Africa Rocks: Politically Speaking
HANK ESO
Gbagbo must leave, but he also represents a bull in a china shop. We
can forcibly push him out with the inevitable collateral damage or
gingerly shepherd him out and save Cote d'Ivoire's infrastructural and
political assets.
A belated Happy New Year to you! Year 2010 was supposedly the Year of
Peace and Security in Africa. In retrospect, not much happened in 2010
by way of peace that one would characterize as remarkable. But then,
it could have been worse.
Africa's seemingly intractable problems – Somalia, Sudan, and Congo
DRC, continue to dominate the political landscape. Add to those, Cote
d'Ivoire and the new notion that the new challenge for Africa is no
longer the conduct of sufficiently free, fair, transparent and
credible elections, but getting those who ultimately lose in those
elections to accept the outcome. This is a big challenge, considering
that more than two-thirds of the elections schedule globally in 2011
will take place in Africa, including that being held in the CAR
today.
As we begin 2011, Africa Rocks, politically speaking, and with
profound lessons for the collective leadership, despots and democrats
alike. Lessons garnered from Cote d'Ivoire and Tunisia should serve
African leaders well, if at all they heed the handwriting on the wall.
In Cote d'Ivoire former President Laurent Gbagbo -- ironically a
student of political history – taught the world how not to lose an
election. In Tunisia, a gripping groundswell of people power hardly
ever anticipated and unprecedented in an African or Arab country,
affirmed that the people are the ultimate repository of political
power and that it is indeed possible to change governments by means
other than the ballot box, and do so constitutionally; true revelatory
lessons, indeed.
However, there are more lessons being hatched, some long existing but
often taken for granted in Africa. There are also lessons for those
outside Africa, with strategic interests in the continent, that there
are indeed, forces and circumstances beyond their control. Finally,
Africans are awakening to the fact that they can control their
destiny, if they act in concert and with resolve. African problems,
after all, are inherently African and so too, are the solutions.
Africans and the world are reawakening to the reality that change also
can come about by the singular act of one man who stands up to say
resolutely, enough-is-enough, as was the case of Mohammed Bouazizi,
the 26 year-old Tunisian fruit vendor who immolated himself on 17
December 2010, thus becoming the martyred-hero of the Jasmine
Revolution that ensued. Had those around ex-president Ben Ali had
their ears to the ground and cared sufficiently about the fate of
Mohammed Bouazizi and his ilk, Mr. Ali and his cronies might still be
in power in Tunisia, not that such leadership is desirable. Events in
Zimbabwe and Kenya and Madagascar, even though they did not fully
unfold, had presaged Tunisia's altered state. The negotiated outcome
in each case, wholly unsatisfactory to all stakeholders but acceptable
as palliative measures, had set the stage for the present impasse in
Cote d'Ivoire. Gbagbo, however, will benefit from a power sharing
deal.
In early 2009, on this very space, I cautioned "The greatest risk to
Africa's emerging democracies, is that some African nations, when
confronted with similar situations, may see the Kenyan and Zimbabwe
power-sharing arrangements as plausible, if not reliable and
acceptable precedent. "(see Dipping Africa's democracy threshold).
Subsequently, I noted that such "incremental erosion of democracy has
happened and indeed continues to happen, because the AU remains
docile, unimaginative and hapless…..wittingly condoning extra-
constitutional leadership changes in Africa by electing to engage in
direct dialogue with those involved, as if they were legitimate
interlocutor." (see Deconstructing Democracy in Africa). Finally,
Africa, it seems, has been aroused to its sad realities.
Democracy for all its attraction is not an easy affair. It is even
harder to convince despots who vouch to be democrats that politics,
especially democratic politics is never a do-or-die affair.
Moreover, the will of the people are not always what they are
perceived to be, not until the ballots are counted completely.
Lessons from Laurent Gbagbo's refusal to accept the ground rule of
international certification of the electoral outcome, which he
personally requested, is a case in point. In power for many years
without any clear constitutional or electoral mandate, Gbagbo only
acceded to holding the much-delayed presidential elections when he
felt certain that he would win and went on to request that for the
electoral outcome to be valid; it had to be certified by the United
Nations. Such a request was unprecedented, but Gbagbo given his sense
of putative rights felt cock sure that he would never lose the
election. When he lost by a clear margin to Alassane Quattara, he
reneged on the outcome. His reaction was classically autocratic, but
hardly peculiar in Africa.
On the East side of Africa, another democratic exercise is in the
offing in Sudan. With the referendum ballots cast, there is no
telling what the outcome would be when the tallies are all counted in
February (tough for some, the independence of the south is a foregone
conclusion). Despite President al-Bashir mouthing some positive
platitudes about accepting the outcome, such utterances may prove to
be mere political inanities and convenient. Despots are a mindless and
unreasonable lot. As such, there is nothing stopping al-Bashir from
joining Gbagbo and reneging on the acceptance of the outcome of the
popular expression of the people's will.
In politics, it is inevitable that context often shapes meanings. If
so, what does the Jasmine revolution in Tunisia signify for Africa?
Is this an emerging paradigm of valid constitutional change, albeit,
not through the ballot box? Which African nation will be next to
encounter such seismic events assuming there is a contagion effect?
My earlier warnings that the altruistic outcome in Zimbabwe and Kenya
did not represent the best democratic options for Africa seem
validated now. Clearly, both the African Union and ECOWAS are not
placing such options on the table for Gbagbo and his cronies; simply
put, power sharing political arrangements between the losers and
winners is no longer a viable democratic option. Given the vagaries
of Nigerian politics, the Cote d'Ivoire scenario could easily make a
replay in the forthcoming Nigerian presidential elections in April.
Already, what should be normal elections has evolved into a divisive
North versus South and Christian versus Muslim contest, mirroring in
uncanny ways, the Cote d'Ivoire elections. One must ask then; how
would Nigeria's ruling party handle a situation should the incumbent
lose?
Here is my take: The emerging political landscape in Africa is one
many African leaders should heed. For Gbagbo and his ilk, it ought to
be clear that the cost of seeking to stay in power far outweighs the
cost of leaving. Gbagbo must leave, given the forces against him;
but he still represents a bull in a china shop. We can forcibly push
him out with the inevitable collateral damage or gingerly shepherd him
out and save Cote d'Ivoire's infrastructural and political assets. The
latter choice seems optimal. Meanwhile, Africa Rocks and Cote d'Ivoire
and Tunisia must serve as stark lessons for Africa's leadership and
others. Change has come!
With neither anger nor partiality, until next time, keep the law, stay
impartial, and observe closely.
--------
Hank Eso is a columnist for Kwenu.com. His observations on Nigerian,
African and global politics and related issues, has appeared in
various print media, journals and internet-based sites.
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