Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Gbagbo captured

Gloria, I am not defending anything. I am just stating the facts. I am merely pointing out what many on and off this list have said: that you cannot pretend that the 46 percent of Ivorians who supported Gbagbo in the election would magically throng to Ouattara or accept his legitimacy more so after seeing the manner in which he came to power behind French commandoes and on the backs of forces that have massacred and raped Gbagbo's supporters. I prefer not to gloss over the fact that, as evil as Gbagbo was/is, he has about half of the population supporting him, that Ouattara will have a have time bringing them on board, and that the task has been made infinitely harder by the events of the last few weeks. Unlike you, I prefer to acknowledge the fact that this resolution raises disturbing specters of future French neocolonialist military interventions that, unlike this one, may not pass democratic and international muster.  It is you, Gloria, who refuses to acknowledge the complexity of the situation, preferring to engage in an escapist, Halleluyah triumphalism, replete with justification for the excesses of Ouattara's forces. It is you, Gloria, that has defended and rationalized the war crimes committed by Ouattara's forces, blaming them on Gbagbo, human nature, vengeance, and other forces seen and unseen! Soon, you'll be blaming the women who were raped for having an overflowing libido! What happened to individual and group responsibility, to accountability, and to agency? Unlike you, I have assigned responsibility for the crimes on both sides to Gbagbo and Ouattara. And I don't pretend that those who were victimized on both sides will simply embrace and move on or that everyone in Ivory Coast hated/hates Gbagbo or is happy to see him gone and to see Ouattara in power. To say that both Gbagbo and Ouattara should be held to account for the abuses and atrocities committed by their supporters is to side with common Ivorians, the real victims, not to side with the warring duo, neither of whom is a saint. This is Africa; let's wait and see that Ouattara does not turn to a Chiluba before we canonize him. Skepticism, which you deride, is an analytical virtue under these circumstances. If you want to wish away the 46 percent of people who support Gbagbo, it's your prerogative. If you want to pretend that the events of the last few weeks do not have implications for Ivory Coast in the near future or that they will not affect how the French are perceived and/or rekindle debates about neocolonialism, you're welcome to that denialism. Most news stories and pundits are already making those connections. And how do you know that Gbagbo's victory in the first round was secured on the strength of Bedie's "stolen votes," because you were the chief electoral officer during the election? Please get off your know-it-all high horse and stop peddling speculations. The situation in IC is a lot more complicated than the good guy-bad-guy, Ouattara--is-the-savior-of Ivory-Coast narrative. If history is a guide then let's not forget that Gbagbo himself came to power with tacit French support and in messy circumstances that are, in some respects, similar to what we just saw. Of course 53 percent in the run-off gives Ouattara victory, but it left Gbagbo with 46 percent, which is about half the population--or the voting population if you will. I guess your prescription is that that 46 percent don't matter and that Ouattara should just go on with his mission as though they don't exist---as though Gbagbo's exit, with neocolonialist visuals, war crimes and all, would not matter to them. Excellent prescription!

Yes, the task ahead of Ouattara is enormous, but it won't be helped by the kind of triumphalist escapism that you're displaying here. It's time for a sober reflection and analysis on the implications of this messy, complicated resolution. That's not to say that there is a guarantee that another outcome or resolution would have resulted in less suffering, crimes, or bloodshed. We just don't know. On these matters, tentativeness and nuance are needed, not polemical and partisan certitudes that impose blind spots and excessive simplification on us. But we shouldn't gloss over the clear reality of a more bitterly divided IC in the wake of the events of the last few weeks and days. If stating this fairly obvious fact amounts to lamentation in your book, then I apologize to you for lamenting the fate of one of the countries in our continent.

On Mon, Apr 11, 2011 at 8:48 PM, Emeagwali, Gloria (History) <emeagwali@mail.ccsu.edu> wrote:

'By the way, sometimes we forget that Gbagbo actually won the first round of the election quite handily .....'Ochonu


He  fraudulently stole a lot of votes from Bedie and that is one of the reasons for  the Ouattara- Bedie alliance.
You did not get the facts right.

By the way, are you now trying to change the  election rules retroactively? Your ideas may be helpful
in constitution amendment in the future but 53% is a win  according to the present constitution..

Assuming Gbagbo got 80% of the vote,  does that justify the genocide that he masterminded
and the attack on embassies, the UN staff etc. Does it justify  the death squads? What about the
six  unarmed women that were asasinated? What exactly is your point?
What are you defending?

Sure Ouattara has a big job ahead. Help him as best as you can with constructive ideas
rather than lamentations.

In any case the French acted on behalf of the UN.  ECOWAS couldn't/wouldn't do it.
Neither could Mali, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Guinea or Nigeria. In fact it took superior air power
to defeat Gbagbo.

Dr. Gloria Emeagwali

www.africahistory.net<http://www.africahistory.net/>
www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali<http://www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali>

________________________________
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com [usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Moses Ebe Ochonu [meochonu@gmail.com]

Sent: Monday, April 11, 2011 2:59 PM
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com

Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Gbagbo captured

Abdul, your math above seems fuzzy even to a numerophobe like me. Gbagbo got over 46 percent of the votes in the run-off, which was a straight contest between Gbagbo and Ouattara.  Agreed that 46 percent of the votes is not 46 percent of the population but 46 percent of those who voted in the run-off. But the same logic applies to Ouattara's number--over 53 percent. His 53 percent is his percentage of the total votes cast in the run-off, not a percentage of the population. Mr. Bedie's voters, who presumably voted overwhelmingly for Ouattara in the run-off, are already included in the 53 percent. If we cannot extrapolate Gbagbo's 46 percent of the vote into 46 percent of the population, we also cannot do so for Ouattara's 53 percent. Bottom line: this was a relatively close election---the run-off. Gbagbo got more than 46 percent of all the votes cast in the run-off. That's almost half. To the extent that Outtara's 53 percent also represents his share of the people who voted in the run-off and we agree that the respective run-off figures are a good gauge of each man's support base, we have an almost evenly divided country that Ouattara is going to have a hard time governing and reuniting. These divisions have clearly hardened in the last few weeks and is sure to be further solidified by the visuals of today's final showdown. I don't envy Ouattara his job under these circumstances. By the way, sometimes we forget that Gbagbo actually won the first round of the election quite handily and that, were it not for Mr. Bedie throwing his support behind Ouattara in the run-off, the latter would have clearly lost to Gbagbo.

On Mon, Apr 11, 2011 at 12:18 PM, Abdul Bangura <theai@earthlink.net<mailto:theai@earthlink.net>> wrote:
Point of correction, Moses: "46 percent of the population" did not vote for Gbagbo. He received 46 percent of the votes. That is not the same as 46 percent of the population. Mathematical estimates of the total population will put Ouattara's supporters at 60 plus percent of the population. Combined with Bedie's supporters, it is almost a bit over 76 percent.


----- Original Message -----

From: Moses Ebe Ochonu<mailto:meochonu@gmail.com>
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com<mailto:usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Sent: 4/11/2011 10:50:45 AM
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Gbagbo captured

Good for Gbagbo. This could have all ended peacefully several months ago. That said, am I the only one who fear that, despite Gbagbo's capture by French special forces (they did the job and handed Gbagbo over to Ouattara's forces to erase the odor of French neocolonialism and the negative PR from the capture) or because of it, Ivory Coast will not know peace and stability in the near future? Many of Gbagbo's supporters are still armed, are fuming with rage, and have vowed never to accept Ouattara as a legitimate president. The 46 percent of the population that voted for Gbagbo may have been radicalized by the perceived French-UN-New Forces military gang up on Gbagbo and by the war crimes committed by Ouattara's forces. I am not sure this was an ideal solution. The final French (and UN) assault on Gbagbo's forces (they basically won the war for Ouattara) has further complicated matters. Other rulers in French-colonized Africa will take notice and move towards curtailing or outright revoking the military pacts that allow the French to maintain a military presence and to intervene in their countries. In the long term, I am not sure that this template is a good instrument for democratic reclamation on the continent. Shooting your way to power with French and UN military support and firepower support and committing genocidal war crimes along the way even if you've won an election saddles you with a bitterly divided, infrastructure-impoverished, and tumultuous country. It also undermines your legitimacy. Ouattara's ascendance in the last few weeks have looked more like a coup than a democratic transition. The visuals and perceptions are not good and have helped to deepen the divisions and animosities in Ivorian society. Even as we insist rightly that African rulers who signed up for the winner-takes-all electoral model should abide by its rules when they lose, we should acknowledge the human, economic, and societal toll of this model. It is destroying many African countries. In the long run, therefore, we must rethink this model and move towards a more inclusive, consensus-building, and less zero-sum models of democracy.

On Mon, Apr 11, 2011 at 9:02 AM, Emeagwali, Gloria (History) <emeagwali@mail.ccsu.edu<mailto:emeagwali@mail.ccsu.edu>> wrote:
The Associated Press

Date: Monday Apr. 11, 2011 9:50 AM ET

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — The French Embassy in Ivory Coast says strongman Laurent Gbagbo has been captured by forces of democratically elected leader Alassane Ouattara. The move came after an attack by French forces earlier Monday.

An embassy official confirmed the detention by phone to an Associated Press reporter in Paris, speaking on condition of anonymity because of government policy.


Dr. Gloria Emeagwali
Prof. of History & African Studies
History Department
Central Connecticut State University
New Britain
CT 06050

www.africahistory.net<http://www.africahistory.net><http://www.africahistory.net/>
www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali<http://www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali><http://www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali>

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