Egyptians have been here before, but the nature of this protest will
unsettle a regime for which complacency is a way of life
Simon Tisdall
Wednesday January 26 2011
guardian.co.uk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/25/egypt-protests
Egypt is not Tunisia. It's much bigger. Eighty million people,
compared with 10 million. Geographically, politically, strategically,
it's in a different league ? the Arab world's natural leader and its
most populous nation. But many of the grievances on the street are the
same. Tunis and Cairo differ only in size. If Egypt explodes, the
explosion will be much bigger, too.
Egyptians have been here before. The so-called Cairo spring of 2005
briefly lifted hopes of peaceful reform and open elections. Those
hopes died, like autumn leaves, blown away by a withering sirocco of
regressive measures and reimposed emergency laws. Food and price riots
in Mahalla el Kubra in 2008 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7381766.stm"
title="BBC: Food price crisis bites in Egypt ] briefly raised the
standard of revolt again. They were quickly suppressed.
But Tuesday's large-scale protests [http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/
blog/2011/jan/25/middleeast-tunisia" title="Guardian: Protests in
Egypt and unrest in Middle East live updates] were different in
significant ways, sending unsettling signals to a regime that has made
complacency a way of life. "Day of Rage" demonstrators in Cairo did
not merely stand and shout in small groups, as is usual. They did not
remain in one place. They joined together ? and they marched. And in
some cases, the police could not, or would not, stop them.
This took President Hosni Mubarak and his ministers way out of their
comfort zone. Interior minister Habib al-Adli had said earlier he held
no objection to stationary protests by small groups. But marching en
masse, uncontrolled and officially undirected, along a central Cairo
boulevard, heading for the regime heartland of Tahrir Square ? this
was something new and dangerous.
The protests' organisation was different, too ? recalling Tunisia, and
Iran in 2009. The biggest opposition grouping, the banned Muslim
Brotherhood, for so long a useful Islamist idiot manipulated to
bolster western support for the secular regime, declined to take part.
Egypt's establishment rebel, the former UN nuclear watchdog chief,
Mohammad ElBaradei [http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/mohamed-
elbaradei" title="Guardian: Mohammad ElBaradei], also steered clear.
Instead an ad hoc coalition of students, unemployed youths, industrial
workers, intellectuals, football fans and women, connected by social
media such as Twitter and Facebook, instigated a series of fast-
moving, rapidly shifting demos across half a dozen or more Egyptian
cities. The police could not keep up ? and predictably, resorted to
violence. Egypt's protests already have their martyrs, killed by
police or burned to death by their own hands. But Egypt does not yet
have a Neda Agha-Soltan [http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/neda-agha-
soltan" title="Guardian: Neda Agha-Soltan]. Pray it never does.
The language and symbolism were different, too. "Enough, enough
(kifaya)!" they shouted in 2005, giving a name to the movement for
change. Now the message is: "Too much, too far, for too long!"
"Mubarak, Saudi Arabia awaits you," the demonstrators chanted,
referring to the refuge of the Tunisian ex-dictator Zine al-Abidine
Ben Ali. "Out! Out! Revolution until victory," shouted a group of
mothers, babes in arms. Across Cairo, Alexandria and beyond, the
banners of the Tunisian intifada waved liked semaphore flags,
wishfully signalling an end to the ancien regime.
But Egypt is not Tunisia. Egypt is a much more efficient police state,
a much harder nut to crack. Its leader is as tough and as canny as an
old fox. Its military and ruling elite is in hock to the Americans to
the tune of $2bn a year ? and the American republic, itself born of
revolt, has no love of revolutions. Mubarak, 82, has held power for 30
years. He is his own, and Washington's man. According to WikiLeaks
cables [http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Wikileaks-
Egypts-Mubarak-Likely-to-Remain-in-Office-for-Life--111678484.html"
title="VOA News: Wikileaks: Egypt's Mubarak Likely to Remain in Office
for Life ], he likely plans to die in office ? and then hand over to
his son.
There is no revolution in Egypt, yet. But, hypothetically, if Mubarak
were to fall, the consequences would be incalculable ? for Israel and
the peace process, for the ascending power of Iran, for US influence
across the Middle East, and for the future rise and spread of
militant, anti-western Islam. And not least, for 80 million Egyptians.
"Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is
looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of
the Egyptian people," Hillary Clinton declared [http://www.dawn.com/
2011/01/25/us-urges-restraint-in-egypt-says-government-stable.html"
title="Dawn: US urges restraint in Egypt, says government stable] on
Tuesday night. They thought that about Ben Ali's Tunisia, too.
Clinton's hurried words show how worried they are.
guardian.co.uk Copyright (c) Guardian News and Media Limited. 2011
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