitalize on near-unanimous international
>>> support by calling for foreign petroleum and cocoa companies in Ivory
>>> Coast to stop paying taxes. It is a request with a costly threat.
>>> Ouattara says he will make sure that any export taxes paid now to the
>>> Gbagbo government are paid a second time to an eventual Ouattara
>>> government.
>>>
>>> --
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>> --
>> kenneth w. harrow
>> distinguished professor of english
>> michigan state university
>> department of english
>> east lansing, mi 48824-1036
>> ph. 517 803 8839
>> harrow@msu.edu
>>
>> --
>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the "USA-Africa
>> Dialogue Series" moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin.
>> For current archives, visit
>> http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
>> For previous archives, visit
>> http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
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>
--
kenneth w. harrow
distinguished professor of english
michigan state university
department of english
east lansing, mi 48824-1036
ph. 517 803 8839
harrow@msu.edu
--
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