Juggernaut Jonathan
Mark Dearn - News Editor at Think Africa Press
Introduction
Nigerian elections held since re-democratization in 1999 have shown a progressive degeneration of the electoral process characterised by rigging, vote-buying and intimidation. National Assembly and Presidential elections scheduled, respectively, for April 2 and 9 have again been tagged as critical to democratic consolidation in Africa’s most populous country. Cast against the backdrop of increasing ethnic and religious violence through 2010, incumbent Goodluck Jonathan’s bid for office in contravention of the “zoning pact” designed to alternate Christian and Muslim leadership places even greater importance on a clean election devoid of inflammatory ethnic or religious rhetoric.
Recent political history
2007 marked the first post-independence transfer of power between civilian heads of state in Nigeria and the nadir of the country’s electoral experience. Muslim, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua – whose death in 2010 led to the installation of the incumbent “accidental president” - of the dominant People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and running mate Jonathan, a Christian, won a poll severely criticised by international observers and Nigerian civil society. The spectre still looms large: The Speaker of the House of Representatives was reported to have told the US Ambassador that Supreme Court justices were bribed by a state governor to ensure victory for Yar’Adua and Jonathan. Oshiomole denies ever making the claim while Jonathan has threatened to sue the publishing newspaper.
Jonathan in command
Jonathan is the overwhelming favourite for the presidency. The PDP’s financial muscle has helped return presidents in every election since 1999, while Nigerian elections historically favour incumbent presidents. The PDP only faces challenges to its share of the vote in the country’s southwest – from the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) – and the north – from the All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP). None the less, Jonathan is attempting to wage an innovative populist campaign fashioned after Barack Obama’s harnessing of technology and social media to target Nigeria’s increasingly urbanised and youthful population.
Background
Jonathan won his chance at a second term after easily beating the more experienced Atiku Abubakar in January’s PDP primaries. His decision to back powerful PDP state governors seeking second terms in office eased him to victory in 31 of 36 states and the breaching of the zoning pact. The primary was not without its drama. During Abuja’s delegate convention, a state governor was involved in an unsightly scuffle with an election official. Abubakar – a PDP founder member and former vice president - has refused to concede defeat quietly, warning of a northern candidate risking a descent into “lawlessness and anarchy” and calling for INEC to rule the result illegitimate. Abubakar claims Jonathan manipulated the delegate list and the “entire voting process”. Jonathan, he argues, ensured his victory by paying $7,000 to every delegate.
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