Despite being east Africa's biggest economy, Kenya is accused of
failing to deliver on promises at home
Clar Ni Chonghaile in Nairobi
Tuesday January 3 2012
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/02/problems-kenya-election-year
"Karibu Kenya, hakuna matata," ? Welcome to Kenya, there are no
problems.
So goes the traditional greeting for visitors to east Africa's top
tourist destination.
But Kenyan wags have come up with a new version: "Karibu Kenya, hakuna
matata, hakuna maji, hakuna stima, hakuna gas" ? Welcome to Kenya, no
problems, no water, no electricity, no gas.
This sarcastic take on the well-known slogan reveals the frustration
felt by many in a country that is flexing its military muscles on the
regional stage, but failing to deliver on promises at home ahead of
critical elections in 2012.
Kenyans will go to the polls, most likely in December, to choose a new
president and parliament. The last election in 2007 brought the
country to the brink of civil war amid accusations of fraud. Around
1,300 people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced.
Few analysts are willing to take a punt on whether the 2012 polls will
be disrupted by the same toxic mix of ethnicity, politics and greed.
Kenya is still struggling with these old demons, but also facing new
pressures.
Recent military incursion into Somalia has compounded a sense of
uncertainty and insecurity.
Heavy rains have displaced thousands, ruined crops, caused power
blackouts and turned Nairobi into a gridlocked quagmire. There was a
shortage of water in some places and for weeks, in an unrelated
scarcity, cooking gas was unavailable.
The rains and floods, coming as drought continued to bite [http://
www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/video/2011/aug/17/kenya-drought-famine-malnourishment-video"
title="] in the north, laid bare the weaknesses of east Africa's
biggest economy, which has long been at the mercy of endemic
corruption and government lassitude.
"The economy has been blinking amber all year," said Aly-Khan Satchu
[http://www.rich.co.ke/" title="], an independent Nairobi-based
analyst. "The current account deficit has crossed 10%, putting us on a
par with Greece and Swaziland."
The World Bank [http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/
AFRICAEXT/KENYAEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22600594~pagePK:141137~piPK:
141127~theSitePK:356509,00.html" title="] has revised down growth
estimates, and the Kenyan shilling sank to a record low against the
dollar in October, pushing food and fuel prices higher. The central
bank hiked rates repeatedly as inflation climbed to nearly 20% in
November. The currency has strengthened since, but for many the damage
has already been done.
Satchu says there are two economies in Kenya ? the old one that exists
to serves the interests of a ruling elite, and a new economy based on
IT and mobile technology. Overall, Kenya has shown resilience,
bouncing back from the post-election crisis thanks mainly to tourism,
a thriving ICT sector and the mobile money revolution.
Nairobi embodies this dual-track reality. The city where 60% of the
population live in slums is also a regional hub for IT development and
entrepreneurship.
Politically too, the picture is not uniformly bleak. Last year, a new
constitution was ratified [http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/05/
kenya-votes-for-new-constitution" title="] in a peaceful vote seen as
an important first step towards eradicating the dangers of poll-
related violence. But the old demons persist.
"We must continue to work towards national unity rather than balkanise
our nation along ethnic lines," said the prime minister, Raila Odinga,
who is the frontrunner to win the presidency.
J Peter Pham, director of the Africa Programme at the Atlantic Council
in Washington, says Kenya needs strong political leadership to
overcome its many hurdles this year, but that this has been in
"critically low supply".
The first test will come later this month when the international
criminal court rules on whether six political figures, including
deputy prime minister and presidential hopeful Uhuru Kenyatta, should
stand trial for their alleged roles in the post-election violence
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/29/kenya-deputy-pm-denies-
ethnic-attacks" title="].
Former UN chief Kofi Annan, who helped mediate the 2008 peace deal,
said in December that Kenyans had moved on from the past and wanted no
more violence, impunity or corruption. The question is do their
leaders want the same.
"I think some of the politicians are behind the curve," Annan said.
guardian.co.uk Copyright (c) Guardian News and Media Limited. 2012
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