USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: ||NaijaObserver|| Re: [Naijaintellects] Re: [NaijaPolitics] On the Matter of a Reality Check on the Oppositional Combinations in the National Assembly {Re: STAR NEWS: PDP Survives, ACN Gains, But CPC Under-performs - This Day

Adebayo;

No problem..part of my avocation around here now is to keep all sides
honest. :-)

By the way, there is another threshold of power in the Senate that the
majority party can still conceivably surmount but with difficulty: the
2/3rd supermajority which requires 73 seats. That requires that party
to win 22 of the 28 seats remaining to be announced, including 16 yet
to be run on. Of April 26.

I am almost certain that the opposition alliance will win more than 6
seats of the 28 remaining...but we shall see.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

On 4/11/11, Adebayo Adejuwon <adeadejuwon@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Prof.Aluko:
>
> Thanks. I was wrong in my calculation of the possibility of a CPC/ACN Senate
> presideny looking at the figures below. You are right.
>
> But CPC/ACN are not sleeing.GMB will become president.
>
>
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: idowu <idowubobo@yahoo.com>
> To: itna@mail.ccs-africa.co.za
> Cc: Adebayo Adejuwon <adeadejuwon@yahoo.com>; NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com;
> naijapolitics@yahoogroups.com; USAAfrica Dialogue
> <USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>; ekiti ekitigroups
> <ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>; naijaintellects
> <naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>; Naija Elections
> <naijaelections@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Mon, April 11, 2011 12:30:53 PM
> Subject: [Naijaintellects] Re: [NaijaPolitics] On the Matter of a Reality
> Check
> on the Oppositional Combinations in the National Assembly {Re: STAR NEWS:
> PDP
> Survives, ACN Gains, But CPC Under-performs - This Day
>
>
> Prof:
>
> Nigerian senator changes party as kalabari woman changes wrapper. They could
> be
> PDP today, by the evening they are ANPP, by tomorrow morning they are ANC
> and
> before you closed your eyes and open it, they are in CPC, and back to PDP,
> depending where the gravy train is.
>
> Pronto!!!
>
> Idowu
> "Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God." --Thomas Jefferson
>
> "There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there
> must
> never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel
> http://www.bezalelskills.com
>
> --- On Mon, 4/11/11, Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>>From: Mobolaji ALUKO <alukome@gmail.com>
>>Subject: [NaijaPolitics] On the Matter of a Reality Check on the
>> Oppositional
>>Combinations in the National Assembly {Re: STAR NEWS: PDP Survives, ACN
>> Gains,
>>But CPC Under-performs - This Day
>>To: OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com
>>Cc: "Adebayo Adejuwon" <adeadejuwon@yahoo.com>,
>> NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com,
>>naijapolitics@yahoogroups.com, "USAAfrica Dialogue"
>><USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com>, "ekiti ekitigroups"
>><ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com>, "naijaintellects"
>><naijaintellects@googlegroups.com>, "Naija Elections"
>><naijaelections@yahoogroups.com>
>>Date: Monday, April 11, 2011, 2:17 PM
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>Adebayo Adejuwon and Compatriots:
>>
>>
>>A reality check is what I will give here and let this go for now....
>>
>>
>>There are 109 Senators and 360 House of Rep members.  That means that a
>> party
>>with a number of 55 senators and 181 Reps forms a majority in each chamber
>> if
>>they form a solid party caucus.
>>
>>
>>Now at last report in This Day, PDP has 52 seats won in the Senate (give or
>> take
>>1 or 2; the other parties have 30 seats), and hence needs just 3 more seats
>> out
>>of the more than 16 states that have not completed their
>> 3-senators-per-state
>>slate  Looking at those states,   I can assure you that PDP will get no
>> less
>>than 17 and no more than 21 more senators out of the remaining 27, meaning
>> that
>>I can see a 69-72-seat PDP in the Senate, down from 83.
>>
>>
>>There is still a long way to reporting the results in the House (PDP has
>> won 82
>>so far, the other parties 94), so I won't speculate on that for now.
>>
>>
>>So no combination between CPC and ACN and ANPP will cause a Senate
>> President to
>>come from one of them, NO MATTER the outcome of the presidential election;
>> please remember that we are in a presidential system.
>>
>>
>>Now if the opposition combination is in the majority in the House, NOTHING
>>requires them to ZONE the Speakership in the same manner as that of the
>>Presidency and/or the Senate.  That would be interesting indeed.
>>
>>
>>And there you have it.  Just a reality check.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>Bolaji Aluko
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>On Mon, Apr 11, 2011 at 2:34 PM, Adebayo Adejuwon <adeadejuwon@yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>>Viscount my brother,
>>>
>>>I diasgree with you even as I appreciate your humility. You are not omode
>>> at
>>>all.You are making a lot of sense sir. You are. ACN has done very well.ACN
>>> has
>>>repositioned the Southwest. At least we are completely free from PDP and
>>> Ebora
>>>Owu.
>>>
>>>What is at stake now is how to rescue this nation from PDP. God has a
>>> reason for
>>>making this assignment one in which Bola Tinubu's ACN and GBM CPC will be
>>> the
>>>parties saddled with this onerous task. I have no idea why this is so but
>>> this
>>>is what is playing out.
>>>
>>>My brother, as we are all in agreement that PDP must be dislodged and it
>>> will
>>>take GMB and BAT to sort it out, let us not create further gulf
>>> influenced by
>>>whatever Peter or anyone must have said. Bear in mind that we have come a
>>> long
>>>way and we are at a point where we can either make history or become
>>> history.
>>>
>>>And the enemeny within-PDP, will not go without fighting.
>>>
>>>This is what I will say for now. So, my brother, be assured that the
>>>negotiations going on at this point recognizes a lot of things. We know
>>> what
>>>gave ACN victory in the Southwest has nothing to do with Ribadu. It has
>>> much
>>>more to do with the resolve of the Yoruba people to say final bye bye to
>>> PDP. Of
>>>course, this would not have been possible if BAT did not stick his neck
>>> out. No
>>>venture, no gain. We also know why CPC is what it is today in spite of its
>>>
>>>newness:the personality of GMB.
>>>
>>>These are the two tendencies on the table.
>>>
>>>Get ready for a braod based party which will emerge after the swearing in
>>> of
>>>President Buhari wherein BAT will be the BOT chair with an ACN Senate
>>> President
>>>emerging from the East after Dora Akunyili shameless conduct is settled in
>>>
>>>favour of ACN while the most talked about person in ACN after BAT will
>>> emerge as
>>>SFG under Buhari.
>>>
> ________________________________
>
>>>From: Viscount <viscount_slim@yahoo.com>
>>>To: NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com
>>>Sent: Mon, April 11, 2011 10:25:37 AM
>>>
>>>Subject: ||NaijaObserver|| [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] Re:
>>>[Naijaintellects] STAR NEWS: PDP Survives, ACN Gains, But CPC
>>> Under-performs -
>>>This Day
>>>
>>>
>>>Oloye,
>>>
>>>Let me start off by saying that I do not believe in political negotiations
>>>
>>>-especially of this kind- where there are preconditions such as: "Ribadu
>>> cannot
>>>rule the nation at this time", "It has to be GMB;BB;Buhari/Bakare". At
>>> this
>>>point, if it is true that a genuine alliance is being sought; then, what
>>> is
>>>possible from the facts on the ground is what should drive the
>>> negotiations. It
>>>is a false start to go into such discussions with a crystallized position,
>>> I
>>>think. Not that it would matter much, but I would feel betrayed were
>>> Ribadu to
>>>cede his candidacy to Buhari without Buhari having ever SERIOUSLY
>>> considered
>>>doing the same. It would be a Judas Iscariot kind of move to some of us
>>> his
>>>supporters considering the kind of abuse we have had to endure from Peteru
>>> Opara
>>>and the rest of the CPC, erhm..
>>>
>>>
>>>Having said that, I am amazed that this is coming up again! But, ki ni
>>> omode mo?
>>>I will now go keep quiet and watch events unfold.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>--- In NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com, Adebayo Adejuwon <adeadejuwon@...>
> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Good questions my brother. There will certainly be a lot of give and
>>>> take.
>>>>There
>>>>
>>>> is no pretending about it my brother ACN has done very well. I mean very
>>>> well.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> What I can assure you sir, and trust me on this, is that what is on
>>>> table at
>
>>>> this point has moved beyond what it we had on table a few weeks back.
>>>> Reality
>>>
>>>> beckons, if you will. The soul of Nigeria is at the centre of this
>>>> discussion
>>
>>>> and people in this conversation are being asked to sacrifice.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I will have to send you a private mail later. Or even call you to share
>>>> some
>
>>>> thoughts that I am not to share in an open forum at this point.
>>>>
>>>> But just know that whereas last Saturday's result is a crucial factor
>>>> thereÂ
>>>>are
>>>>
>>>> other factors too.
>>>>
>>>> As I write, a lot is going on sir.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ________________________________
>>>> From: Viscount viscount_slim@...
>>>> To: NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com
>>>> Sent: Mon, April 11, 2011 8:36:38 AM
>>>> Subject: ||NaijaObserver|| [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] Re:
>>>> [Naijaintellects] STAR NEWS: PDP Survives, ACN Gains, But CPC
>>>> Under-performs -
>>>
>>>> This Day
>>>>
>>>> Â
>>>> Oloye,
>>>>
>>>> What form shall this working together of ACN/CPC take? What would be the
>>>> pre-conditions of such discussions, if any?
>>>>
>>>> Just curious.
>>>>
>>>> --- In NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com, Adebayo Adejuwon adeadejuwon@
>>>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > I do not see any need for anyone to apologise over ACN coverage at
>>>> this
>>>> > point.The truth is that the part has done very well. There was need to
>>>> recover
>>>> > Southwest from PDP .ACN has done just that. ACN has some
>>>> representations outside
>>>> > of the Southwest. For me, this is good beginning.
>>>> >
>>>> > What I forsee is that if ACN/CPC is able to agree to work together
>>>> before
>>>> > Saturday, the prospect of ACN as a party becoming part of national a
>>>> party which
>>>> > a more national outook is high.
>>>> >
>>>> > But ladies and gentlemen,all is not just about mainstream. It is about
>>>> ensuring
>>>> > that Odualnad is intact first.
>>>> >
>>>> > This has been achieved.
>>>> >
>>>> > What I hope for is that ACN must now ensure that whatever internal
>>>> cleansing is
>>>> > required is carried out so that a broader spectrum of people can
>>>> completely buy
>>>> > into ACN brand.
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> >
>>>> > Â
>>>> >
>>>> > ________________________________
>>>> > From: Dipo Famakinwa dipofam@
>>>> > To: dododawa@; naijaintellects@googlegroups.com;
>>>> > naijaobserver@yahoogroupscom; naijaelections@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> > usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com; naijapolitics@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> > omoodua@yahoogroups.com; ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> ekitipag@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> > ekitifocusgroup@; nderg@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> > nigerianworldforum@yahoogroups.com
>>>> > Sent: Mon, April 11, 2011 7:36:34 AM
>>>> > Subject: [NaijaPolitics] Re: [NIgerianWorldForum] Re:
>>>> [Naijaintellects] STAR
>>>> > NEWS: PDP Survives, ACN Gains, But CPC Under-performs - This Day
>>>> >
>>>> > Â
>>>> > Dododawa,
>>>> >
>>>> > But in any case, what is wrong with a Yoruba party. In fact, if ACN
>>>> had not
>>>> > consolidated its hold on the Southwest in this manner, I would have
>>>> formed a
>>>> > truly pan-national Yoruba party. Afterall, I know one party that is in
>>>> just one
>>>> > little corner and it won election into the federal house of reps.
>>>> >
>>>> > Diipo Famakinwa
>>>> >
>>>> > Sent from Samsung tablet
>>>> >
>>>> > Dododawa dododawa@ wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > >True, ACN had a field day in SW and Edo State, but their showing
>>>> nationwide is
>>>> > >dismal. ACN's prospect for national acceptance seems to me,
>>>> poor. There is this
>>>> >
>>>> > >perception that it is a Yoruba Party.
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >Dododawa
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >________________________________
>>>> > >From: Mobolaji ALUKO alukome@
>>>> > >To: NaijaObserver@yahoogroups.com; naijaintellects@googlegroups.com;
>>>> Naija
>>>> > >Elections naijaelections@yahoogroups.com; USAAfrica Dialogue
>>>> > >USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com; NaijaPolitics e-Group
>>>> > >NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com; OmoOdua OmoOdua@yahoogroups.com; ekiti
>>>> > >ekitigroups ekitipanupo@yahoogroups.com; EkitiPAG
>>>> ekitipag@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> >
>>>> > >Ekiti FOCUS EKITIFOCUSGROUP@; nderg nderg@yahoogroups.com;
>>>> > >NigerianWorldForum NIgerianWorldForum@yahoogroups.com
>>>> > >Sent: Mon, April 11, 2011 9:30:31 AM
>>>> > >Subject: [Naijaintellects] STAR NEWS: PDP Survives, ACN Gains, But
>>>> CPC
>>>> > >Under-performs - This Day
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >The Results So Far....according to This Day....
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >Â
>>>> > >
>>>> > >Â
>>>> http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/pdp-survives-acn-gains-but-cpc-under\
>>>> performs/89433/
>>>> > >
>>>> > >
>>>> > >PDP Survives, ACN Gains, But CPC Underperforms
>>>> > >11 Apr 2011
>>>> > >Â
>>>> > >By Our Reporters
>>>> > >The reports of the death of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
>>>> might have
>>>> > >
>>>> > >been exaggerated after all, going by the results of the National
>>>> Assembly
>>>> > >elections so far declared by the Independent National Electoral
>>>> Commission
>>>> > >(INEC).
>>>> > >While the ruling party has lost its National Assembly seats in many
>>>> states,
>>>> > >especially in the South-west, it is still leading the table in all
>>>> the results
>>>> > >that have been officially declared.
>>>> > >A key highlight of Sunday's result was the humbling of PDP’s
>>>> Hajia Maryam,
>>>> > >daughter of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, in the Katsina
>>>> federal
>>>> > >constituency.Â
>>>> > >Of the 94 senatorial districts where elections were held last
>>>> Saturday following
>>>> > >
>>>> > >the postponement of polls in 15 others, INEC has declared results in
>>>> 82, with
>>>> > >the PDP winning 52 seats. The ruling party lost most of its seats to
>>>> the Action
>>>> >
>>>> > >Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the South-west and Edo, and the Congress
>>>> for
>>>> > >Progressive Change (CPC) in some Northern states, specifically Niger,
>>>> Katsina
>>>> > >and Kaduna.
>>>> > >The PDP, which controls 83 seats in the current Senate, looks set to
>>>> lose its
>>>> > >absolute majority having been dealt a body blow by the CPC which
>>>> claimed all the
>>>> > >
>>>> > >three seats in Katsina State, the home of the party’s
>>>> presidential candidate,
>>>> > >Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari.
>>>> > >The ACN also ate deep into PDP’s hold on the South-west,
>>>> thereby emerging the
>>>> > >biggest gainer with 13 seats, compared to the nine it currently has

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