Point of correction, Moses: "46 percent of the population" did not vote for Gbagbo. He received 46 percent of the votes. That is not the same as 46 percent of the population. Mathematical estimates of the total population will put Ouattara's supporters at 60 plus percent of the population. Combined with Bedie's supporters, it is almost a bit over 76 percent.
----- Original Message -----From: Moses Ebe OchonuSent: 4/11/2011 10:50:45 AMSubject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Gbagbo capturedGood for Gbagbo. This could have all ended peacefully several months ago. That said, am I the only one who fear that, despite Gbagbo's capture by French special forces (they did the job and handed Gbagbo over to Ouattara's forces to erase the odor of French neocolonialism and the negative PR from the capture) or because of it, Ivory Coast will not know peace and stability in the near future? Many of Gbagbo's supporters are still armed, are fuming with rage, and have vowed never to accept Ouattara as a legitimate president. The 46 percent of the population that voted for Gbagbo may have been radicalized by the perceived French-UN-New Forces military gang up on Gbagbo and by the war crimes committed by Ouattara's forces. I am not sure this was an ideal solution. The final French (and UN) assault on Gbagbo's forces (they basically won the war for Ouattara) has further complicated matters. Other rulers in French-colonized Africa will take notice and move towards curtailing or outright revoking the military pacts that allow the French to maintain a military presence and to intervene in their countries. In the long term, I am not sure that this template is a good instrument for democratic reclamation on the continent. Shooting your way to power with French and UN military support and firepower support and committing genocidal war crimes along the way even if you've won an election saddles you with a bitterly divided, infrastructure-impoverished, and tumultuous country. It also undermines your legitimacy. Ouattara's ascendance in the last few weeks have looked more like a coup than a democratic transition. The visuals and perceptions are not good and have helped to deepen the divisions and animosities in Ivorian society. Even as we insist rightly that African rulers who signed up for the winner-takes-all electoral model should abide by its rules when they lose, we should acknowledge the human, economic, and societal toll of this model. It is destroying many African countries. In the long run, therefore, we must rethink this model and move towards a more inclusive, consensus-building, and less zero-sum models of democracy.
On Mon, Apr 11, 2011 at 9:02 AM, Emeagwali, Gloria (History) <emeagwali@mail.ccsu.edu> wrote:
The Associated Press
Date: Monday Apr. 11, 2011 9:50 AM ET
ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — The French Embassy in Ivory Coast says strongman Laurent Gbagbo has been captured by forces of democratically elected leader Alassane Ouattara. The move came after an attack by French forces earlier Monday.
An embassy official confirmed the detention by phone to an Associated Press reporter in Paris, speaking on condition of anonymity because of government policy.
Dr. Gloria Emeagwali
Prof. of History & African Studies
History Department
Central Connecticut State University
New Britain
CT 06050
www.africahistory.net<http://www.africahistory.net/>
www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali<http://www.esnips.com/web/GloriaEmeagwali>
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