Below is one partial answer – a Marxian one by Stephen Gowans, focusing on the determinate role of imperialism's economic interest. However, I believe there could be important conditioning or "superstructural" forces operating in specific instances that could negate the economic argument or produce something akin to a wild card. For Gaddafi's Libya, I am of the opinion, despite Russia's grandstanding following Gaddafi's death, that the Russians and Chinese virtually made a quid pro quo decision with NATO. They both have burning backyards from which they like to perpetually keep outt NATO and the West.
Also, the UN may be weak, but its general assembly has assumed a morality from time to time that helped to checkmate or at least complicate the more oppressive plans of the powerful. For political or geopolitical reasons, China and Russian may not support a no -ly zone over Syria, and for economic reason or lack of it, NATO may not need to ask for one.
Whatever the case may be, local tyranny that is feared may "result in humanitarian catastrophes" can be expected to make intervention easier and UN resolution backing it up swifter if indeed imperialist powers already feel their major economic interest endangered. More interesting though, is why wouldn't the Arab League apply to the UN for a no-fly zone over Syria?
"The relevant consideration in explaining why interventions occur is not the political orientation of the government under siege, nor its relations with its citizens, but whether it accommodates the profit-making interests of the dominant class in the intervening countries. Does it welcome foreign investment, allow repatriation of profits, demand little in the way of corporate income tax, open its markets, and offer abundant supplies of cheap labor and raw materials? Or does it impose high tariffs on imports, subsidize domestic production, operate state-owned enterprises (displacing opportunities for foreign-private-owned ones), force investors to take on local partners, and insist that workers be protected from desperation wages and intolerable working conditions?
Much as it might be supposed that imperialist interventions target worker and peasant-led governments alone, this is not the case. Regimes that promote national bourgeois interests by denying or limiting the profit-making interests in their own countries of the dominant class of other countries are routinely targeted for regime change, especially if they are militarily weak or have pluralist political systems that afford space for destabilization and political interference. Since the effects are the same in imperialist countries of a local regime, say, expropriating a foreign-privately-owned oil company, no matter whether the company is turned over to local business people, the state, or the company's employees, it is a matter of supreme indifference to imperialist countries whether the expropriation is carried out by communists, socialists or radical nationalists. Whether you're inspired by Marx and Lenin, 21st century socialism, or the actually-existing capitalist policies that the United States, Germany and Japan followed to challenge Britain's industrial monopoly, if you're going to mess with the profit-making opportunities of an imperialist country's capital class, it will mess with you.
Gaddafi was faulted by the US State Department for his "increasingly nationalistic policies in the energy sector" and for trying to "Libyanize" the economy. (1) He "proved to be a problematic partner for international oil companies, frequently raising fees and taxes and making other demands." (2) And his pro-Libya trade and foreign investment policies were irritants to Western banks, corporations and major investors as they surveyed the globe for lucrative profit-making opportunities." - Stephen Gowans http://www.trinicenter.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2353
------------------------
F. J. Kolapo,
(Associate Professor of African History)
History Department * University of Guelph * Guelph * Ontario * Canada* N1G 2W1
Phone:519/824.4120 ex.53212 Fax: 519.766.9516
From: "Farooq A. Kperogi" <farooqkperogi@gmail.com>
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com
Cc: "kenneth harrow" <harrow@msu.edu>
Sent: Monday, October 31, 2011 12:09:06 AM
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: NigerianID | NATO all but rules out Syria no-fly zone
"Nato has all but ruled out the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Syria after the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, warned that any western intervention would cause an 'earthquake' that would 'burn the whole region'."
"Some Syrian anti-government groups have called on the west to defend them as bloody fighting between security forces and armed protesters escalates and the country drifts towards civil war."
Why did NATO respond to the cry for help by Libyan rebels but has ruled out doing the same to Syrian rebels? Gaddafi almost exactly said the same thing that the Syrian president is saying now: that any external intervention would precipitate the country into an internecine civil war. The Syrian president is also murdering his own people in the exact manner that Gaddafi did. Maybe NATO's "spokespersons" on this forum can help me here. Is Dr. Ken Harrow reading this?
UN "approval"? Tell that to naive, unquestioningly trusting little kids!
Farooq
Department of Communication
Kennesaw State University
1000 Chastain Road, MD 2207
Cell: (+1) 404-573-969:
Personal website: www.farooqkperogi.com
"The nice thing about pessimism is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised." G. F. Will
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Nowa Omoigui <nowa_o@yahoo.com>
Date: 31 October 2011 03:02
Subject: NigerianID | NATO all but rules out Syria no-fly zone
To: defsec@egroups.com
Nato all but rules out Syria no-fly zone
Syrian president warns that intervention could lead to 'another Afghanistan' as Nato officials say Libya-like action lacks support
Luke Harding and agencies
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 30 October 2011 15.15 EDT
Nato has all but ruled out the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Syria after the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, warned that any western intervention would cause an "earthquake" that would "burn the whole region".
Despite the success of its Libya mission, which formally ends on Monday, Nato officials made it clear there was little prospect of the alliance establishing a similar no-fly zone to protect civilians and stem the mounting death toll in the eight-month Syrian uprising.
Some Syrian anti-government groups have called on the west to defend them as bloody fighting between security forces and armed protesters escalates and the country drifts towards civil war.
Tanks were reported to have shelled a historic district in the central city and opposition stronghold of Homs today. At least 20 soldiers were killed and 53 wounded on Saturday in clashes with opposition forces in the city. Rebel gunmen also ambushed a bus in the north-west province of Idlib, killing 10 security officers, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. One attacker also died.
But Nato officials say the Libya "template" is unlikely to work in Syria, adding that currently a Syrian "mission" lacks both international consensus and wider regional support.
The UN security council would need to approve any Syrian operation – a step that would be unlikely given Russian and Chinese opposition. "We would need a clear mandate from the international community, as well as support from the Arab League and Syria's neighbours," a Nato official said, adding that so far "no-one had asked" for Nato's help.
Nato's reluctance to get embroiled in Syria internal conflict came as Assad warned that outside intervention in his country's affairs could lead to "another Afghanistan". In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, he conceded that western states "are going to ratchet up the pressure".
But he added: "Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different. Syria is the hub in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want so see another Afghanistan?"
Assad showed little sympathy for opposition protesters, more than 3,000 of whom have been killed, since the uprising began in mid-March, the UN says. Some 1,200 troops have also died, Assad's government says. He admitted that "many mistakes" had been made by his forces, but said his regime was now battling "terrorists".
The Syrian president maintained that those demonstrating against his rule were Islamists and Muslim Brotherhood members opposed to secular rule or "pan-Arabism", as he put it, under which the rights of Syria's Christian and Alawite minorities were guaranteed. He insisted he still enjoyed "popular legitimacy". "I live a normal life. I drive my own car, we have neighbours. I take my kids to school," he said.
With no end to the violence in sight, a Syrian delegation met in Doha on Sunday with an Arab League ministerial committee. On 16 October the league gave Damascus a 15-day deadline to put in place a ceasefire, which ends on Sunday. Since then 343 people have been killed, including 40 on Friday, one of the worst days of bloodshed since the uprising began. Protests have intensified amid fast-moving events in the Arab world: the brutal death of Muammar Gaddafi, and Tunisia's successful democratic elections last week. In a show of support for Assad's regime, thousands of Syrians carrying the national flag rallied in Sweida, a city 70 miles south of Damascus, on Sunday. There have been two other large pro-Assad rallies in the capital and the coastal city of Latakia.
The situation in Syria remains at the top of the international agenda. The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-Moon, said the latest civilian killings were alarming and called for Assad to carry out "far-reaching reforms, not repression and violence"." He also appealed for military operations to stop, and for the release of political prisoners ands well as those detained during recent protests.
China's Middle East envoy also expressed concern. He said the fighting could not continue. Wu Sike told reporters that Assad's government must take "palpable steps" to end the bloodshed.said: "The Syrian government has to speed up implementing its promises of reform," said Wu. "There must be respect and response to the aspirations … of the Syrian people."
The US has accused China and Russia of failing to throw their weight behind western efforts to isolate Assad's government diplomatically and toughen economic sanctions.
Assad has friendly relations with Moscow, a crucial backer and supplier of military hardware. During an interview with Russia's state-run Channel One channel, he praised the Kremlin for its veto of the European-backed UN security council resolution imposing sanctions on Damascus.
"We are relying on Russia as a country with which we have strong historic ties," Assad said.
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