Thursday January 13, 2011
Dear All:
Four surprises might occur in today's PDP presidential primaries as I read the tea-leaves:
- a dark horse might emerge as the candidate; this is the least likely surprise.
- President Goodluck Jonathan will pull out, particularly after the first round of ballots; this is the most likely surprise.
- Vice-President Atiku will win at the first ballot; this is the second most likely surprise
- President Goodluck Jonathan will emerge as the candidate. This is the third most likely surprise.
Whatever happens, PDP and the nation will have to contend with a flurry of legal and political activities un-precedented in the annals of Nigeria's history, the end of which we cannot be certain between now and April 2011 when the elections proper are scheduled to occur. There will be greater heat if GEJ emerges, and sufficient incandescence if Atiku emerges.
Who should gain is the informal Coalition of Alternative Parties CAP - if it can put its act together, which is the hackneyed hope.
Clearly with the CPC having adopted Mohammadu Buhari, LP having adopted Dele Momodu, ANPP almost certain to adopt Ibrahim Shekarau over Harry Akande and Bashir Tofa, and the ACN going to choose between Nuhu Ribadu, Attahiru Bafawara and Seidu Malami (I tip Ribadu), no single candidate will be presented by CAP to INEC. We can then expect only alliance deals AFTERWARDS.
The interesting observation is that there is no Igbo personality in sight with presidential ambitions this time around - except I missed one or two - an example of delayed gratification for hopeful presidential aspirants for 2015 based on zoning understandings and promises of "one term alone" by some leading presidential "candidates." That calculation remains very tenuous - but that zone has been left with very little options this time around with the candidacy of "Easterner" Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan - a case of "damned if you, damned if you don't.".
As someone observed, ultimately, the game-changer will not only be who the candidate of the various political parties are, but their running mates as well as their hand-written-signed-and-delivered-and-scanned-and-pasted-on-Sahara-Reporters commitment to the length of their tenure - one-term truncation or a commitment to the possibility of two-terms as allowed by the Constitution.
Interesting times ahead - and we shall see.....close to midnight tonight!
And there you have it.
Bolaji Aluko
Public Commentator
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