Sunday, June 24, 2012

USA Africa Dialogue Series - Egypt's Election

Egypt's election: Islamists win, country divided, military controls, the stage is set for western yuki-yuki! 

Islamist Mohammed Mursi Elected Egyptian President

 
The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi was elected Egypt's first Islamist civilian president, capping an acrimonious race that divided a nation whose economy is reeling and where the military has curbed his authority.

Mursi, 60, defeated Ahmed Shafik, who served as Hosni Mubarak's last premier, election commission head Farouk Sultan said in a televised press conference. Mursi won 13.2 million votes or 51.7 percent, beating Shafik who garnered 12.3 million votes or almost 48.3 percent, Sultan said.

Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi waves after casting his ballot at a polling station in the city of Zagazig on June 16, 2012. Photographer: Marwan Naamani/AFP/Getty Images

Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Mursi rally in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Saturday ahead of today's announcement. Photographer: Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images

The announcement drew an uproar of cheers from tens of thousands gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square where supporters of the Brotherhood had been rallying for the past week against the ruling military council.

"The Brotherhood will use the office of the presidency to confront" the military council, Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, said by phone of a Mursi victory before it was announced. "The Brotherhood feels it has a claim to lead Egypt's government because it was elected to not only parliament but also the presidency."

Before the announcement, the military council boosted its authority at the expense of the presidency after a court ordered the dissolution of the Islamist-dominated parliament. Decrees granted the military legislative powers and the ability to play a direct role in shaping a new constitution. The military defended its moves as being in the interests of national security and said that it plans to hand over power by the end of June.

Military Confrontation

Official results were originally due to be released on June 21 before being postponed amid fraud allegations from the two candidates.

The military's moves prompted protests and raised the possibility of a power struggle between the army and the Brotherhood after Mursi's victory. Tensions marring the country's transition have scared away foreign investors and tourists and hampered efforts to secure a $3.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

Mursi inherits an economy that has struggled to recover since the revolt last year, as tourists and investors stayed away.

"The new president arrives in a total institutional vacuum and in a seat essentially devoid of powers," said Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Dubai-based senior economist at Standard Chartered Plc. "There is no constitution to define the presidential attributions, allocate and distinguish the executive from the legislative powers."

Power Transfer

The generals say they are committed to transferring rule by the end of the month and that they regard the candidates equally. Their critics charge they have tightened their grip in what amounts to a coup and will not cede meaningful power.

After more than a year of unrest, a worsening security situation and order and scattered violence, the election has further polarized the country. Out of a field of 13 hopefuls, Mursi and Shafik, the two most divisive candidates in the race, made it to the second round.

Mursi cast himself as the "revolutionary" candidate in the runoffs against Shafik, a former air force pilot and civil aviation minister, who ran on a law and order platform.

His victory averts the kind of unrest that a Shafik win may have caused, said Mona Mansour, co-head of research at CI Capital.

"However, such a victory would strengthen the power of Islamist rule, which will reflect negatively on foreign non-Arab investment sentiment," she said.

Still, "Mursi's economic program supports a free economy with a strong role for the private sector and efforts to attract" foreign direct investments, she said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mariam Fam in Cairo at mfam1@bloomberg.net; Tarek El-Tablawy in Cairo at teltablawy@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net

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