African News
The Ivory Coast stalemate
Wednesday 26 January 2011
Analysis
By Dr. Hassan Sisay, Wisconsin, USA.
In the book, Bargaining with the Devil: When to Negotiate and when to Fight, Chair of the Harvard Law School's program on negotiation, Professor Robert H. Mnookin, raises an interesting argument on how to deal with seemingly stubborn individuals such as Ivory Coast's former president Gbagbo, who after losing the recent presidential elections to Alassane Ouattara has refused to step down. So far, all attempts to peacefully resolve this matter have failed. The situation has been compounded by the conflicting messages emanating from some African presidents. Having initially threatened to unseat Gbagbo by force if he does not relinquish power to Ouattara, some African leaders are now publicly backsliding on the military option and instead embracing a multiplicity of other solutions. Meanwhile, Gbagbo has interpreted these conflicting moves and flip-flopping as a sign of weakness and indecision. Accordingly, despite repeated calls by the international community for him to step down and yield power to his political rival who according to published results had won the presidential elections, Gbagbo has refused to comply.
The first of the African leaders to fall off the fighting wagon is Ghana's president John Atta Mills, followed by Liberia's Ellen Johnson – Sirleaf. Lately, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni is also reading from the same script. Mills and Johnson-Sirleaf support additional negotiations, while Museveni opposes recognition of Mr. Ouattara until a thorough investigation of the November elections is conducted. Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga, appointed by the African Union to help mediate the crisis, was recently in Pretoria to brief the South African leader Jacob Zuma on developments in the Ivory Coast. Zuma quickly reminded Odinga that the Ivory Coast problem belongs to ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), whose members should decide what to do. Further Zuma squelched the military option by stating that, "we need to do something else to help the situation, rather than demand that one of the two leaders go away." Translation, let us adopt the Kenyan and Zimbabwean power sharing solution to the Ivory Coast problem. Is power sharing now the new norm and strategy to thwart the evolution of democracy in Africa? Hopefully not. Power sharing must be rejected because it encourages "stubborn incumbents or electoral losers to negotiate their way to power…"
To muddy the waters further, Nigeria's foreign minister Odein Ajumogobia, in a recent editorial carried in some Nigerian newspapers has added another requirement for the use of "legitimate force" in the Ivory Coast. Among other things, he has called for international support for ECOWAS's planned actions, and specifically requested the enactment of an appropriate United Nations Security Council resolution to justify the impending military action.
Meanwhile, as some African leaders are busy trying to reach a consensus on viable options, Gbagbo's supporters have employed additional delaying tactics by filing a lawsuit against ECOWAS, claiming that the proposed use of force against their country was illegal. Gbagbo himself has also opened another new hostile front against ECOWAS's military plans by unleashing his thugs to attack, harass, maim and kill civilian supporters of his political rival. Oblivious to concerns from the international community, and bent on further escalating the crisis, Gbagbo recently responded to the ECOWAS removal of his ally as governor of the Central Bank of West African States by forcibly closing all branches of the same bank in the Ivory Coast. Described as cunning, and sometimes ruthless, Gbagbo has realized that often the easiest way to solve an internal problem is to find an external enemy. Gbagbo has identified France and the United Nations, as his alleged enemies, and asked both to leave the Ivory Coast. At this point, Africa is running out of options as chaos escalates, and chances of mediating the standoff remains unsuccessful. What is the best next move -fight or negotiate?
Perhaps it is time to adopt the Mnookin solution to problem solving and negotiations. If the use of force is deemed necessary to unseat Gbagbo, such a decision should be implemented quickly, fully, and without additional equivocation. If on the other hand, ECOWAS wishes to negotiate an agreement with Gbagbo, the following should be noted. That some negotiations "risk rewarding unworthy behavior." As Mnookin stated "difficult people are difficult because they have been rewarded for being difficult." That said, the most important outcome in any negotiations is getting an "agreement that is fair, workable, and approved by all the participants." Mnookin warned that "if one party feels beaten, that party will not want to keep the agreement and will spend a great deal of energy to get out of fulfilling obligations the agreement imposes." The above may be important in negotiating a final agreement with an individual such as Gbagbo.
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