USA Africa Dialogue Series - It Is About Time!!!

Cote D'Ivoire: Gbagbo removal imminent

By Gibril Koroma.

 

Abidjan - Time continues to rapidly run out for Laurent Gbagbo, the Ivorian ex-president who has refused to give up power after an electoral defeat late last year.

Military chiefs in West Africa recently met in the West African state of Mali and most of them with the support of the UN and the African Union, have agreed to to militarily remove Gbagbo from power as soon as possible. Sierra Leone is one of those countries.

Several delegations have been in Abidjan, the Ivorian capital, over the last couple of weeks including three West African heads of state representing the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Prime Minister of of Kenya Raila Odinga (representing the the African Union, the continental body). Each time they went back home empty handed. Infact Gbagbo has announced that Odinga (who he accused of supporting Ouattara, the man said to have won the election) is no longer welcome in Cote d'Ivoire.

Due to Gbagbo's intransigence (he claimed to have won the election and that there was massive vote-rigging in the north of the country in favour of Ouattara), ECOWAS and the rest of the international community have decided to remove him militarily. The UN, which has forces on the ground, has recently beefed up those forces. The French government also has troops there and president Nicolas Sarkozy has warned Gbagbo to expect a military showdown any time from now.

Two West African countries, Liberia and the Gambia, are opposed to a military intervention while Ghana and Nigeria have said they will not send troops but observers believe international pressure and promises of funding might persuade them to change that position. Another factor might be that Ghana and Liberia, two of Cote d'Ivoire's neighbours, might fear a spill over of the Ivoirian conflict into their territories. Liberia will have general elections this year. So will Nigeria. Observers believe Nigeria would have been more eager if it were ruled by a military dictator like the late General Sani Abacha who sent most of the troops used to remove a military junta in Sierra Leone in 1997. South African president Jacob Zuma is not very enthusiastic about a military solution and seems to favour some other solution; either a recount of the votes or some form of coalition government.

Francophone countries seem therefore to be in charge of this operation, hence the recent meeting of West African military chiefs in the West African country of Mali. Senegalese president Abdoulaye Wade is totally committed to a military intervention.

Military forces in West Africa have announced that they will send a contingent to forcibly remove him from power.Sierra Leone is one of the countries sending troops.

According to sources in Abidjan, the military campaign to remove Gbagbo will be launched in Bouake, the country's second largest city, about 220 miles from Abidjan. The reason for this, according to the legitimate president Alassane Ouattara, is to avoid as many civilian causalities as possible. He said the operation will be swift, intended to grab Gbagbo quickly and take him out of the presidential mansion. Military pundits however say that's not possible. Civilians will certainly die and many buildings will be brought down.

The planned military intervention, as envisaged, is therefore going to be very bloody and costly in terms of human lives and property. Gbagbo has the support of most of the Ivorian military, which he has packed with his supporters, in addition to hardened ex-combatants and mercenaries from Liberia and Angola and probably Sierra Leone too. Gbagbo has also been feverishly stockpiling arms and ammunition over the last couple of weeks from African and Western sources. He is also in control of the main airports and sea ports.

On the flip side, Alassane Ouattara has the support of the West African military intervention force (ECOMOG), well armed Ivorian rebels in the north, a United Nations peacekeeping (very soon peace-enforcing) force, elements of the French army and hundreds of thousands of civilians in Abidjan and other parts of the country.

Sierra Leone, a country with serious economic problems and a small military force, might just send a token contingent in solidarity with the Ivorian people and the rest of the world. Also, Sierra Leonean president Ernest Koroma, as one of the three presidents that were in Abidjan to talk to Gbagbo (see video), seems to feel a moral obligation to be part of of the ECOWAS initiative.

Sierra Leone's defence minister, Alfred Palo Conteh was recently in Monrovia, Liberia, at an emergency meeting of member states of the Mano River Union (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Cote d'Ivoire) where Gbagbo's intransigence was roundly condemned.

Former ECOWAS Executive Secretary Abass Bundu in a recent appraisal of the situation urged Gbagbo to step aside as the odds are stacked agianst him. Bundu wrote:

"All in all, Gbagbo, despite all his shadow boxing and stubbornness, must be a worried man. Given that his socialist friends in France are no longer in office, and the UN has unanimously recognised his opponent, Ouattara, as the president-elect of Cote d'Ivoire, he is now without friends. Where to spend the remainder of his life and his new wealth are matters which must now be exercising his mind, to say nothing about his likely prosecution for human rights violations. All the same, it is better for Gbagbo to accept the offer of asylum made to him by foreign governments or the offer of amnesty by the president-elect while they are still available."

In 2009 I interviewed Helene Dandi an Ivorian community and human rights activist now living in the United States and she was very pessimistic about sustainable peace in Cote D'Ivoire. She said the following about the Ivorian political class:

"I told each of them (political leaders) about my concerns about how fragile the political situation was and asked each of them to do all they could to save Cote d'Ivoire. I asked them to forget their differences and work together in the supreme interest of Cote d'Ivoire, but alas, they would not listen!"

She continued:

"I was even a participant in the national reconciliation forum organized by president Laurent Gbagbo in 2001. I told the Ivorian people about the evils of war. I denounced the excesses of the politicians and urged them to promote tolerance, forgiveness and dialogue. I organized many public meetings, many programs on peace on television, on radio. I constantly talked about the dangers of war to save the country, but nobody would listen."

"I issued many warnings but nobody would listen to me. War finally broke out in September 2002 and they have still not learned any lessons, even today. The political leaders still hate each other, still don't trust each other, thus contaminating the social climate."

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/302810#ixzz1BjWk8N7d